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The Forex Thread (FX)     

hilary - 31 Dec 2003 13:00

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Forex rebates on every trade - win or lose!

mg - 04 Mar 2005 17:18 - 3616 of 11056

choccie
Don't be rude - or over-excited - yes I did - and now I'm gagging for it - shifted my limits to 19185 - 'cos I'm a hungry beast wot's in need of gratification and stuff .....

chocolat - 04 Mar 2005 17:35 - 3617 of 11056

Well I've gone long 19236 - hope I pressed the right button :S

Just put a stop in at 28 so I can go and raid the fridge. *gulp*

mg - 04 Mar 2005 17:52 - 3618 of 11056

Choccie Contrarian - I think I spelt that right - We're going DOWN on the bulls - brace yersel' sheila - it's gonna get tuff on the fridge gobblers ;)

chocolat - 04 Mar 2005 18:04 - 3619 of 11056

I'm braced, I'm braced :)

chocolat - 04 Mar 2005 18:22 - 3620 of 11056

Well this is ridikliuss - if in doubt, hoover the fridge again.

BrianTrayda - 06 Mar 2005 23:03 - 3621 of 11056

Something from FT - Warren Buffet.

Mr Buffett believes the dollar has further to fall and the US trade deficit risks turning America into a sharecropper's society. It is only fair to point out that the chairman of Berkshire Hathaway is talking his own book. The value of the group's foreign exchange contracts mostly short positions against the dollar increased to $21.4bn at December 31 2004 from $12bn the previous year. That caveat aside, Mr Buffett's reasoning has merit.

chocolat - 06 Mar 2005 23:09 - 3622 of 11056

Absolutely, BT - and I did question the accolade he has of being the world's greatest investor over breakfast.

chocolat - 06 Mar 2005 23:28 - 3623 of 11056

Still long ;)

hodgins - 07 Mar 2005 07:27 - 3624 of 11056

retracement or leading to flag higher?

mostrader - 07 Mar 2005 07:44 - 3625 of 11056

hodgins mng not to sure i was shrt @ 265 just close @ the fig loking @ 185 260/70

chocolat - 07 Mar 2005 10:22 - 3626 of 11056

Scalped a few more last night before I got stopped out :)
Still watching to go long again

mg - 07 Mar 2005 13:47 - 3627 of 11056

Just popping back in to gloat about my short positions taken out on Friday - now closed from 245, 249 and 254 - big gains but only relatively small positions.

Now long from 125 and 130

chocolat - 07 Mar 2005 13:51 - 3628 of 11056

:)
It's not easy being a contrarian...
managed 20 this morning, in again now, same as you mg, 125

mg - 07 Mar 2005 17:08 - 3629 of 11056

Returned to close both out at 171

chocolat - 08 Mar 2005 08:38 - 3630 of 11056

Great stuff, cableman ;)
Still long, with the odd bit of shaving and re-entries :)

hilary - 08 Mar 2005 09:17 - 3631 of 11056

You guys might like to look at the Sterling Yen cross. Not necessarily for intraday action, but instead for momentum trading. Once it moves into a trend it frequently stays there for days or weeks.

dbpjpychart.jpg

You could use a moving average strategy or an overbought/sold strategy or a pivot strategy (similar to below) and they should keep you in the trade for some time without knocking you out.

gbpjpyspreadsheet.jpg

Seymour Clearly - 08 Mar 2005 09:29 - 3632 of 11056

Thanks for this Hilary - just the sort of thing I'm looking for. Do you set your own spreadsheet up for pivots?

chocolat - 08 Mar 2005 09:31 - 3633 of 11056

That's brill, Hils!

mostrader - 08 Mar 2005 09:54 - 3634 of 11056

cheers hil ill take a look. mng choco

hilary - 08 Mar 2005 10:08 - 3635 of 11056

Seymour,

Yes, that's my own spreadsheet.

If you take that downleg from just before Xmas to mid-January as an example and assume that you're a muppet trader who consistently buys at the intraday high and sells at the intraday low, you would have gone short on 22nd Dec at 198.68 and been stopped on 18th Jan when it hit 192.12 for a minimum profit of 656 pips. Not bad for 3 weeks work!

Now let's also assume that you were trading a contract with an initial margin requirement of 200 and that every time the position moved 100 pips in your favour you used the open profit from the position to increase the position by 50%. So for instance, if you opened a position at 10/pip (using 2,000 margin) you would add 5/pip when it hit 197.68 and then a further 7.50/pip at 196.68 and so on. By the time you were stopped, your tally would read like this:

656 pips at 10
556 pips at 5
456 pips at 7
356 pips at 11
256 pips at 16
156 pips at 24
56 pips at 36

which would make a grand total of 26,304. In actual fact there would be some losses to include as well, as you would have added to the position at 191.68 and below and these would have resulted in a loss on those trades. I did assume at the outset, however, that you'd entered the market at the worst possible time and a little bit of poetic license is obviously needed. Even so, it should have been easy to net over 20k from a 2k trade in around 3 weeks. That makes it a quick 10-bagger and if you then repeated the process on the ensuing upleg it would be easypeasy to make astronomical sums in a few short weeks.

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