Forex rebates on every trade - win or lose!

Something from FT - Warren Buffet.

Mr Buffett believes the dollar has further to fall and the US trade deficit risks turning America into a sharecropper's society. It is only fair to point out that the chairman of Berkshire Hathaway is talking his own book. The value of the group's foreign exchange contracts mostly short positions against the dollar increased to $21.4bn at December 31 2004 from $12bn the previous year. That caveat aside, Mr Buffett's reasoning has merit.

Absolutely, BT - and I did question the accolade he has of being the world's greatest investor over breakfast.

Still long ;)

retracement or leading to flag higher?

hodgins mng not to sure i was shrt @ 265 just close @ the fig loking @ 185 260/70

Scalped a few more last night before I got stopped out :)
Still watching to go long again

Just popping back in to gloat about my short positions taken out on Friday - now closed from 245, 249 and 254 - big gains but only relatively small positions.

Now long from 125 and 130

:)
It's not easy being a contrarian...
managed 20 this morning, in again now, same as you mg, 125

Returned to close both out at 171

Great stuff, cableman ;)
Still long, with the odd bit of shaving and re-entries :)

You guys might like to look at the Sterling Yen cross. Not necessarily for intraday action, but instead for momentum trading. Once it moves into a trend it frequently stays there for days or weeks.



You could use a moving average strategy or an overbought/sold strategy or a pivot strategy (similar to below) and they should keep you in the trade for some time without knocking you out.

Thanks for this Hilary - just the sort of thing I'm looking for. Do you set your own spreadsheet up for pivots?

That's brill, Hils!

cheers hil ill take a look. mng choco

Seymour,

Yes, that's my own spreadsheet.

If you take that downleg from just before Xmas to mid-January as an example and assume that you're a muppet trader who consistently buys at the intraday high and sells at the intraday low, you would have gone short on 22nd Dec at 198.68 and been stopped on 18th Jan when it hit 192.12 for a minimum profit of 656 pips. Not bad for 3 weeks work!

Now let's also assume that you were trading a contract with an initial margin requirement of 200 and that every time the position moved 100 pips in your favour you used the open profit from the position to increase the position by 50%. So for instance, if you opened a position at 10/pip (using 2,000 margin) you would add 5/pip when it hit 197.68 and then a further 7.50/pip at 196.68 and so on. By the time you were stopped, your tally would read like this:

656 pips at 10
556 pips at 5
456 pips at 7
356 pips at 11
256 pips at 16
156 pips at 24
56 pips at 36

which would make a grand total of 26,304. In actual fact there would be some losses to include as well, as you would have added to the position at 191.68 and below and these would have resulted in a loss on those trades. I did assume at the outset, however, that you'd entered the market at the worst possible time and a little bit of poetic license is obviously needed. Even so, it should have been easy to net over 20k from a 2k trade in around 3 weeks. That makes it a quick 10-bagger and if you then repeated the process on the ensuing upleg it would be easypeasy to make astronomical sums in a few short weeks.

intresting hils...
i do a bit of stg kiwi..but iwill take a look @stg/yen

Very nice Hilary - will do some homework as this looks like a nice way to trade and not too volatile. Edit - hope you're making these astronomical sums!!!

Hilary, Just me being slow I suspect, but given that FX is 24 hrs, where do you take your figures from?

5pm New York time, Seymour, is universally accepted as the standard.

Btw, I highlighted GBP/JPY in that example because it's had some recent moves which illustrated the technique well and because at some stage soon it should turn and embark upon a downleg.

The technique works on other pairs as well. Your post a couple of weeks back providing a link to a trader who offered courses prompted me to make the post. I watched his spiel and at the end of it he highlighted a 2600 pip move in Cable which ended last March with perfect ma crosses at the bottom and top of the move.

Edit: You don't need to restrict the technique to FX either. If you take a trending stock with a 10% margin requirement, enter towards the bottom of the channel and add 50% every time the position clears 5% profit. You do need to manage your money well though to avoid the margin calls if/when positions move against you.

Thanks Hilary. It certainly looks as if GPB/JPY will turn soon. Will watch hawklike!!