rather than pick out individual stocks to trade, it can often be worthwhile to trade the indices themselves, especially in times of high volatility.

for those so inclined, i attach below charts for FTSE and FTSE 250, though one might equally be tempted to trade Dow or S&P, which is significantly broader in its coverage, or even NASDAQ

for ease of reading, i have attached 1 year and 3 month charts in each instance

S&P going down i take it rather than bouncing back up


actually, that just cannot be so .... go to page 1 of this thread and you can pick up the S&P chart even though it only goes back 1 year

Oscar really got this holiday reversal spot on a week ago and reckons it happens every time there is a 3 day holiday in states. I guess Christmas will be the next one
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MAGnaQseATc&feature=channel

Given the relatively low volumes of late, I suspect most technical analysts are waiting on the sidelines for a strong base before committing capital. My guess is we'll see a strong bounce at some point. Markets normally turn way before the fundamentals do, and will continue higher for sometime, assuming probably that after a year or more of recession the end is nearer than the beginning. If we get to mid/late 09 and things are no better (or even worse) then I would expect markets to collapse pretty rapidly again.

In my opinion.

Strawbs.

Chrysler November sales fall 47% .... but they did FA too, but nevertheless please give money in large slabs to keep my exec jet flying

that was a fun evening on Dow ..... actually got the rhythm right for a change and took profits sensibly and came out well ahead, though have not looked by how much .... not huge beans, but every little helps

Well done cynic nice to get it right! I find dow a bit hair raising at the moment so tend to trade it countertrend after the close especially after a big move[most days] . I tried buying usd/yen when dow was rallying last night and wti which did work but would been far more effective just buying dow as spreads are tighter. Signalwatch is useful to clarify the likely support resistant points and it seems sensible to place orders in those places with appropriate stop losses

I wonder what planet the brokers are on, Panmure has a sell and target price of 40p on ROK, ROK's sp has been around it's current 19p ish for weeks.
2517

Peter Lynch in his book recounts a case of a broker issuing a statement saying since going into administration we no longer rate xyz as a buy!Cityboy is quite an insight into broker notes as well ie ignore them or do the opposite!

strawbs,

You mentioned the need for a long second leg on the FTSE to identify a bottom and I said I'd seen it on the S&P 500. Actually it makes a difference as to whether you take the high/low or close figures. I think the latter will not show a lower low, but the former does. No big deal, but as the chart is on my screen I'll copy it below.



Having just got back from Oxford Street and Mayfair I see no evidence of crunch there - but that could also be a false reading like my bottom !!

TP

Hi TP. Interesting. Do you have anything that goes back further on the left hand side? Has the S&P reached the base of the first up move? The FTSE certainly hasn't, it looks like the base is somewhere near 3000. If you look back on page 179 then my question might make more sense.

Strawbs.

Strawbs,

I can go back 25 years. Drawn in that way you don't see the last spike being lower than the 2002 one.



That's a bar chart. Oddly with the line you do see the latest drop as being lower. Will post that whilst you are reading this.

TP

25 yrs as a line chart.



TP

I'll do one more S&P and then shut up as I'm a bit OT.

Point and figure has its followers. One thing regarded as pretty reliable is the vertical count. The last vertical count is projecting 1175. However for it to be activated the present uprun has to exceed the top of the uprun giving that count - and that means we need so see about 905.

What is promising is that if exceeding 905 triggers the run to 1175 we then move over the blue diagonal running NW to SE and that takes us back into bullish territory.

You can also draw moving averages on a p&f chart and that thick yellow line of 43 days on the columns is a nice tight support on the way up and not a bad fit on the way down. You'll see that also flagging the magic 1175.

All a bit of black art - but ain't it fun - or deadly boring maybe!!!



TP

Thanks. What package do you use? I'm "credit crunch" saving so only use free charts these days. :-) Strikes me that the strong support is around 450 ish. I wonder if things will get bad enough to get that low. I think the great depression wiped 90% off equities .... so I guess nothing is impossible!

Strawbs.

Strawbs,

Are you able to get the icons to respond on your Stockwatch or not like me as you said yesterday that you are on a Mac? Sorry to go off topic.

Hi Stan,

Icons? The favourites thing works OK now if that's what you mean. Looks like they've added some spacing in the cell that shows the star. Seems to work OK. Mac at home, PC at work. So not a major problem if it didn't work on one of them. I do most of my reading at err home, wouldn't dream of doing it at work. :-)

Strawbs.

No not the new one, the 3 on the right ie Trades, News and I think the 3rd is Level 2.

Oh right. Never used it at home. Looks like the icons appear but don't respond to mouse clicks. So I guess it doesn't work on Safari. The L2 button brings up a window but it's empty. I don't subscribe though so that might be normal (for non subscribers).

Strawbs.

Strawbs

"What package do you use?"

Updata


"Strikes me that the strong support is around 450 ish. I wonder if things will get bad enough to get that low. I think the great depression wiped 90% off equities "

Yes, 450 is a support level.

I don't think we should confuse what has happened recently with the great depression - or our ability to deal with it (for all its pluses and minuses).

We are living in the aftermath of a banking debacle. Nobody can suddenly operate without credit when one has tuned your business to work with it. That's our problem now and as far as I know that was nothing to do with the great depression.

TP

Yep, thats right just the same as me then.

Ian assures me that they are working on it, will just have to wait then or sign up to the other lot.