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Dowgate Capital - Capitalising on the booming AIM market (DGT)     

overgrowth - 09 Feb 2005 20:52

Dowgate Capital (DGT) are sitting in the middle of a goldmine!

This company through their sole trading arm City Financial Associates are looking to take full advantage of the "booming" AIM market this year. Dowgate provide NOMAD (NOMinated ADvisor) services to AIM companies and also have full Corporate Broker status which means that they can fund placements on behalf of the companies they represent.

On first sight, the fact that Dowgate exist in the often veiled financial services sector makes you think twice about investing in company such as this because it would be impossible to understand what they were doing - however, think again!

DGT bring new companies to the AIM (Alternative Investment Market). For each new company "floated" on AIM, they take arrangement fees when acting as NOMAD. After the company is launched then for a nice steady earner DGT get another healthy chunk of cash every year for looking after them (note that all AIM companies must have a nominated adviser - thereby securing a ready source of recurring income).

Because DGT also act as a Corporate broker they can get a very healthy percentage for arranging placement of shares with insititutions before a new company floats. In addition, because placements come outside the sphere of yearly NOMAD work, they can also gain healthy percentages of placements which companies may need to make throughout the year when they need a quick injection of cash to speed growth.

Current NOMADships: 28 companies represented (gives recurring income of approx 480,000 per year)

Current on-going Brokerage agreements: 19 companies (income depends on placements)

For flotations, depending on the size of a company, fees charged will be anything from 50,000 to 100,000+ For placements (the real earner), DGT get anything from 3% to around 12% of the TOTAL AMOUNT RAISED - For example a new company raising 3M though a placement will earn DGT anything from 90,000 to 360,000 ! These figures are indicative as actual deals all differ due to circumstances and DGT sometimes take payment in shares - they still have a tasty chunk of Setstone shares and when this Russian exploration company comes back to AIM, predictions are that the share price will rocket. Note that the amount that this little company can earn in fees is huge and every new deal that comes through we know will contribute another healthy chunk into the bottom line. The good news with every new floatation means that it's another chunk of recurring revenue which could go on for years, with DGT having to do very little. New clients gained in 2005 are:

Mediazest (NOMAD & broker) Elite Strategies (NOMAD) Process Handling (NOMAD) Poland Investment Fund (NOMAD) Nanotech Energy (NOMAD & broker) Archimedia Ventures (NOMAD & broker) Red Leopard Holdings (NOMAD) Alba Mineral Resources (NOMAD & broker) Intandem Films (NOMAD & broker) Motive Television (NOMAD) IncaGold (NOMAD) Sportswinbet (NOMAD & Broker) Infoscreen Networks (NOMAD & Broker) Mark Kingsley (NOMAD & Broker) Croatia Ventures (NOMAD & Broker) Pantheon Leisure (NOMAD) Firenze Ventures (Ofex Advisor) FlightStore Group (NOMAD & Broker) Euro Capital Projects (NOMAD) Pearl Street Holdings (NOMAD) Worldwide Natural Resources (Ofex Advisor) Dovedale Ventures (Ofex Advisor) Other 2005 work completed:Neptune-Calculus VCT offer for subs of up to 12 million Advisory work for TGM on London Bus disposal for 20.4M Advisory work for Creightons on property disposal Advisory work for Hampton Trust on company restructuring Advisory work for Interbulk Investments on acquisition of Inbulk Advisory work for Fundamental-e Investments on two disposals Advisory work for Designer Vision re: Design Rights against Centurion Electronics

Click Here for fundamentals and profit projections.
Chart.aspx?Provider=Intra&Code=DGT&Size=Chart.aspx?Provider=EODIntra&Code=DGT&Si

thesaurus - 18 Apr 2005 15:14 - 358 of 2787

How do you think the investors are going to react to results. We know they are not going to be amazing, does the price already reflect that??/

overgrowth - 18 Apr 2005 15:26 - 359 of 2787

thesaurus - From following trades over the past few months I'm pretty sure that virtually all holders of shares apart from companies and employees, either inhabit this board or the one on advfn.

On that basis, everyone is more than aware that 2004 results will be poor and everyone is looking to a bullish 2005 statement from Tony Rawlinson as an indicator as to whether to buy in or top up.

The price definitely reflects poor results for last year and most investors are anticipating a large pay off for Stephen Barclay.

Should the results come in as a minor loss (remember that after interims we were expecting CFP to come in with a small profit for 2004), then I think all investors will be very happy - combine that with a positive forward looking statement for 2005 and I think we will witness a sharp increase in share price.

All will be revealed very soon.....

ptholden - 18 Apr 2005 15:38 - 360 of 2787

Thesaurus

I agree with OG, as long as the results are no worse than expected, a relatively small loss; I believe the bad news is already in the SP from the trading update. Having said that, all will depend on a bright outlook for 2005. Certainly, CFA have floated as many companies this calandar year as they did for the whole of last (7). Apologies for repeating myself.

Regards

PTH

EWRobson - 18 Apr 2005 21:56 - 361 of 2787

The key factor is the market cap. - this is currently about 2.5m at 0.4p. If we can even see 500K pbt this year, plus confidence in future growth, then we could be looking to a cap. of more like 7.5m and an sp of 1.2p. Possible! May take a couple of steps to get there.

Eric

snakey - 18 Apr 2005 23:07 - 362 of 2787

Eric,
that is quite realistic. as I said, all digits,legs and arms crossed but I do expect results to be a little better than expected, or led to believe, and should be a pretty positive statement to accompany them. I did think there would be another deal or two prior to results, or maybe announced with them, but let`s wait and see.

Parsonsmead - 19 Apr 2005 09:02 - 363 of 2787

Results out.........

P

taylormade - 19 Apr 2005 09:14 - 364 of 2787

Well it can only get better from here on, actually not as bad as i was thinking.

EWRobson - 19 Apr 2005 09:17 - 365 of 2787

As per expectations but not hopes. Positive news re current trading and the 7 completed flotations match our expectations and the work in progress matches theirs. Patience required, not a commodity with which I am well endowed!

Eric

stevieweebie - 19 Apr 2005 10:22 - 366 of 2787

Still holding
New team is doing well and bad news out of way.
As Eric said patience required.
Good luck all
Stevie

stockdog - 19 Apr 2005 10:28 - 367 of 2787

Applying the information in the report to my model, I have made the following changes:-

1) retainer income from existing clients reduced from 400k to 315k
2) retianer income for 2005 to date I have from available info 11 "new", which I am taking to correspond to 4 held over from last year and 7 new as per report. If this is 4 too many, reduce income by est. 80k, but I am leaving as is for now.
3) 11 transactions so far this year is what I have as per report - no change
4) reducing anticpated further new clients from 6 NOMAD only/7 NOMAD + Broker to 5 / 6 respectively
5) allowing the above to represent both retainer income and a transaction, plus 2 more transactions for existing clients, makes 13 more trnasactions
6) reducing operating costs from 1.3m to 1.2m (I assume the report means reducing from ongoing, not from total 1.714m cost last year)

This gives me exactly the same operating profit as my previous analysis of 468,500.

I always take comfort from arriving at the same location from two different bearings, in this case based upon last years actuals, prospective comments and published client/transactions.

So I see that we are totally on target for a prospective PE of 4.5 at today's lower mid-price of 0.38p.

More conservatively than last time suggesting a more realistic PE to be 15 (last time 18), this gives a projected mid-price of 15/4.5 X 0.38 = 1.27. Allowing a 25% spread (currently 26% which I expect to reduce as SP rises) this gives a bid price of 1.11p.

I still can't get my view to be less than 1p bid by Xmas, even on more conservative figures this time round and allowing fair safety margin. Assuming all three trades so far today are sells totalling 3,003 in value, it seems the rest of the market agrees there is no perceived downside and plenty of upside to look forward to.

Any views welcome, please.

SD

moneyplus - 19 Apr 2005 11:14 - 368 of 2787

Those two founder members cost the company dear! It's going to take a while to recover but T R gives a good encouraging report and I'm happy to hold .

Ted1 - 19 Apr 2005 11:33 - 369 of 2787

This BB is an absolute pleasure to read with some very talented bods. No surprises in the end of year accounts and I to am happy to hold.

butane - 19 Apr 2005 11:36 - 370 of 2787

CFA Capital cuts FY losses, says progress so far in 2005 satisfactory
AFX


LONDON (AFX) - Broker CFA Capital Group PLC narrowed its pretax loss on ordinary activities to 366 mln stg last year, from 563 a year earlier, on turnover of 1.325 mln stg compared with 1.508 mln.

Chief Executive Tony Rawlinson said progress so far in 2005 has been satisfactory, and that the company's current prospective deal list indicates it should be able to meet its targets over the next few months.

newsdesk@afxnews.com

hjp/

ptholden - 19 Apr 2005 12:25 - 371 of 2787

A most sensible analysis SD and one with which I fully agree. The Results are pretty much in line with my own expectations and judging by the reaction in terms of trades today, (thus far) also the City and private investors. I wouldn't be too surprised to see the SP drift a liitle in the short term, but if CFA can continue to accumulate customers in line with the last year, the future does indeed look quite rosy. The departure of JB and TS certainly would have had quite an impact on the bottom line and the next year without these exceptional costs will surely be improved in terms of profitability. I am quite looking forward to the next Interims which will give a much clearer picture of the future of CFA. I, for one, am happy to hold and will probably continue to accumulate over the coming months.

Regards

PTH

corehard - 19 Apr 2005 12:33 - 372 of 2787

Considering what has taken place over the past six months, outlook is still strong. Founder members leaving would normally have a devastating effect on investor confidence.
TR knows what he's up against here... and to his credit, has not led anyone to believe otherwise, (If there is nothing to say... say nothing).
This was always going to be a long-hauler, and looking at latest posts it seems all are prepared for that.
SD. Once again, thanks for the analysis, helps us lesser mortals see the light.

overgrowth - 19 Apr 2005 13:06 - 373 of 2787

Have just seen the results guys and my thanks go to SD also for the excellent detailed analysis.

No surprises for me either - I was looking at a 300-400K loss so well within my predicted limits. We can now forget those one-off costs due to pay offs and look forward to a mean lean company machine going forwards.

It was particulary heartening to see that although 2004 transactions were much lower than expected that the turnover from Corporate fees and Commissions in 2004 (1,325) was still up on the previous year (1,199).

Also good to see that all the spare cash has not been dwindled away due to pay-offs - 500,000 at year end is very healthy.

TR and team have the right idea by committing to work hard and increase recurring income before looking at expanding the team. The more recurring work they get the better and ultimately I can see recurring income covering operating expenses totally which would enable the company to post some very tasty profits indeed.

Good to see that there was no adverse reaction from the market as predicted and now all the bad news is out of the way and we have a positive forward statement it looks as though the price today is at the bottom of the cycle - time to buy again methinks.

butane - 19 Apr 2005 13:17 - 374 of 2787

Currently .37p to buy.

sidtrix - 19 Apr 2005 13:21 - 375 of 2787

Was offered .35p to buy (HoodlessBrennan)

stockdog - 19 Apr 2005 13:48 - 376 of 2787

I'm certainly looking to buy more over the next few days (just wait a beat for uncertainty in the general market to resolve itself, I think)

SD

Adacol - 19 Apr 2005 14:04 - 377 of 2787

Have just bought 566,000 at 0.35p....showing as a sell!
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