Jams ahead for carmakers
Financial Times, 27 June 2005 - The automotive industry is possibly the most global industry there is, with almost 60m cars and light trucks sold in 2003. In the UK alone, it contributes Pounds 8.4bn added value to the economy, according to the Department for Trade and Industry.
But the big European and North American producers face massive structural problems, pensions deficits, overcapacity, mature markets and falling prices. With a few exceptions, notably Toyota and Honda, carmaking is just not profitable, says Dr Paul Nieuwenhuis of the Centre for Automotive Research. Despite the huge overall volumes, production of many individual models is well below 100,000 per year, "so they just don't make any money," he says. Carmakers will find some relief in the emerging demand from markets such as China, India and Indonesia, but ultimately "they have to start making different types of car", says Dr Nieuwenhuis.
Carmakers must also face up to the challenges of rising oil prices and their products' contribution to air pollution and global warming. Regulatory threats include the EU's end of life vehicles directive, Brussels' emissions trading scheme and congestion charging schemes such as that introduced in London.
A report by Merrill Lynch and the World Resources Institute released earlier this month says: "The global need to address energy security concerns and the impact of climate change on the earth's environment is intensifying pressure on the auto industry to create vehicles with higher fuel economy and lower emissions."
The industry has a number of options, according to the report. These are:
* Create new vehicle types (hybrids such as the Prius)
* Modify traditional vehicles with alternative power sources (hybrid, diesel, hydrogen internal combustion engine etc.)
* Develop new technologies to enhance existing engines and transmissions
* Improve exhaust treatment
* Design lighter vehicle structures
* Shift production toward smaller vehicles.
These trends are going to work in favour of some manufacturers more than others - Ford and GM's focus on SUVs has put them at a disadvantage, while Honda and Toyota's focus on hybrids has left them well-placed.
In the long term, hydrogen fuel cells are seen as the answer to the industry's pollution problems, as they only emit water. However, there are still problems with how to produce the hydrogen and the lack of a hydrogen delivery infrastructure.
As a result, fuel cell-powered cars are unlikely to be on the road until 2020, and will not be widespread until the 2050s, according to Steven Blackman, head of Ernst & Young's automotive unit.
In the meantime, flavour of the month are hybrid cars, which have both electric batteries and a petrol engine, making the car more fuel-efficient and reducing emissions. While Toyota's Prius leads the way, several other hybrid cars are on or coming to market, and Merrill Lynch suggests Hyundai is also well-placed to capitalise on demand for hybrids.
But in the short term, refining existing technologies is a more fruitful way of cutting emissions. These "incremental" technologies are relatively unsung, says Duncan Austin, of Generation Investment Management, but they generate a relatively quick payback.
Companies well-placed in this sector include Borg Warner, a US parts company that derives 70 per cent of its revenues from fuel efficiency products, and Magna International, which has a technology for creating stronger, lighter vehicle bodies.
Ibiden, of Japan, and France's Faureccia make filters that remove the particulates from diesel, and they are also predicted to benefit from the current investment climate, while Aisin Seiki, a Japanese parts maker, is well placed in incremental technologies such as variable valve timing.
Another promising area is in alternative fuels. Biofuels can be added to petrol or diesel engines as a 5 per cent blend with little or no alteration needed in engines or petrol pumps. There is little technical difficulty in running vehicles entirely on biofuels - indeed in Sweden, two-thirds of orders for the new Saab 95 are for the version that runs on 85 per cent bioethanol derived from sugar cane, according to Charles Burt of Olive SRM, a strategic risk consultancy.
As with fuel cells, there is no infrastructure in place. However, a scheme in the north east of the UK, One Green Route, is developing a network of branded forecourts to sell biodiesel to private motorists. There is also great potential for vehicles that can be fuelled at depots, such as council vehicles, buses and commercial vehicles in specialised applications such as airports.
Companies hoping to benefit from moves towards alternative fuels include Biofuels Corp, which floated last year and raised an additional Pounds 32.7m earlier this year. It plans a biodiesel processing plant up and running by September. D1, another biodiesel group that listed on the Alternative Investment Market last October, estimates that by 2010, EU demand for the fuel will be 10.5bn litres. Meanwhile, British Sugar, facing EU reforms that will slash sugar prices, is planning the first bioethanol plant in the UK.
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