rather than pick out individual stocks to trade, it can often be worthwhile to trade the indices themselves, especially in times of high volatility.

for those so inclined, i attach below charts for FTSE and FTSE 250, though one might equally be tempted to trade Dow or S&P, which is significantly broader in its coverage, or even NASDAQ

for ease of reading, i have attached 1 year and 3 month charts in each instance

President Bush, addressing economic crisis, urges Congress to act next week on auto aid and protect taxpayers ..... hence the modest rally off the floor by Dow, but every signal coming from everywhere is total panic ..... imo, the bailout was a racing certainty, so for Bush to start chivying Congress to get it sorted pronto, merely fans the flames

cynic are still long oil?

cynic are you still long oil?

The last hour of trade should be the important one. I guess the size of job losses might sway decisions regarding a bailout.....even if it probably only delays the inevitable.

Halifax. Behave. ;-)

Strawbs.

strawbs why? If one gets it wrong one should have the courage to admit it. We forecast oil would fall to $50 months ago and we were ridiculed by guess who? What goes around comes around!

Do people keep score on here! I'd better sh*t up then... :-)

I was only pulling your leg Halifax. You looked like you'd ask the same question several times. Didn't want to see the thread full of them. No offence meant.

Strawbs.

did not take out nymex contract, so only currently long oil insofar as i have iec, hawk and eo

halifax .... the world economy will be saved (recover) whether oil is $1 or $500 .... meanwhile, i trust you belong to the astute 1% who got out of the market at the top and have been shorting stocks ever since ..... if so, please tell us which ...... btw, as i am open on these things, i am currently short dow, wos, wpp, asc and mks, and just wish i had not been so purblind that i did not do it 2/3 months ago

Not the best day to go long crude.Forgot the trading rule regarding re. non farm payroll days...keep out as markets go mental and TA has no relevance...back to a hedged wti position !

i see nymex has dropped another couple of $, but shall not try to catch the bottom - or even, in this instance, give it a gentle squeeze tempting as that might be

as long as it isn't mine .....

:-)

you never know your luck!

Nice short from the bonkers rally at the close my favourite situation to trade dow and ftse at moment, make up for nymex!

Dow
weekly price/ rsi shows a potential divergance. suggests a good rally.
dont matter what i think. i'm still a bear.be careful, be patient.
regards
jkd

am staggered by Dow rise ..... i think totally nonsensical, but thus are the markets sometimes

Possibly a case of sell on the rumour, buy on the fact (normally the other way around for long players). Volume looked pretty light, so maybe not too convincing a rise. My guess is markets are starting to price in the turnaround. e.g. It's unlikely you'll get any more 500K + job losses in a single month, so a turning point perhaps has been reached. Both DOW and FTSE are attempting to form a base, but light volume is a bit of a worry. I remain sceptical. I suspect it will turn again come Monday or Tuesday, but we'll see. Light volume over Christmas and the New Year can do strange things to an already strange market!

In my opinion.

Strawbs

i am not often gloomy, but all looks pretty horrid almost everywhere in the world and likely to get tougher still over the coming months ...... 2009 does not augur well, though i would expect to see some market recovery in late Q2 or 3 as some sort of economic recovery is perceived in 2010

Technically the Dow surfed down to the bottom of the channel and back up to the top.Fundamentally it seemed totally ludicrous but not worth trying to stop a charging bull. Oil really tanked at the ICE and Nymex close and then rose after 4;30 and 7;30 so possibly a trading opportunity there in the same way ie buy at those times if it tanks for a short term retracement, a bit like the dow at the close! I am confused about oil. I had a watch of Bloomberg last night, quite entertaining listening to the experts or talking heads trying to explain the US rally though it seems there has been some sort of auto bail-out. Their report from Nymex suggested that oil bulls were extinct and that they were betting on $20 crude.We could be in a mirror situation to oil at $100 when no one thought it possible to go higher and boy did I lose that particularly fight. This situation here is better in that it is easy to work out the downside risk of oil at one dollar and if your bet is low leverage you will be gaining at the pumps and fueling the house. I thought $43 would have held but now it looks as if $40 is the next line in the sand and then $37! I'm beginning to think that oil could drop to any price in the short term with speculative pressure and fund redemptions and a resurgent dollar but it won't last for long especially when the dollar starts faltering next year and stagflation kicks in. I have read that Kuwait stopped exporting when it hit $55 and Russia has stopped exports and is just supplying domestic demand though not sure of accuracy as on a bb. If oil stays down for long the Majors are going to start sucking up cash strapped minnows and trout like a great big catfish!

Markets are forward looking and will be trying to pick the first signs of recovery between 6 and 9 months out. I generally look for a huge spike in volume, on an otherwise uneventful day (price wise) as a sign that things might be turning. The same can be said for the top of the market too, although I normally look for "economic events" to decide if the spike in volume might indicate we're at or near a top. Thus far I've seen nothing to make me think a turnaround is near.

The market will no doubt pick several false bottoms on it's way to the real one. I think stability in credit markets and the U.S. housing market are a prerequisite before the economy turns though, and both seem a long way off.

In my opinion.

Strawbs.

ref: Falcothou ; talking about the $, it seems surprising that it is doing so well, I can't help feeling that we are going to see it dropping like a stone at some stage, probably next year, I think that you are right about the majors picking up a few minnows, for instance ; Shell possibly snapping up Northern petroleum, now that they are partners, just an example of what could happen. The smallish companies with good prospects in the ground, but not enough cash will be targets !.