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FTSE + FTSE 250 - consider trading (FTSE)     

cynic - 20 Oct 2007 12:12

rather than pick out individual stocks to trade, it can often be worthwhile to trade the indices themselves, especially in times of high volatility.

for those so inclined, i attach below charts for FTSE and FTSE 250, though one might equally be tempted to trade Dow or S&P, which is significantly broader in its coverage, or even NASDAQ

for ease of reading, i have attached 1 year and 3 month charts in each instance

halifax - 05 Dec 2007 09:49 - 366 of 21973

BOE should try to get ahead of the game like the FED. Big problems looming with the housing market slow down. Inflationary pressures will ease as the economy slows. Interest cut of .25pct would not make any difference to Christmas shoppers intentions.

HARRYCAT - 05 Dec 2007 09:55 - 367 of 21973

My bet would be no change to BoE rate.
DOW futures currently +64 so trading today looks encouraging, but may see a sell off before tomorrow's announcement, imo.

halifax - 05 Dec 2007 10:13 - 368 of 21973

Global Insight says BOE rate cut likely following housing figures and PMI decline.

spitfire43 - 05 Dec 2007 10:32 - 369 of 21973

I'm in long at 6388 a little rash but I will give it a go.

spitfire43 - 05 Dec 2007 10:50 - 370 of 21973

Agree the BOE should cut rates ahead of the game, but I still can't see them doing the right thing.

spitfire43 - 05 Dec 2007 11:07 - 371 of 21973

stopped out at 6393, for 5 point's at least it's a profit. Moved stop/loss up to close. Try again later.

cynic - 05 Dec 2007 14:56 - 372 of 21973

am currently long Dow at 13320 and more at 13368 .... shall watch carefully

sold 50% at 13425

spitfire43 - 05 Dec 2007 17:52 - 373 of 21973

Good call Cynic

Missed out today on very large rally, thought the FTSE would go up but not by that much. I was a bit tentative today, still learning and there is always tomorrow.

Any thought's about trading tomorrow.

cynic - 05 Dec 2007 18:53 - 374 of 21973

just been stoopde out of the other 50% at 13415 .... do i care? ..... not a bit .... may have a further little dabble around 20:00

tomorrow? ..... no idea at all; i don't even know if Dow will finish above 13400 tonight

HARRYCAT - 05 Dec 2007 20:21 - 375 of 21973

The following tomorrow:

TRADING ANNOUNCEMENTS
Royal Bank of Scotland Group

UK ECONOMIC ANNOUNCEMENTS
BoE Interest Rate Decision (12:00)
Industrial Production (09:30)
Manufacturing Production (09:30)

FTSE direction will be dependent on these, imo.

cynic - 06 Dec 2007 08:53 - 376 of 21973

did in fact "have a little dabble" later on; sold some just after official Dow close and have just sold balance all at some profit ..... i really really do not trust these markets and as a precaution have also sold some IEC and PMO to bring those back into line rather than being heavily o'weight ..... when US opens may also sell my holding in Google which has produced an acceptable profit in the few days i have held.

i still think Google is an ace investment, but i foresee Dow (and Nasdaq in its wake)taking a battering following Fed announcement on 11th(?) even if rates are cut 0.5% .... the market has already discounted this

spitfire43 - 06 Dec 2007 09:00 - 377 of 21973

In long at 6314 for hopefully a modest gain.........

cynic - 06 Dec 2007 09:14 - 378 of 21973

i assume you mean 6514 ...... and what do you think will happen if BoE does NOT cut rates? ..... be careful

Toya - 06 Dec 2007 09:52 - 379 of 21973

Re Interest Rate cut vs no cut:

Excellent article in The Times, by Anatole Kaletsky (who's always worth a read!)

"Midday today is the moment of truth when the MPC will announce whether it has understood these dangers or whether it plans to test the British economy to destruction in pursuit of an academic experiment in laissez-faire central banking."

Full article:
The Bank better get this right

hilary - 06 Dec 2007 10:05 - 380 of 21973

That article in The Times is all very well, but I think that the BoE are torn between the devil and the deep blue sea.

This is the BoE mandate from their website:

The Bank's Strategy

The Bank's strategic priorities endorsed by Court for 2007/08 are:

To maintain its track record of achieving the inflation target, the Bank should improve the quality and efficiency of the process supporting the Monetary Policy Committee, advance its understanding of the changing nature of the inflation process and contribute to the development of inflation targeting.

Money market operations should ensure stable overnight sterling interest rates and support improved banking system liquidity management, including by providing longer-term finance through, and adopting electronic bidding for, open market operations.

Banking operations should be focused on ensuring monetary and financial stability, thus eliminating activities that do not contribute to those objectives, while also being efficient and resilient, in large part to be achieved by continuing to deliver the objectives of the Customer Banking Transition.

The Bank should ensure that its banknotes are designed and produced in order to maintain a high level of security against counterfeiting, and that the distribution of notes, including the new 20, ensures an efficient circulation that meets the Bank's objectives for quality.

The Bank should draw on its upgraded analytical and market intelligence capabilities to deepen its understanding of the major risks to the UK financial system and work effectively with others to lower them.

The Bank should be fully prepared in its management of financial crises and its business continuity planning, within the Standing Committee framework, and should work with others to strengthen international crisis management preparations.
The Bank should promote safe and efficient payment and settlement systems and be at the forefront of best practice in operational and policy areas.

To deliver these strategic priorities, the Bank will aim for the highest business standards and will continually improve the quality and training of its people and the integrity, controls and efficiency of its systems, processes and financial reporting.


Number 1 item on the list is inflation which they are struggling to control with oil at $100. A cut in interest rates today will simply fuel inflation further and Mervy King will end up having to write a Dear Darling letter in the new year.

For there to be a cut in rates one of two things has got to happen.

Either oil has got to back away substantially from $100. Is that realistic?

Alternatively the Government would have to set a higher, more realistic, inflation target. If they did that it would be construed as an admission that they were wrong in the first place.

If the MPC do succumb to the clamour of calls for a cut, then it can only be a matter of time before they're forced to hike them up again. Imo.

halifax - 06 Dec 2007 10:10 - 381 of 21973

Dont know what all the fuss is about the official rate of inflation bears no resemblance to reality. Statistics...... lies etc.

spitfire43 - 06 Dec 2007 10:11 - 382 of 21973

Closed at 6522 for 8 points, FTSE jumping around all over the place. Will now sit on sidelines and await the BOE announcement.

Just pleased I maneged to exit before midday.

cynic - 06 Dec 2007 10:28 - 383 of 21973

a sensible move! ...... from a personal point of view, i would like to see European Central Bank cut rates, as the strong Euro (vs ) does nothing positive for our biz!

cynic - 06 Dec 2007 11:07 - 384 of 21973

the market seems to have convinced itself that a rate cut is coming, but though that means i have "missed" some extra profit, i am happy that my decision to close out my index positions and also take other money off the table was both correct and prudent.

come 12.30 or 13.00, it will be more apparent how the markets truly interpret BoE's decision, whatever it happens to be

cynic - 06 Dec 2007 11:22 - 385 of 21973

if there is a cut i may just (perhaps very foolishly!) be enticed into buying back into RTN or DOM, on the basis that there will be a feel-good factor and an encouragement for peeps to start spending on luxuries etc (knee-jerk relief!)
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