Forex rebates on every trade - win or lose!

NBG. Looks like there's no shortage of sellers happy to spray into the slightest rise.

you there doll ?
where's the top of this rise ?

Hil/doll(!), I'd like to know where the top is as well. I've got a bunch of USD earnings to repatriate soon.

I'm here Beebs.

Not sure how far it's going at the moment, but it looks to have a bit more mileage yet. 1.8428 was the high from Tuesday. It's not far off, so let's see what happens when it gets there..

tks darling - moving stop as we go

lots of congestion as you say at 184.20-30ish,
i got stopped out at 183.96 for + a few
thinking about a short if we go back to 184.15ish

mm; my thinking, as you can see is that the top(ish) is in for today,
but wtfdik. good luck.

Beebs,

I'm staying long for a bit longer. No surprises on the first round of resistance selling, but I'll be a bit surprised if it doesn't at least have another crack at it. I'm happy to admit that I might be wrong.

what you ? never......
good luck, and i'll let you know on here if i i go short,
but much lower now, and i may get into bed with you again....

were is the insurance sector going ?

B,

I was going to e-mail you in the week to say that it looks like it's time to start longing the lifers again. Looks like you'd realised that one for yourself.

Or did you mean UB83?

just got back in from picking up the car,
and wonder if its a buying opportunity
brewing up - looks a bit weak, and the 10.00
theory is blown away so far today,

which position do you favour doll ?

Swinging from the chandeliers, Beebs.

:o)

Was long from late last night, stopped an hour or so ago for a few. Staying out now till after G7 ..... range is too tight at the moment.

you naughty girl you......
i'd have thought you'd have better things to do
'late last night' than playing with the cable ;~)

i'm also watching from the sidelines, but may try a small long if we dip to 183.20ish again.

sadly never made 183.20, but this 160 point rise
on moderate empl. figs looks overdone,
typical of our cousins over the pond.

had my finger on the sell button at 185.00,
but forgot to hit it !

looks like i may get another chance soon,
might have run out of bottle by then

Hil, was sat in the pub having lunch watching cable on my phone (you should get one, y'know) when it rocketed as did EUR/USD. Give me the benefit of your wisdom and tell me why.

Derek,

I was on the commode at the time.

:o)

It was the US employment data at 1:30 which did it. This article from earlier today should hopefully explain why.

Been away for a week and not watched this thread for at least 10 days.

Zarif. My Saxobank trading demo site has come to an end, so can't get their advised positions on the various forexes (as opposed to the general comment). Do you know whether these are accessible from their normal site, or will I have to open a permanent trading site with them?

Does anyone think that we may be seeing the start of another medium-term uptrend on cable? A trend line drawn through the base of the trend from November to late December would now seem to be marking the resistance point and a good trend base seems to be forming.

http://www.economist.com/opinion/displayStory.cfm?story_id=2404984

Let the dollar drop

Feb 5th 2004
From The Economist print edition


Some think the dollar has fallen too far. On the contrary, it has not fallen by enough




THE dollar is the world's dominant currency. Should the world therefore be worried by its recent plunge against other currencies? Plenty of people seem to think so. When central bank governors and finance ministers of the G7 economies meet this weekend in Boca Raton, Florida, the fate of the dollar will be high on their agenda. Since 2001 the dollar has fallen by 33% against the euro and by 15% against the Japanese yen. Currency traders around the globe will scrutinise every word from Boca Raton, looking for a signal that governments might act together to stem the dollar's decline. Many businessmen will be holding their breath as well.

This is understandable. Any shift in currencies produces winners and losers. And yet the real problem facing the world economy is not a suddenly weak dollar, but a dollar which remains, even after its recent decline, too strong. The drop in the greenback was inevitable and should benefit both America and other countries, because it will help to reduce America's vast current-account deficit, which is arguably one of the biggest threats to the global recovery. For the same reason the dollar should, and almost certainly will, fall further. But some countries are not prepared to allow the dollar to fall by enough to complete the necessary adjustment to America's finances.

America's current-account deficit stands at 5% of GDP, and most economists reckon that this percentage needs to be reduced by at least half. That would stabilise the ratio of America's foreign liabilities to GDP, which has surged in recent years. So far the dollar has fallen by 15% in trade-weighted terms against a broad basket of currencies. Nevertheless, after adjusting for inflation, its value is still close to its 30-year average. It may need to fall by another 20% over the next few years if the current-account deficit is to be halved (see article).

American policymakers seem happy to let the dollar slide. Europeans, however, complain that the burden of adjustment has fallen disproportionately on their currency, the euro. As the euro has soared against the dollar, central banks in Japan, China and other Asian countries have bought dollars to hold down the value of their own currencies. By doing so, they financed over half of America's current-account deficit in 2003. Without that money the dollar would have fallen further.



Missing signals
In the short term, Asia might thus be seen as America's saviour. But in the longer term Asian governments are delaying a necessary adjustment by allowing America's deficit to loom large for longer. This is likely to lead to an even bigger and more dangerous build-up of American foreign debt.

The behaviour of Asia's central banks has also blunted the necessary market signals to which even America must, eventually, pay heed. The current-account deficit is a direct, arithmetical reflection of insufficient domestic saving. In particular, America needs to prune its government budget deficit. However, it feels even less reason than usual to do so. Normally, when a government's budget deficit swells so fast (to 4.6% of GDP this year, from a surplus of 2.4% of GDP in 2000) and its currency is falling, investors would demand higher bond yields to compensate them for the increased risk. That penalty gives governments both a warning and an incentive to borrow less. But Asian governments are devouring American Treasury bonds with little regard for the usual risk-return characteristics. As a result, bond yields are being held artificially low, subsidising America's borrowing spree.

This has allowed the Bush administration to point misleadingly to low bond yields as evidence that its budget deficit is not harming the economy, and to think that cutting the deficit is less urgent. President George Bush's plan, set out this week in his budget, to halve the deficit over five years is based on unrealistic assumptions and fantasy accounting (see article). A fiscal stimulus was justified when the American economy was on the brink of a deep recession in 2001, but now that the economy is booming again, borrowing needs to be cut.



Asia's game
In essence, Asian governments are buying American Treasury bonds in order to ensure that Americans can afford to keep spending money on Asian goods. This cannot go on forever. Despite their mercantilist instincts, sooner or later Asia's central banks will have to face the fact that they are holding far too many risky, low-yielding dollars. If they stop buying, it could trigger a sharp fall in the dollar and a jump in bond yields. Delaying the natural adjustment in the dollar and bond yields is likely to mean that, when the inevitable correction comes, it will be much more painful.

If financial markets do turn nasty, then everybody will carry some of the blame. Japan and China will be guilty of trying to block market forces and hence an earlier adjustment in America's trade deficit. With Japan's economy now growing faster than the euro area and its firms' profits surging, Japan can probably afford a stronger yen. Its continuing worry about deflation can be better addressed by printing more money. And China needs to allow its currency to move upwards, not just to help the rest of the world, but also to rebalance its own overheating economy. Without such a rebalancing, inflation or a property boom and bust could destroy growth. The Chinese might find it easier to accept such advice if they are given a seat at the G7 table, where they clearly belong.

The euro area is also far from blameless. Policymakers wring their hands about the brutal rise in the euro, yet the euro is still close to fair value against a basket of currencies. If Europeans are worried that a stronger euro will hurt their economies, then the solution is simple: the European Central Bank should cut interest rates to boost demand.

However, America must bear much of the blame for its failure to do anything to curb household and government borrowing and so boost saving. Its easy monetary and fiscal policies are now beginning to look reckless. The dollar's slide has rightly shifted some of the burden of economic adjustment on to other economies. Sooner or later, though, America will have to face up to its own responsibilities, too.

Can anyone recommend a good source of historical forex data (free or otherwise). For back-testing purposes I'd like 30min data for a number of years for GBP/USD and other majors.

Thanks

TPO