nice starting point..

Half Yearly Report

First half housing completions at highest level in five years

· Significant increase in output with the Group(1) responding quickly to uplift in consumer demand

· Strong, broad based recovery with higher sales rates across all areas of the country

· Continued investment in high return new development opportunities across the UK with 11,394 plots approved in the half year

· Disciplined approach has delivered significant progress on ROCE(2) at 14.2% for the 12 months to 31 December 2013

· Recruitment target for apprentices, graduates and trainees increased to 1,100 over three years

Outlook

· Very strong start to the second half with 0.76 (2013: 0.64) net private reservations per active site per week(6) over the last eight weeks

· Net private reservations up 30.2% at 0.69 (2013: 0.53) per active site per week for the financial year to date

· Total forward sales as at 23 February 2014 up by 56.2% to £1,748.1m (24 February 2013: £1,119.1m)

· Expect to deliver full year profit towards the top end of the range of current analyst estimates(7)

· Interim dividend payment of 3.2 pence per share reflecting the move to three times dividend cover, two years ahead of target. For the three years to FY16 total dividend payments expected of around £365m based on current analyst estimates(8)

more...

Feb 28:

Citigroup reiterates: Buy - TP up frpm 390p to 460p

Liberum Capital reiterates Buy - TP up from 430p to 468p

BDEV price should rise further or even pronto, after its entry
into the FTSE 100 on 24 March, as many fund managers
obliged to buy. Marking time now, it seems!

March 12: Goldman Sachs: Neutral - TP down from 527p to 502p. DownGrade

April 24: Deutsche reiterates: Buy - TP held at 453p.

Deutsche seems to be a big fan:


24 Apr Deutsche Bank 453.00 Buy
11 Apr Deutsche Bank 453.00 Buy
9 Apr Deutsche Bank 453.00 Buy
7 Apr Deutsche Bank 453.00 Buy
4 Apr Deutsche Bank 453.00 Buy
2 Apr Deutsche Bank 453.00 Buy
1 Apr Deutsche Bank 453.00 Buy
27 Mar Deutsche Bank 453.00 Buy
20 Mar Deutsche Bank 453.00 Buy
18 Mar Deutsche Bank 453.00 Buy

Deutsche are the same about TW. another buy rating today but won't go up ..

Interim Management Statement

Highlights

· Strong sales performance continues with 0.77 (2013: 0.68) net private reservations per active site per week for the period

· Net private reservations up 24.6% at 0.71 (2013: 0.57) per active site per week for the financial year to date

· Total forward sales as at 4 May 2014 up by 46.5% to £1,922.9m (5 May 2013: £1,312.3m), providing a strong position going into FY15

· Continuing to secure excellent land opportunities across all regions which meet or exceed our stringent minimum hurdle rates, and expect to approve c. 21,000 plots in FY14 (FY13: 18,536 plots)

· Confident we will deliver our FY16 ROCE(1) target of 18% significantly ahead of schedule

23, 28, 29 May:

Deutsche reiterates: BUY - TP as ever 453p.

Midknight - they are consistent!

Deutsche Bank Buy 361.55 453.00 453.00 Reiterates
28 May 14 Barratt... Deutsche Bank Buy 361.55 453.00 453.00 Reiterates
23 May 14 Barratt... Deutsche Bank Buy 361.55 453.00 453.00 Reiterates
16 May 14 Barratt... Deutsche Bank Buy 361.55 453.00 453.00 Reiterates
12 May 14 Barratt... Deutsche Bank Buy 361.55 453.00 453.00 Reiterates
09 May 14 Barratt... Deutsche Bank Buy 361.55 453.00 453.00 Reiterates
08 May 14 Barratt... Deutsche Bank Buy 361.55 453.00 453.00 Reiterates
30 Apr 14 Barratt... Deutsche Bank Buy 361.55 453.00 453.00 Reiterates
25 Apr 14 Barratt... Deutsche Bank Buy 361.55 453.00 453.00 Reiterates
24 Apr 14 Barratt... Deutsche Bank Buy 361.55 453.00 453.00 Reiterates
11 Apr 14 Barratt... Deutsche Bank Buy 361.55 453.00 453.00 Reiterates
09 Apr 14 Barratt... Deutsche Bank Buy 361.55 453.00 453.00 Reiterates
07 Apr 14 Barratt... Deutsche Bank Buy 361.55 453.00 453.00 Reiterates
04 Apr 14 Barratt... Deutsche Bank Buy 361.55 453.00 453.00 Reiterates
02 Apr 14 Barratt... Deutsche Bank Buy 361.55 453.00 453.00 Reiterates
01 Apr 14 Barratt... Deutsche Bank Buy 361.55 453.00 453.00 Reiterates
27 Mar 14 Barratt... Deutsche Bank Buy 361.55 453.00 453.00 Reiterates
20 Mar 14 Barratt... Deutsche Bank Buy 361.55 453.00 453.00 Retains
18 Mar 14 Barratt... Deutsche Bank Buy 361.55 453.00 453.00 Retains
17 Mar 14 Barratt... Deutsche Bank Buy 361.55 452.00 453.00 Retains

Goldman Sachs note:
"We upgrade our rating on Barratt Developments to Buy from Neutral.
Following a period of share price weakness – the shares are down 18% over the last 3 months – we believe current valuation does not appropriately reflect the earnings growth and improving returns we forecast. Given forward sales were reported up 47% yoy at the IMS on May 8 and the group expects to have secured more than 25% of its FY15 private sales by June 14, we believe the group is geared to the recovering UK housing market. We make no changes to our estimates or 6-month price target of 502p, which currently implies 41% potential upside.

Barratt currently trades on CY14/15 P/E multiples of 11.9x/8.1x and EV/EBITDA multiples of 8.9x/6.5x. We apply an unchanged P/E multiple of 10.2x to our CY15 EPS estimate (representing its 3 year median).

The key risks include: (1) UK housing transactions and pricing being weaker than we expect, (2) sharper and earlier interest rate increases than expected or (3) any adverse changes to regulation or government schemes for the new build sector."

Worth a watch if you missed it last night :-

Hot Property

June 27: Citigroup: Buy - TP: 460p.

If the Banks undertake the BOE remit to restrict multiples according earnings then it will be a struggle to maintain margins at the current rate.

Trading Statement

Highlights

· Significant increase in housing completions with the Group responding to uplift in consumer demand

· Average selling price growth of c. 13% for FY14 to c. £220k (2013: £194.8k) driven by increased delivery of larger homes in attractive locations and house price inflation

· Profit before tax for FY14 expected to be ahead of the top end of analysts' estimates(1) at c. £390m (2013: £192.0m before exceptionals)

· Group expected to exceed 18% ROCE(2) target in FY14 (2013: 11.5%), two years ahead of schedule

· Year end net cash balance of c. £70m (2013: net debt £25.9m)

· Total forward sales up by 44.7% at £1,200.5m (2013: £829.7m)

GALVAN BEARISH ON BDEV..........

Barratt Developments (BDEV) 14/july/2014

In a Q3 trading update on May 8th,
Barratts said that increased buyer
confidence and “the availability of
attractive mortgage finance continue to
support strong consumer demand for
our homes.”
Barratt also noted that the Help to Buy
equity scheme “remains a very
attractive opportunity for our customers
and, in particular, is supporting first
time buyers."
For the reporting period, Barratt said
that 2,150 of its new home reservations
used the scheme, with a total of 14,250
units expected to complete in 2014.
Barratts have secured “excellent land
opportunities across all regions”. This
commitment to buy-and-build ties up
loads of capital, which is fine and good
so long as the housing market
continues to grow at the current rate.
The percentage of new home
reservations using ‘Help to Buy’ vs. total
completions expected for the year
currently stands at 15% and will rise
substantially. Any housing market
correction will severely impact on these
numbers, and prompt a significant
downward readjustment in forward
sales estimates.

More From The Galvan Report........

Many economic commentators believe
we are undergoing a phoney recovery.

Even Nationwide concedes that “real
earnings growth remains sluggish”.

What we have today is strong house
prices without earnings growth.
This is a clear indication that the UK
property market is being propped up by
government policies that ultimately just
leaves people saddled with more debt.
That’s the thing about distorting the
market, history teaches us that it ends
in tears.
Evidence supporting this comes from
many quarters, but in particular the
retail sector, and the major grocers.
Tesco, Morrisons and other retailers are
losing money and market share hand
over fist to discount chains Aldi and
Lidl.
Arguably if we were seeing evidence of
the current recovery in every corner of
the UK, the major grocery retailers
would not have seen such a downturn
in sales as households opt for cheaper
products and lower bills.
Households are about to get squeezed
even more.

Rate rises are coming… and
soon.

I agree with some of that statement there GF ,i think that we have a false housing boom , down here in the south it's just gone stupid ,can't last ...
However i don't agree with the last piece about the supermarkets so much ,i think that Aldi and Lidl have come along and taken market share away , don't forget they have only recently become a force here , Tesco and all are now sharing their customers with two more players ,and fairly good ones at that ..

One of them this week as overtaken waitrose as the 6th largest retailer in the UK.

Actualy Jimmy theirs a lot more to that report I didnt want to post it here as I look upon you all as my buddies and its a bearish article.

Ill just post the link then you can follow it up if you like.

http://www.dianomioffers.co.uk/uploads/product_4461_pdf_link.pdf

Cheers GF i'm not in this but i am in TW .