One of the Lloyds Insurance Brokers and trading derd cheap on a p/E of only just over 4. There is of course a reason for this and it was the termination of talks with Highways Insurance Holdings Plc (late april) were both parties jointly terminated a possible combining of their respective businesses.

Investors took this as a negative sign with Cox and the shares plummeted and have been well oversold.


The plusses are that you can snap this up at a P/E of 4.2

2 Directors have bought into the recovery

The share trades at a large discount to the sector

Last results were excelent

The forward statement is very encouraging and business is well on track

The share is in uptrend and has been for 4 consecutive days.





please DYOR.

cheers GF.

i feel that the natural reaction of cox and their profesional advisers would be to justify that their current claims basis was correct............and indeed that was the actual action of both cox and their actuaries..

perhaps we could dream that both cox and their actuaries would indeed re-examine the claims figures and then say 'thankyou HIGHWAY for revealing your concerns .we have re-examined our files and looked at the nature and financial strengh of our re-insurance arrangements and you are correct. we are thus revising our claims reserves and these are now quite close to your figures.'
as stated this is just a dream.

i back that the approach of HIGHWAY is correct. i have some knowledge of insurers and their claims reserves. quite frankly it is all built upon sand and i have little confidence in claims people.see the mess of insurers who all trade for volume and not profit
some where there is a flaw in their[cox] motor claims estimating and highway have found it.
it may be that the reinsurance arrangements do not stand up....or reinsurance recoveries will not be made with certainty.

what i anticipate will happen is that cox will quitely tighten their appproach to claims estimates and so we shall see one or more adverse results arising as that approach starts to bite.

if cox have not got their claims figures right then one bad result is that cox is currently charging premiums which are to low. thus cox will have to put up their premiums by an extra margin. then what happens is that new business reduces and a higher % of their better policy holders move off elsewhere. the poorer quality policyholders tend to stay. the next consequence is that expense ratios increase and claims ratios get worse and so premiums need to go up more sharply again . so the wheel turns again and again. i have closely seen the cox experiance again and again over many years. i continue to hold a substantial number of cox shares because i anticipated that wood would do a purchase in view of his friendship with utley. i still feel that cox will be a target...always proving the pension fund trustees cooperate and that the actual hole in their pension fund is not too severe.

Cox Insurance Holdings PLC
14 June 2004



14 June 2004


For immediate release


Cox Insurance Holdings Plc ('Cox')

Clarification Statement re terminated discussions with Highway Insurance
Holdings Plc ('Highway') and robustness of reserve position


The Board of Cox has become aware of a press report which suggests that Cox may
be insufficiently reserved to meet its existing and future claims and which
speculates on the reasons behind the termination of Cox's discussions with
Highway. The Board of Cox wishes to correct a number of material inaccuracies
contained in the press report, clarify the events leading up to the Board's
withdrawal from the Highway discussions and confirm the robustness of the
Group's reserves as actuarially reviewed and included in its audited accounts.

Termination of discussions with Highway

On 30 April 2004, the Board of Cox announced that it had terminated discussions
with the Board of Highway regarding a possible combination of their respective
businesses, having determined that a transaction with Highway would not be in
the best interests of Cox's shareholders. At the time, Cox did not divulge any
background to the breakdown in discussions. However, in the light of misinformed
speculation, Cox now believes itself to be obliged, amongst other things, under
the UK Listing Rules to make some clarifying comments.

The termination of discussions with Highway was initiated by Cox after its Board
concluded that, although a combination with Highway could have delivered
substantial synergies, a transaction would not be suitably accretive either to
Cox's net assets or earnings based upon the expected amount of retained
business, reserving, and the need to conform accounting standards across the
combined group.

After becoming aware of Cox's concerns, Highway presented its draft views of
Cox's reserving position including comments attributed to EMB, Highway's
actuarial advisers, which purported to show that Cox's reserve position was
inadequate. At no stage prior to this presentation had Highway or EMB discussed
their views of Cox's reserving position with Cox's management or actuarial
advisers. On receiving this presentation, Cox promptly examined in detail each
of the statements relating to its reserve position and shared the presentation
with its own actuarial advisers. The Cox Board was fully advised of this
presentation and management's analysis and concluded that there was no substance
to the suggestion that Cox was under-reserved.

Robust reserving

Cox reaffirms that its own reserves position is robust. The audited consolidated
Group accounts of Cox include its share of the claims reserves held by Syndicate
218 at Lloyd's in respect of claims notified and claims incurred but not yet
notified to the Syndicate. The Syndicate's actuarial advisors, Deloitte
Actuarial & Insurance Solutions, reviewed the level of reserves required and
confirmed on 27 April 2004 that the amounts provided were adequate as at 31
December 2003. Cox confirms that the reserves included in its audited
consolidated Group accounts at that same date, which were audited by
PricewaterhouseCoopers, are adequate to cover its claims exposures.

As Cox stated in its announcement of 11 June 2004, a prudent approach to
underwriting and reserving is the fundamental characteristic of the business
philosophies of Cox and Syndicate 218 at Lloyd's and is the major factor behind
Syndicate 218's unparalleled success in delivering over 30 years of unbroken
profit.

Cox's track record, and that of Syndicate 218, demonstrate that their
methodologies for estimating claims liabilities are prudent, combining thorough
analysis of historical experiences and expert assessment of future trends,
taking into account the particular characteristics of different classes of
business.

Future development

On 11 June 2004, Cox announced the appointment of a new Group Chief Executive,
Andrew Fisher, to spearhead the next phase of the company's development. The
whole of the Cox Board, including the two principal shareholders represented on
it, are enthusiastically supportive of accelerating the delivery of enhanced
shareholder value by actively seeking out appropriate acquisitions and by
growing Cox's strong portfolio of businesses. With a strengthened management
team at the helm, the company is very well positioned to achieve its goals and
build on its position as a leader in the UK retail insurance market.

ENDS

Enquiries:

Cox Insurance Holdings Plc 01277 200111
Peter Owen, Chairman
James Morley, Finance Director

Hogarth Partnership Limited 020 7357 9477
Rachel Hirst/John Olsen

cheers GF.

This will do for me.

Cox rubbishes notion it has under-reserved
By Andrew Cave Associate City Editor (Filed: 15/06/2004)


Cox Insurance, the Lloyd's underwriter that ousted chief executive Neil Utley last week, courted fresh controversy yesterday when it said suggestions casting doubt on its level of reserves were "not worth a row of beans".



Cox chairman Peter Owen fiercely rejected claims relating to the acrimonious breakdown of the company's takeover talks with rival Highway.

Cox, Britain's seventh largest motor insurer with a stock market capitalisation of 200m, was widely expected to buy Highway after the two entered talks in March.

Both specialise in motor insurance - a sector rapidly consolidating - and are based in Brentwood, Essex.

However, Cox ended the talks in April, declining to give details. Yesterday, it issued a statement after being stung by suggestions it had been spurned by Highway because of concerns that it may have under-reserved against future claims.

According to a report, Highway became concerned after actuary EMB said Cox's potential exposure to motor injury claims could be 70m higher than an estimate by Deloitte, another actuary.

Mr Owen stormed: "This question of who walked away from the deal. It was us. This suggestion that Highway got last-minute nerves - that was not the case."

He said Cox decided against buying Highway because it would not add enough to net assets or earnings, based on expected retained business, reserving and the need to combine accounting systems.

After Cox voiced its concerns, Mr Owen said Highway gave Cox a presentation including comments attributed to EMB that "purported to show Cox's reserve position was inadequate".

"Our folks went through it line by line," Mr Owen said, "and it was not really worth a row of beans in terms of our reserving. I have no idea how they came up with it and you could not see it within their presentation.

"There was no arithmetic determination that leads to 70m. It was just a number that was in there. The board is comfortable with our reserving and our actuaries, auditors and our regulator are also comfortable with it."

Highway is led by executive chairman Ross Dunlop and chief Andrew Gibson and valued on the stock market at 66m. It declined comment.

Mr Owen said the Highway episode had no bearing on the decision to replace Mr Utley with former Coutts chief Andrew Fisher.

cheers GF.

WHAT THE BROKERS SAY

Strong Buy 3

Buy 0

Neutral 0

Sell 0

Strong Sell 0

Total 3

Covering Brokers
Bridgewell Securities, ABN Amro, Numis Securities, Panmure Gordon - Div of Lazard, Shore Capital Stockbrokers.

Excelent.

cheers GF.

Slater.
Sorry but you have it wrong about "GeatDane's" Trendseeker chart and you are misleading people but maybe not intentionaly.. I suggest you check this With "Great Dane" Who is the developer of this System..
A strong BUY is signalled when the line GOES UP through the GREEN LINE, NOT UP through the RED LINE as you have stated.

Great Dane's words not mine "Note that the BUY signal is when the curve goes UP through the BUY line".

Please note the BUY line is GREEN not RED.

I think also that the system is copywrite.
Hoping...

There are only two signal lines BUY and SELL, heres what greatdane said when I asked him if his software was showing a sell on this...................

"A SELL is when the trend line goes DOWN through the red line,yes. Usually this takes place after a couple of days' falling price".ENDS.

So therefore if it hasnt gone down through the red line but is up above it as is the case (and there hasnt been a couple of days price falls) and is up above the green line, surely this is a strong buy. There is no other logic that you can attribute to it.

Also note his reaction to my comments on the tax shelter where he immediatly posted the chart.............. "Wow, somebody must have noticed"

Fundies point to a strong buy, brokers point to a strong buy, the charts point to a strong buy and so do I.

Top of the leader board and a lovely 26% plus rise, you were saying thirdeye?????.

cheers GF.

Now up 30%.

cheers GF.