Forex rebates on every trade - win or lose!

tks darling - moving stop as we go

lots of congestion as you say at 184.20-30ish,
i got stopped out at 183.96 for + a few
thinking about a short if we go back to 184.15ish

mm; my thinking, as you can see is that the top(ish) is in for today,
but wtfdik. good luck.

Beebs,

I'm staying long for a bit longer. No surprises on the first round of resistance selling, but I'll be a bit surprised if it doesn't at least have another crack at it. I'm happy to admit that I might be wrong.

what you ? never......
good luck, and i'll let you know on here if i i go short,
but much lower now, and i may get into bed with you again....

were is the insurance sector going ?

B,

I was going to e-mail you in the week to say that it looks like it's time to start longing the lifers again. Looks like you'd realised that one for yourself.

Or did you mean UB83?

just got back in from picking up the car,
and wonder if its a buying opportunity
brewing up - looks a bit weak, and the 10.00
theory is blown away so far today,

which position do you favour doll ?

Swinging from the chandeliers, Beebs.

:o)

Was long from late last night, stopped an hour or so ago for a few. Staying out now till after G7 ..... range is too tight at the moment.

you naughty girl you......
i'd have thought you'd have better things to do
'late last night' than playing with the cable ;~)

i'm also watching from the sidelines, but may try a small long if we dip to 183.20ish again.

sadly never made 183.20, but this 160 point rise
on moderate empl. figs looks overdone,
typical of our cousins over the pond.

had my finger on the sell button at 185.00,
but forgot to hit it !

looks like i may get another chance soon,
might have run out of bottle by then

Hil, was sat in the pub having lunch watching cable on my phone (you should get one, y'know) when it rocketed as did EUR/USD. Give me the benefit of your wisdom and tell me why.

Derek,

I was on the commode at the time.

:o)

It was the US employment data at 1:30 which did it. This article from earlier today should hopefully explain why.

Been away for a week and not watched this thread for at least 10 days.

Zarif. My Saxobank trading demo site has come to an end, so can't get their advised positions on the various forexes (as opposed to the general comment). Do you know whether these are accessible from their normal site, or will I have to open a permanent trading site with them?

Does anyone think that we may be seeing the start of another medium-term uptrend on cable? A trend line drawn through the base of the trend from November to late December would now seem to be marking the resistance point and a good trend base seems to be forming.

http://www.economist.com/opinion/displayStory.cfm?story_id=2404984

Let the dollar drop

Feb 5th 2004
From The Economist print edition


Some think the dollar has fallen too far. On the contrary, it has not fallen by enough




THE dollar is the world's dominant currency. Should the world therefore be worried by its recent plunge against other currencies? Plenty of people seem to think so. When central bank governors and finance ministers of the G7 economies meet this weekend in Boca Raton, Florida, the fate of the dollar will be high on their agenda. Since 2001 the dollar has fallen by 33% against the euro and by 15% against the Japanese yen. Currency traders around the globe will scrutinise every word from Boca Raton, looking for a signal that governments might act together to stem the dollar's decline. Many businessmen will be holding their breath as well.

This is understandable. Any shift in currencies produces winners and losers. And yet the real problem facing the world economy is not a suddenly weak dollar, but a dollar which remains, even after its recent decline, too strong. The drop in the greenback was inevitable and should benefit both America and other countries, because it will help to reduce America's vast current-account deficit, which is arguably one of the biggest threats to the global recovery. For the same reason the dollar should, and almost certainly will, fall further. But some countries are not prepared to allow the dollar to fall by enough to complete the necessary adjustment to America's finances.

America's current-account deficit stands at 5% of GDP, and most economists reckon that this percentage needs to be reduced by at least half. That would stabilise the ratio of America's foreign liabilities to GDP, which has surged in recent years. So far the dollar has fallen by 15% in trade-weighted terms against a broad basket of currencies. Nevertheless, after adjusting for inflation, its value is still close to its 30-year average. It may need to fall by another 20% over the next few years if the current-account deficit is to be halved (see article).

American policymakers seem happy to let the dollar slide. Europeans, however, complain that the burden of adjustment has fallen disproportionately on their currency, the euro. As the euro has soared against the dollar, central banks in Japan, China and other Asian countries have bought dollars to hold down the value of their own currencies. By doing so, they financed over half of America's current-account deficit in 2003. Without that money the dollar would have fallen further.



Missing signals
In the short term, Asia might thus be seen as America's saviour. But in the longer term Asian governments are delaying a necessary adjustment by allowing America's deficit to loom large for longer. This is likely to lead to an even bigger and more dangerous build-up of American foreign debt.

The behaviour of Asia's central banks has also blunted the necessary market signals to which even America must, eventually, pay heed. The current-account deficit is a direct, arithmetical reflection of insufficient domestic saving. In particular, America needs to prune its government budget deficit. However, it feels even less reason than usual to do so. Normally, when a government's budget deficit swells so fast (to 4.6% of GDP this year, from a surplus of 2.4% of GDP in 2000) and its currency is falling, investors would demand higher bond yields to compensate them for the increased risk. That penalty gives governments both a warning and an incentive to borrow less. But Asian governments are devouring American Treasury bonds with little regard for the usual risk-return characteristics. As a result, bond yields are being held artificially low, subsidising America's borrowing spree.

This has allowed the Bush administration to point misleadingly to low bond yields as evidence that its budget deficit is not harming the economy, and to think that cutting the deficit is less urgent. President George Bush's plan, set out this week in his budget, to halve the deficit over five years is based on unrealistic assumptions and fantasy accounting (see article). A fiscal stimulus was justified when the American economy was on the brink of a deep recession in 2001, but now that the economy is booming again, borrowing needs to be cut.



Asia's game
In essence, Asian governments are buying American Treasury bonds in order to ensure that Americans can afford to keep spending money on Asian goods. This cannot go on forever. Despite their mercantilist instincts, sooner or later Asia's central banks will have to face the fact that they are holding far too many risky, low-yielding dollars. If they stop buying, it could trigger a sharp fall in the dollar and a jump in bond yields. Delaying the natural adjustment in the dollar and bond yields is likely to mean that, when the inevitable correction comes, it will be much more painful.

If financial markets do turn nasty, then everybody will carry some of the blame. Japan and China will be guilty of trying to block market forces and hence an earlier adjustment in America's trade deficit. With Japan's economy now growing faster than the euro area and its firms' profits surging, Japan can probably afford a stronger yen. Its continuing worry about deflation can be better addressed by printing more money. And China needs to allow its currency to move upwards, not just to help the rest of the world, but also to rebalance its own overheating economy. Without such a rebalancing, inflation or a property boom and bust could destroy growth. The Chinese might find it easier to accept such advice if they are given a seat at the G7 table, where they clearly belong.

The euro area is also far from blameless. Policymakers wring their hands about the brutal rise in the euro, yet the euro is still close to fair value against a basket of currencies. If Europeans are worried that a stronger euro will hurt their economies, then the solution is simple: the European Central Bank should cut interest rates to boost demand.

However, America must bear much of the blame for its failure to do anything to curb household and government borrowing and so boost saving. Its easy monetary and fiscal policies are now beginning to look reckless. The dollar's slide has rightly shifted some of the burden of economic adjustment on to other economies. Sooner or later, though, America will have to face up to its own responsibilities, too.

Can anyone recommend a good source of historical forex data (free or otherwise). For back-testing purposes I'd like 30min data for a number of years for GBP/USD and other majors.

Thanks

TPO

Anyone still here? I've re-joined the cable ride but this time I'm trying to manage a longer-term position rather than catch the intra-day moves. Currently in at 1.8650 with a stop at 1.8575.

hello dc, yup, i'm watching you !
looks a good trade, i'd like some at 186.50 as well,
greenspan may slow the market down a bit the next couple of days
- until he actually opens his mouth that is
good luck

Seems to be holding up well at the 1.8700 level. Looking for a break out above 1.8730 now to move forward.

FOREX-Dollar edges up on euro ahead of Greenspan
Reuters, 02.11.04, 8:02 AM ET


By Justyna Pawlak

LONDON, Feb 11 (Reuters) - The dollar edged up from the previous day's one-month low on the euro on Wednesday before testimony by U.S. Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan that markets will scrutinise for hints on future interest rate hikes.

Yield-boosting rate rises could help bring the dollar's long-term decline to an end, especially after the Group of Seven nations made no promises last week to support it in the event of the "disorderly movements in exchange rates" that concern them.

The Fed sparked speculation of an earlier-than-expected rate hike when it changed its emphasis in its last policy statement in late January. The Fed was seen laying the groundwork for raising U.S. rates by dropping its five-month old pledge to keep interest rates low "for a considerable period."

But weak U.S. jobs data subsequently gave markets pause for thought although other figures suggest the recovery is holding up.

"We are awaiting Greenspan now. The market will be on the lookout for any announcements that would appear to raise the possibility of rate hikes," said Tim Fox, market strategist at National Australia Bank in London.

"But Greenspan will not shed much light on the dollar given he usually defers to the Treasury on this...Given the latest labour market data he will not change his latest comments on the economy so I am not looking for any big signal on the dollar."

By 1235 GMT, the dollar was up a quarter percent on the day against the euro at $1.2657, up from Tuesday's one-month low at $1.2788.

It was steady at 105.52 yen but remained close to last week's three-year lows around 105.20. Expectations of Bank of Japan intervention to limit yen rises, balanced by exporters' dollar offers have recently kept the yen relatively stable against the dollar.

Against sterling, the greenback was steady on the day at $1.8688 just above the previous session's 11-year low of $1.8734.

In its quarterly Inflation Report, the Bank of England said it expected inflation to pick up sharply this year, boosting the pound briefly against the dollar and the euro as the hawkish tone kept British rate hike expectations firm.



BEFORE GREENSPAN

The Fed chairman delivers his semi-annual monetary policy testimony to the House of Representatives' Financial Services Committee at 1600 GMT, and to the Senate Banking Committee on Thursday.

Analysts expect Greenspan to tell Congress that U.S. economic prospects are good but to stress the central bank can be patient before upping interest rates from 1958 lows.

They also expect Greenspan to assure lawmakers that inflation is unlikely to flare up soon, given a weak job market and lots of spare productive capacity.

While analysts noted that dollar weakness was a function of foreign investors' unwillingness to fund the U.S. current account deficit, the dollar could still get a short-term boost if Greenspan gave a robust outlook for the economy.

"Although we are still in a structurally bearish trend, and the G7 outcome obviously reinforced that, we are perhaps looking at a pause in the long dollar decline as Greenspan delivers a relatively upbeat testimony," said Adam Cole, senior currency strategist at Credit Agricole Indosuez in London.

"Equally there is probably a risk that he talks about some return of pricing power to the corporate sector in the U.S. -- i.e. further diminishing deflation fears. Again, that should be relatively dollar supportive."

U.S. lawmakers are also likely to take the opportunity to grill the Fed chief on U.S. fiscal policy.

The Bush administration has forecast a record $521 billion deficit this year -- adding to the dollar's woes -- but has vowed to cut that in half by 2009.

Copyright 2004, Reuters News Service