overgrowth
- 13 May 2005 16:36
Retail Decisions are
market leaders in an industry which continues to grow exponentially. They
produce payment fraud systems solutions for major blue chip clients globally,
though the bulk of the business is currently coming from the major reatilers
both in the UK and US.
They are a Techmark 100 company which means that there will always be
a level of institutional interest in the company. However, on top of this
"forced" interest from the tracker funds there has throughout
2005 been sustained large buying from no other than Goldman Sachs and
Barclays. These institutions together now have an investment of tens of
millions of shares in RTD !
|
|
Shares Magazine had
a cover feature back in early April entitled "ATOMIC! - Small is
about to get VERY, VERY BIG - 7 stocks for the new technology revolution".
It was no surprise to see Retail Decisions as part of the selection.
Here's what Shares
had to say:
"Retail Decisions is a specialist software developer aimed at preventing
credit card fraud. It owns a database of several million dodgy credit
and debit card numbers against which it crosschecks transactions, but
also has developed clever software which can spot strange patterns in
your spending. This system is perfect for stopping phony credit card transactions.
Investors could not ask for a better pure play on rising credit card crime.
Perhaps the company's biggest challenge is scale but chief exec Carl Clump
is attempting to address this with aquisitions, even if opportunities
seem to be few and far between. In the meantime, Retail Decisions remains
concentrated on developing in the card-not-present arena, where it already
has fantastic experience and technology.
The drive to win new customers should also be helped by the fact that
it already serves so many blue-chip customers including Marks & Spencer,
T-Mobile and, most recently, Federated Department Stores, the US owner
of Macy's and Bloomingdales.
Let's not forget, too, the company's highly profitable fuel-card business
in Australia which grew 30% last year, making this year's forecast low
single-digit earnings growth look on the conservative side."
Retail Decisions have
continued throughout 2005 to rake in very healthy profits from the Oz.
fuel card business thanks to the "bonus" of high oil prices
and favourable exchange rates. In addition, the extra revenue streams
from new major US corporate clients will be starting to filter through.
In the US, Retail Decisions appear to be chosen on many occasions over
their main rival Cybersource which indicates just how well this company
is doing.
The demand for card-not-present (i.e. internet/phone shopping) fraud software
is going to continue to grow and grow so RTD presents guaranteed success
in this arena - backed up with the cash cow fuel card business which is
being extended into locations other than Australia and we have a real
gem of a company. Longer term target 1+.
|

Oakapples142
- 21 May 2005 13:04
- 39 of 1009
Money Week have made it their "Gamble of the week" (20 May edition) Tom Bulford of the Fleet Street Letter suggests its a but up to 33p with a 12 month target of 45p. RTD customers include Wal-Mart and HSBC. Last year RTD processed over a billion payment transactions out of a global total of 31 billion (so there is much room for steady improvement).
blackbelt
- 22 May 2005 11:52
- 40 of 1009
I've ben waiting to ge into this one or a while Monday may just be a good entry point. Think il buy in a number of tranches to avoid getting burnt with bad timing......
pachandl
- 23 May 2005 10:24
- 43 of 1009
OG - I have already disagreed with that sentiment. A large part of RTD's profits are derived from the Aussie Petrol business, not internet retailing, so a comparison with Cyber is always going to be very difficult. Moreover, analysts hate to value businesses which are made up of totally different areas of trade (and consequent growth prospects), which is why RTD will always lag Cyber's P/E rating. But I continue to hold and still believe that 50p by year end is perfectly possible.
pachandl
- 23 May 2005 11:54
- 45 of 1009
OG - accepted. The US like punchier ratings for growth companies. It just shows how difficult it is to compare RTD and Cyber given their different listings and activities. Let's just hope that today's positive start runs through this week.
Fred1new
- 23 May 2005 23:30
- 46 of 1009
The problem or good thing about RTD s they don't release a lot of information except at interims (9/10/2005) and finals. Why should they? I doubt that the price will move back much until a week or two before the 9th
Fred1new
- 25 May 2005 11:17
- 47 of 1009
Having read my last post I would like some information. Price dropping ratio of Sells to buys 13/87. No news or information I can find. Is this the result of traders buying on the recent paper info and cutting losses and followed by the herd or has anybody got info they would like to share.
The fundamentals are sound, expectation good, can't see the contracts being renegade on, Why?
Looking at the charts I wouldn't buy, but?
capetown
- 25 May 2005 11:47
- 49 of 1009
I braved rtd @28.75,and will hold,as i agree with you,short and long term trend is UP
Fundamentalist
- 25 May 2005 11:53
- 50 of 1009
Personal thoughts for what its worth are that from a chart perspective things dont look great and if it gets to 26p, this will be a significant support area that needs to hold. On last yrs results on basic EPS of 1.06p this is still currently on a PE of 25 and on broker consensus of basic EPS it is still on a forward PE of over 20. I think the broker forecasts for this yr are conservative though i also think most holders expectations are optimistic. As i have said before i see fair value as approx 30p based on my prediction of this yr results, with the key components being turning the growth in online transactions/new contracts into revenue/profit growth and the size of decline in CP transactions/revenue/profits. If they can demonstarte the translation of increased CNP transactions into revenue/profits then the SP will rocket again.
Looking to buy back in but looking for chart support to hold or for the fundamental position to change
all imho dyor etc etc
Fred1new
- 25 May 2005 15:50
- 51 of 1009
I tend to agree but just a little more optimistic about the future. By the way where is optimistic.
Fred1new
- 25 May 2005 18:08
- 53 of 1009
overgrowth You will have to stop smoking that weed if you are seeing Optimistic on a BB,
*-)
Douggie
- 26 May 2005 10:13
- 55 of 1009
!....!
Oakapples142
- 27 May 2005 07:57
- 56 of 1009
Help - what are the likely affects of to-days RNS