rather than pick out individual stocks to trade, it can often be worthwhile to trade the indices themselves, especially in times of high volatility.

for those so inclined, i attach below charts for FTSE and FTSE 250, though one might equally be tempted to trade Dow or S&P, which is significantly broader in its coverage, or even NASDAQ

for ease of reading, i have attached 1 year and 3 month charts in each instance

I'll do one more S&P and then shut up as I'm a bit OT.

Point and figure has its followers. One thing regarded as pretty reliable is the vertical count. The last vertical count is projecting 1175. However for it to be activated the present uprun has to exceed the top of the uprun giving that count - and that means we need so see about 905.

What is promising is that if exceeding 905 triggers the run to 1175 we then move over the blue diagonal running NW to SE and that takes us back into bullish territory.

You can also draw moving averages on a p&f chart and that thick yellow line of 43 days on the columns is a nice tight support on the way up and not a bad fit on the way down. You'll see that also flagging the magic 1175.

All a bit of black art - but ain't it fun - or deadly boring maybe!!!



TP

Thanks. What package do you use? I'm "credit crunch" saving so only use free charts these days. :-) Strikes me that the strong support is around 450 ish. I wonder if things will get bad enough to get that low. I think the great depression wiped 90% off equities .... so I guess nothing is impossible!

Strawbs.

Strawbs,

Are you able to get the icons to respond on your Stockwatch or not like me as you said yesterday that you are on a Mac? Sorry to go off topic.

Hi Stan,

Icons? The favourites thing works OK now if that's what you mean. Looks like they've added some spacing in the cell that shows the star. Seems to work OK. Mac at home, PC at work. So not a major problem if it didn't work on one of them. I do most of my reading at err home, wouldn't dream of doing it at work. :-)

Strawbs.

No not the new one, the 3 on the right ie Trades, News and I think the 3rd is Level 2.

Oh right. Never used it at home. Looks like the icons appear but don't respond to mouse clicks. So I guess it doesn't work on Safari. The L2 button brings up a window but it's empty. I don't subscribe though so that might be normal (for non subscribers).

Strawbs.

Strawbs

"What package do you use?"

Updata


"Strikes me that the strong support is around 450 ish. I wonder if things will get bad enough to get that low. I think the great depression wiped 90% off equities "

Yes, 450 is a support level.

I don't think we should confuse what has happened recently with the great depression - or our ability to deal with it (for all its pluses and minuses).

We are living in the aftermath of a banking debacle. Nobody can suddenly operate without credit when one has tuned your business to work with it. That's our problem now and as far as I know that was nothing to do with the great depression.

TP

Yep, thats right just the same as me then.

Ian assures me that they are working on it, will just have to wait then or sign up to the other lot.

In case anyone asks:-

"Causes of the Great Depression

From Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

Jump to: navigation, search

The causes of the Great Depression are still a matter of active debate among economists. The specific economic events that took place during the Great Depression have been studied thoroughly: a deflation in asset and commodity prices, dramatic drops in demand and credit, and disruption of trade, ultimately resulting in widespread poverty and unemployment. However, historians lack consensus in describing the causal relationship between various events and the role of government economic policy in causing or ameliorating the Depression. One popular theory is that the Depression was caused by the vast economic boom in the 1920s, and that by the time the boom reached its peak in 1929, investors became fearful of their stock shares as markets expanded some focus to Europe, which still had nations that were economically damaged from World War I [1]."

One reference to credit there - but hardly the main cause.

TP

No. But the "human" reaction to the debt unwinding will probably be the same. In complex systems (economies, markets etc.) the common elements (humans) tend to have common responses. The debt in this case is not only higher than the 30's, it's worldwide, and business activity and human psychology may well amplify the problem. "Just in time" trading models leave little room for manoeuvre when money supply stops. Time will tell.

The great depression was a human feeling, not just an economic event.

In my opinion.

Strawbs.

Stan,

Yep. Guess so. Not a big loss to me though as I only (occasionally) use it at work... :-)

Strawbs.

..Yes of course -):

Despite strong Black Friday sales, analysts say overall November results - and the holiday season - will be dismal. ..... so though Dow up again tonight, looks to me very much like an indian rope trick

More unemployment figures Thursday and Friday along with rate decisions may just test the markets resolve.

Strawbs

glad i had ther sense to bank a respectable profit on FTSE long last night just after Dow close .... FTSE was then +40 or so from London close

Pound is getting a major kick in the goolies as well

Historic movement of FTSE on BOE interest rate day this year has been bearish, whatever the decision. So with the index moving up I will favour the short side today.

It's worth looking back at the 8th October, the first cut since April, and the index was all over the place.

When is the next FED rate review? Can't seem to find it on the forward calender.

Hi Harry

According to my calender FED rate review is due 16th December.

Thanks Spit.
BoE cut rate by 1% so we shall now see what happens in the U.K.
Inflation will now presumably be at a higher rate than most new investment/savings rates which is a bit of a downer for those people sitting on cash.