Sharesmagazine
 Home   Log In   Register   Our Services   My Account   Contact   Help 
 Stockwatch   Level 2   Portfolio   Charts   Share Price   Awards   Market Scan   Videos   Broker Notes   Director Deals   Traders' Room 
 Funds   Trades   Terminal   Alerts   Heatmaps   News   Indices   Forward Diary   Forex Prices   Shares Magazine   Investors' Room 
 CFDs   Shares   SIPPs   ISAs   Forex   ETFs   Comparison Tables   Spread Betting 
You are NOT currently logged in
 
Register now or login to post to this thread.

Dowgate Capital - Capitalising on the booming AIM market (DGT)     

overgrowth - 09 Feb 2005 20:52

Dowgate Capital (DGT) are sitting in the middle of a goldmine!

This company through their sole trading arm City Financial Associates are looking to take full advantage of the "booming" AIM market this year. Dowgate provide NOMAD (NOMinated ADvisor) services to AIM companies and also have full Corporate Broker status which means that they can fund placements on behalf of the companies they represent.

On first sight, the fact that Dowgate exist in the often veiled financial services sector makes you think twice about investing in company such as this because it would be impossible to understand what they were doing - however, think again!

DGT bring new companies to the AIM (Alternative Investment Market). For each new company "floated" on AIM, they take arrangement fees when acting as NOMAD. After the company is launched then for a nice steady earner DGT get another healthy chunk of cash every year for looking after them (note that all AIM companies must have a nominated adviser - thereby securing a ready source of recurring income).

Because DGT also act as a Corporate broker they can get a very healthy percentage for arranging placement of shares with insititutions before a new company floats. In addition, because placements come outside the sphere of yearly NOMAD work, they can also gain healthy percentages of placements which companies may need to make throughout the year when they need a quick injection of cash to speed growth.

Current NOMADships: 28 companies represented (gives recurring income of approx 480,000 per year)

Current on-going Brokerage agreements: 19 companies (income depends on placements)

For flotations, depending on the size of a company, fees charged will be anything from 50,000 to 100,000+ For placements (the real earner), DGT get anything from 3% to around 12% of the TOTAL AMOUNT RAISED - For example a new company raising 3M though a placement will earn DGT anything from 90,000 to 360,000 ! These figures are indicative as actual deals all differ due to circumstances and DGT sometimes take payment in shares - they still have a tasty chunk of Setstone shares and when this Russian exploration company comes back to AIM, predictions are that the share price will rocket. Note that the amount that this little company can earn in fees is huge and every new deal that comes through we know will contribute another healthy chunk into the bottom line. The good news with every new floatation means that it's another chunk of recurring revenue which could go on for years, with DGT having to do very little. New clients gained in 2005 are:

Mediazest (NOMAD & broker) Elite Strategies (NOMAD) Process Handling (NOMAD) Poland Investment Fund (NOMAD) Nanotech Energy (NOMAD & broker) Archimedia Ventures (NOMAD & broker) Red Leopard Holdings (NOMAD) Alba Mineral Resources (NOMAD & broker) Intandem Films (NOMAD & broker) Motive Television (NOMAD) IncaGold (NOMAD) Sportswinbet (NOMAD & Broker) Infoscreen Networks (NOMAD & Broker) Mark Kingsley (NOMAD & Broker) Croatia Ventures (NOMAD & Broker) Pantheon Leisure (NOMAD) Firenze Ventures (Ofex Advisor) FlightStore Group (NOMAD & Broker) Euro Capital Projects (NOMAD) Pearl Street Holdings (NOMAD) Worldwide Natural Resources (Ofex Advisor) Dovedale Ventures (Ofex Advisor) Other 2005 work completed:Neptune-Calculus VCT offer for subs of up to 12 million Advisory work for TGM on London Bus disposal for 20.4M Advisory work for Creightons on property disposal Advisory work for Hampton Trust on company restructuring Advisory work for Interbulk Investments on acquisition of Inbulk Advisory work for Fundamental-e Investments on two disposals Advisory work for Designer Vision re: Design Rights against Centurion Electronics

Click Here for fundamentals and profit projections.
Chart.aspx?Provider=Intra&Code=DGT&Size=Chart.aspx?Provider=EODIntra&Code=DGT&Si

taylormade - 19 Apr 2005 09:14 - 364 of 2787

Well it can only get better from here on, actually not as bad as i was thinking.

EWRobson - 19 Apr 2005 09:17 - 365 of 2787

As per expectations but not hopes. Positive news re current trading and the 7 completed flotations match our expectations and the work in progress matches theirs. Patience required, not a commodity with which I am well endowed!

Eric

stevieweebie - 19 Apr 2005 10:22 - 366 of 2787

Still holding
New team is doing well and bad news out of way.
As Eric said patience required.
Good luck all
Stevie

stockdog - 19 Apr 2005 10:28 - 367 of 2787

Applying the information in the report to my model, I have made the following changes:-

1) retainer income from existing clients reduced from 400k to 315k
2) retianer income for 2005 to date I have from available info 11 "new", which I am taking to correspond to 4 held over from last year and 7 new as per report. If this is 4 too many, reduce income by est. 80k, but I am leaving as is for now.
3) 11 transactions so far this year is what I have as per report - no change
4) reducing anticpated further new clients from 6 NOMAD only/7 NOMAD + Broker to 5 / 6 respectively
5) allowing the above to represent both retainer income and a transaction, plus 2 more transactions for existing clients, makes 13 more trnasactions
6) reducing operating costs from 1.3m to 1.2m (I assume the report means reducing from ongoing, not from total 1.714m cost last year)

This gives me exactly the same operating profit as my previous analysis of 468,500.

I always take comfort from arriving at the same location from two different bearings, in this case based upon last years actuals, prospective comments and published client/transactions.

So I see that we are totally on target for a prospective PE of 4.5 at today's lower mid-price of 0.38p.

More conservatively than last time suggesting a more realistic PE to be 15 (last time 18), this gives a projected mid-price of 15/4.5 X 0.38 = 1.27. Allowing a 25% spread (currently 26% which I expect to reduce as SP rises) this gives a bid price of 1.11p.

I still can't get my view to be less than 1p bid by Xmas, even on more conservative figures this time round and allowing fair safety margin. Assuming all three trades so far today are sells totalling 3,003 in value, it seems the rest of the market agrees there is no perceived downside and plenty of upside to look forward to.

Any views welcome, please.

SD

moneyplus - 19 Apr 2005 11:14 - 368 of 2787

Those two founder members cost the company dear! It's going to take a while to recover but T R gives a good encouraging report and I'm happy to hold .

Ted1 - 19 Apr 2005 11:33 - 369 of 2787

This BB is an absolute pleasure to read with some very talented bods. No surprises in the end of year accounts and I to am happy to hold.

butane - 19 Apr 2005 11:36 - 370 of 2787

CFA Capital cuts FY losses, says progress so far in 2005 satisfactory
AFX


LONDON (AFX) - Broker CFA Capital Group PLC narrowed its pretax loss on ordinary activities to 366 mln stg last year, from 563 a year earlier, on turnover of 1.325 mln stg compared with 1.508 mln.

Chief Executive Tony Rawlinson said progress so far in 2005 has been satisfactory, and that the company's current prospective deal list indicates it should be able to meet its targets over the next few months.

newsdesk@afxnews.com

hjp/

ptholden - 19 Apr 2005 12:25 - 371 of 2787

A most sensible analysis SD and one with which I fully agree. The Results are pretty much in line with my own expectations and judging by the reaction in terms of trades today, (thus far) also the City and private investors. I wouldn't be too surprised to see the SP drift a liitle in the short term, but if CFA can continue to accumulate customers in line with the last year, the future does indeed look quite rosy. The departure of JB and TS certainly would have had quite an impact on the bottom line and the next year without these exceptional costs will surely be improved in terms of profitability. I am quite looking forward to the next Interims which will give a much clearer picture of the future of CFA. I, for one, am happy to hold and will probably continue to accumulate over the coming months.

Regards

PTH

corehard - 19 Apr 2005 12:33 - 372 of 2787

Considering what has taken place over the past six months, outlook is still strong. Founder members leaving would normally have a devastating effect on investor confidence.
TR knows what he's up against here... and to his credit, has not led anyone to believe otherwise, (If there is nothing to say... say nothing).
This was always going to be a long-hauler, and looking at latest posts it seems all are prepared for that.
SD. Once again, thanks for the analysis, helps us lesser mortals see the light.

overgrowth - 19 Apr 2005 13:06 - 373 of 2787

Have just seen the results guys and my thanks go to SD also for the excellent detailed analysis.

No surprises for me either - I was looking at a 300-400K loss so well within my predicted limits. We can now forget those one-off costs due to pay offs and look forward to a mean lean company machine going forwards.

It was particulary heartening to see that although 2004 transactions were much lower than expected that the turnover from Corporate fees and Commissions in 2004 (1,325) was still up on the previous year (1,199).

Also good to see that all the spare cash has not been dwindled away due to pay-offs - 500,000 at year end is very healthy.

TR and team have the right idea by committing to work hard and increase recurring income before looking at expanding the team. The more recurring work they get the better and ultimately I can see recurring income covering operating expenses totally which would enable the company to post some very tasty profits indeed.

Good to see that there was no adverse reaction from the market as predicted and now all the bad news is out of the way and we have a positive forward statement it looks as though the price today is at the bottom of the cycle - time to buy again methinks.

butane - 19 Apr 2005 13:17 - 374 of 2787

Currently .37p to buy.

sidtrix - 19 Apr 2005 13:21 - 375 of 2787

Was offered .35p to buy (HoodlessBrennan)

stockdog - 19 Apr 2005 13:48 - 376 of 2787

I'm certainly looking to buy more over the next few days (just wait a beat for uncertainty in the general market to resolve itself, I think)

SD

Adacol - 19 Apr 2005 14:04 - 377 of 2787

Have just bought 566,000 at 0.35p....showing as a sell!

stockdog - 19 Apr 2005 14:07 - 378 of 2787

Interesting - the spread has closed from 0.10p to 0.07p - bid still at 0.33p, but offer now only 0.40p down from 0.43p - MMs keen to get some buys going? Any interpretations from the experts, please?

SD

overgrowth - 19 Apr 2005 14:19 - 379 of 2787

SD - The MMs will have glanced at previous news (given that results were out) and then spotted that virtually all the 2004 costs were down to exceptional costs and the comment "Despite the inevitable disruption and expense caused by these departures....", they as impartial outsiders would conclude:

1) Results are pretty good considering the previous warning - particularly as most of it was in payoffs.

2) The current board saw the guys leaving as not adding much value to the company as a whole and last year positively disrupting things - best to get shut.

3) We'll probably get plenty of sellers thinking this is bad news and then lots of buyers when they realise it's actually good news.

Unfortunately, 3) hasn't worked for them because hardly anyone's sold - however they must now acknowledge that as the results sink in more and more buyers will be interested particularly if the price and spread are right.

All my amateur psycholgy ramblings of course. Probably what really happened is "Oh I see CFP's results are out"...."Hmmm not much trading"..."Let's tinker with the limits and see what we can drag out".

stockdog - 19 Apr 2005 14:25 - 380 of 2787

og - do me a favour and don't keep saying the results are quite good actually - I need a couple of days to be in funds to top up, knowadimean. Very happy with offer at 0.4p till then.

SD

slmchow - 19 Apr 2005 14:27 - 381 of 2787

copy from other bb

Growth Dabbler - 19 Apr'05 - 13:40 - 7174 of 7191

Results totally as expected to me guys and as carchase says - now all the bad news is out of the way - the only way for the sp to go from here is up.

schow - In the results it says that Net assets at 30th June were 914,000 and at 31st December they were 607,000 largely as a result of exceptional costs. I take that to mean that the payoffs cost the company in the region of 300K.

As at the end of December I was looking at possible trading loss due to non-materialising deals in Q4 2004 of around 125K.

Given that the posted loss is 375K, then if we take out the cash spent on non-recurring costs (307K), the trading loss was only 68K - pretty good going for a bad year!

This indicates that given the work completed so far in 2005 and the current prospective deal list (which TR mentions) that CFP should be easily posting a decent profit for 2005.

Looks like the price has dipped nicely today providing an ideal opportunity for for any toppers-up to take advantage - I have a feeling that when the results fully sink in, that buyers will be paying a lot more in the near future.

carchase - the AGM date is mentioned in the results - 25th May.

stockdog - 19 Apr 2005 14:30 - 382 of 2787

I think I see what it is now overgrowth - the trades have all been on the sell side, the MMs would like a balanced book in all penny stocks each night I owuld think at current state of the market. So they've had to reduce the offer to get back in balance by end of the day, whilst holding the bid steady so as not to frighten any more sellers out.
Does this work as a theory?

SD

EWRobson - 19 Apr 2005 14:33 - 383 of 2787

stockdog

Thanks for the analysis which looks very sound. I wonder whether the cost porfile is overstated: 'in addition to the costs of running the holding company' (presumably, Shaw and Barclay) appears to state that these costs have been eliminated; non-recurring one off costs includes compensation for loss of office and legal fees in relation to former directors and bad debt provisions; 'in the current year, following a detailed review, overhead costs have been considerably reduced whilst maintaining and streamlining the oeprational capability of the business'. So we should at least be back to the figure of 600 per half year of the last interims which , of course, included Barclay and Shaw, and could be nearer 1 million.

Rawlinson is obviously keen not to offer any hostages to fortune after the experience of late last year. However, I liked a couple of comments: first, the focus on achieving profitability before committing to growth; second, 'sufficient transactions are likely to be completed out of our work in progress pool to acheive our fee targets over the nest few months'. Linking these, the targets are likely to take the company into profitability, perhaps in the third quarter, and these can achieved with work currently in progress.

I hope we get a trading review in July; there was one in December but not July last year. Finally, sd is a clever dog and should have treats; can moneyplus perhaps oblige!

Eric
Register now or login to post to this thread.