nice starting point..

Deutsche are the same about TW. another buy rating today but won't go up ..

Interim Management Statement

Highlights

· Strong sales performance continues with 0.77 (2013: 0.68) net private reservations per active site per week for the period

· Net private reservations up 24.6% at 0.71 (2013: 0.57) per active site per week for the financial year to date

· Total forward sales as at 4 May 2014 up by 46.5% to £1,922.9m (5 May 2013: £1,312.3m), providing a strong position going into FY15

· Continuing to secure excellent land opportunities across all regions which meet or exceed our stringent minimum hurdle rates, and expect to approve c. 21,000 plots in FY14 (FY13: 18,536 plots)

· Confident we will deliver our FY16 ROCE(1) target of 18% significantly ahead of schedule

23, 28, 29 May:

Deutsche reiterates: BUY - TP as ever 453p.

Midknight - they are consistent!

Deutsche Bank Buy 361.55 453.00 453.00 Reiterates
28 May 14 Barratt... Deutsche Bank Buy 361.55 453.00 453.00 Reiterates
23 May 14 Barratt... Deutsche Bank Buy 361.55 453.00 453.00 Reiterates
16 May 14 Barratt... Deutsche Bank Buy 361.55 453.00 453.00 Reiterates
12 May 14 Barratt... Deutsche Bank Buy 361.55 453.00 453.00 Reiterates
09 May 14 Barratt... Deutsche Bank Buy 361.55 453.00 453.00 Reiterates
08 May 14 Barratt... Deutsche Bank Buy 361.55 453.00 453.00 Reiterates
30 Apr 14 Barratt... Deutsche Bank Buy 361.55 453.00 453.00 Reiterates
25 Apr 14 Barratt... Deutsche Bank Buy 361.55 453.00 453.00 Reiterates
24 Apr 14 Barratt... Deutsche Bank Buy 361.55 453.00 453.00 Reiterates
11 Apr 14 Barratt... Deutsche Bank Buy 361.55 453.00 453.00 Reiterates
09 Apr 14 Barratt... Deutsche Bank Buy 361.55 453.00 453.00 Reiterates
07 Apr 14 Barratt... Deutsche Bank Buy 361.55 453.00 453.00 Reiterates
04 Apr 14 Barratt... Deutsche Bank Buy 361.55 453.00 453.00 Reiterates
02 Apr 14 Barratt... Deutsche Bank Buy 361.55 453.00 453.00 Reiterates
01 Apr 14 Barratt... Deutsche Bank Buy 361.55 453.00 453.00 Reiterates
27 Mar 14 Barratt... Deutsche Bank Buy 361.55 453.00 453.00 Reiterates
20 Mar 14 Barratt... Deutsche Bank Buy 361.55 453.00 453.00 Retains
18 Mar 14 Barratt... Deutsche Bank Buy 361.55 453.00 453.00 Retains
17 Mar 14 Barratt... Deutsche Bank Buy 361.55 452.00 453.00 Retains

Goldman Sachs note:
"We upgrade our rating on Barratt Developments to Buy from Neutral.
Following a period of share price weakness – the shares are down 18% over the last 3 months – we believe current valuation does not appropriately reflect the earnings growth and improving returns we forecast. Given forward sales were reported up 47% yoy at the IMS on May 8 and the group expects to have secured more than 25% of its FY15 private sales by June 14, we believe the group is geared to the recovering UK housing market. We make no changes to our estimates or 6-month price target of 502p, which currently implies 41% potential upside.

Barratt currently trades on CY14/15 P/E multiples of 11.9x/8.1x and EV/EBITDA multiples of 8.9x/6.5x. We apply an unchanged P/E multiple of 10.2x to our CY15 EPS estimate (representing its 3 year median).

The key risks include: (1) UK housing transactions and pricing being weaker than we expect, (2) sharper and earlier interest rate increases than expected or (3) any adverse changes to regulation or government schemes for the new build sector."

Worth a watch if you missed it last night :-

Hot Property

June 27: Citigroup: Buy - TP: 460p.

If the Banks undertake the BOE remit to restrict multiples according earnings then it will be a struggle to maintain margins at the current rate.

Trading Statement

Highlights

· Significant increase in housing completions with the Group responding to uplift in consumer demand

· Average selling price growth of c. 13% for FY14 to c. £220k (2013: £194.8k) driven by increased delivery of larger homes in attractive locations and house price inflation

· Profit before tax for FY14 expected to be ahead of the top end of analysts' estimates(1) at c. £390m (2013: £192.0m before exceptionals)

· Group expected to exceed 18% ROCE(2) target in FY14 (2013: 11.5%), two years ahead of schedule

· Year end net cash balance of c. £70m (2013: net debt £25.9m)

· Total forward sales up by 44.7% at £1,200.5m (2013: £829.7m)

GALVAN BEARISH ON BDEV..........

Barratt Developments (BDEV) 14/july/2014

In a Q3 trading update on May 8th,
Barratts said that increased buyer
confidence and “the availability of
attractive mortgage finance continue to
support strong consumer demand for
our homes.”
Barratt also noted that the Help to Buy
equity scheme “remains a very
attractive opportunity for our customers
and, in particular, is supporting first
time buyers."
For the reporting period, Barratt said
that 2,150 of its new home reservations
used the scheme, with a total of 14,250
units expected to complete in 2014.
Barratts have secured “excellent land
opportunities across all regions”. This
commitment to buy-and-build ties up
loads of capital, which is fine and good
so long as the housing market
continues to grow at the current rate.
The percentage of new home
reservations using ‘Help to Buy’ vs. total
completions expected for the year
currently stands at 15% and will rise
substantially. Any housing market
correction will severely impact on these
numbers, and prompt a significant
downward readjustment in forward
sales estimates.

More From The Galvan Report........

Many economic commentators believe
we are undergoing a phoney recovery.

Even Nationwide concedes that “real
earnings growth remains sluggish”.

What we have today is strong house
prices without earnings growth.
This is a clear indication that the UK
property market is being propped up by
government policies that ultimately just
leaves people saddled with more debt.
That’s the thing about distorting the
market, history teaches us that it ends
in tears.
Evidence supporting this comes from
many quarters, but in particular the
retail sector, and the major grocers.
Tesco, Morrisons and other retailers are
losing money and market share hand
over fist to discount chains Aldi and
Lidl.
Arguably if we were seeing evidence of
the current recovery in every corner of
the UK, the major grocery retailers
would not have seen such a downturn
in sales as households opt for cheaper
products and lower bills.
Households are about to get squeezed
even more.

Rate rises are coming… and
soon.

I agree with some of that statement there GF ,i think that we have a false housing boom , down here in the south it's just gone stupid ,can't last ...
However i don't agree with the last piece about the supermarkets so much ,i think that Aldi and Lidl have come along and taken market share away , don't forget they have only recently become a force here , Tesco and all are now sharing their customers with two more players ,and fairly good ones at that ..

One of them this week as overtaken waitrose as the 6th largest retailer in the UK.

Actualy Jimmy theirs a lot more to that report I didnt want to post it here as I look upon you all as my buddies and its a bearish article.

Ill just post the link then you can follow it up if you like.

http://www.dianomioffers.co.uk/uploads/product_4461_pdf_link.pdf

Cheers GF i'm not in this but i am in TW .

Final Results

Highlights

· Significant increase in housing completions with the Group (7)responding to sustained strength in consumer demand across all areas of the country
· Private average selling price increased by 12.9% to £241,600 (2013: £213,900) driven by further changes in mix and some house price inflation
· Profit before tax more than doubled to £390.6m (2013: £192.0m before exceptional items)
· Strong cash generation resulting in net cash at 30 June 2014 of £73.1m (2013: £25.9m net debt), the first net cash position for eight years
· Continue to secure excellent land opportunities approving 21,478 plots for purchase and increased Group's controlled land supply to 4.7 years

Return on capital employed target and medium term Capital Return Plan

· ROCE up 800 basis points to 19.5% (2013: 11.5%) with new ROCE target set of at least 25% for FY17
· Ordinary dividend set at three times cover with final dividend proposed of 7.1 pence per share, giving a total ordinary dividend of 10.3 pence per share
· Special cash payment programme expected to return an incremental £400m to shareholders in the three years to FY17, with the first payment of £100m in November 2015

Outlook

· A return to more normal seasonal trends following exceptionally high levels of activity post the launch of Help to Buy in April 2013
· Private forward sales as at 7 September 2014 at £1,145.6m (2013: £880.4m) up 30.1% on the same point last year

House Prices Are Rising At 20 Times Wages
By Harvey Jones - Thursday, 18 September, 2014

Motley Fool.



We’re so used to frantic house price growth that we’ve come to see it as normal.

So when the Office for National Statistics (ONS) published figures this week showing UK house prices rose 11.7% in the last year, nobody blinked.

Crazy growth in London of 19.1% was similarly shrugged off. That’s just how London rolls these days.

On the same day, the ONS published the latest CPI inflation figure, which showed a slight dip to 1.5%.

I expected screaming headlines pointing out that house prices are now rising at eight times inflation, or almost 13 times in London.

Nobody seems to have noticed.

Wage Slaves
Here’s an even more astonishing figure. The ONS also published annual wage growth figures which showed that pay, including bonuses, rose a meagre 0.6% over the last year.

This means UK house prices are rising a mind-boggling 20 times faster than wages.

In London, the figure is almost 32 times faster.

This can only end one way.

20 Reasons Why House Prices Will Crash
Even more amazingly, most commentators in the property and mortgage industry actually welcomed the house price growth figures, claiming they were the sign of a healthy market.

I beg to differ. It is the sign of an insane market.

House prices simply can’t keep rising at 20 times wages.

Crazy Days
There is more growth to come. Estate agents and mortgage brokers are now gearing up for a hectic autumn, and they’re in a confident mood.

Lenders have embarked on yet another mortgage price war, as they battle to hit their lending targets before the end of the calendar year.

The property industry can smell blood, or rather money, and they’re not going to stop now.

Never Ending Mortgage
Worse, neither are buyers.

Instead of saying no to insane house prices, first-time buyers are stretching their repayment terms to as long as 35 or even 40 years, rather than the traditional 25-year term.

More than one in 10 existing homeowners are doing the same, according to figures from the Council of Mortgage Lenders.

Yes, this can cut your monthly repayments, but there is a price to pay.

If you took out a £150,000 repayment mortgage at 3.5% over 25 years, you would pay total interest of £75,282. Over 40 years, your total interest bill would be £128,923.

That’s £53,641 more.

Mortgage Madness
As Herbert Stein’s law says: “If something cannot go on forever, it will stop.”

The only question is when.

In April, the Financial Conduct Authority launched a regulatory overhaul called the Mortgage Market Review, designed to take some of the heat out of the housing market. That calmed lenders… for about a fortnight.

Bank of England measures to cut maximum loan-to-income ratios don’t appear to have slowed the beast at all.

If interest rates start rising next year, as most people assume, maybe that will put a brake on borrowing.

But even if rates do rise, and I’m not convinced they will, they will creep up only slowly. By historical standards, mortgages will remain dirt cheap.

Debt Disaster
Cheap money is the reason why house prices can outpace earnings. That makes servicing the interest much easier, but the ever-increasing amounts of capital we are borrowing to keep up must still be paid off.

No wonder household debt is going through the roof. Last year, it hit an all-time high of £1.43 trillion, according to the Bank of England.

At some point, the insane house price party will come to an end. And when it does, the hangover will be brutal. The financial crisis has taught us nothing.

Forget the BBC article today that was for August. They are behind.


House prices have finally started to fall after two years
After months of slowing house price growth, property prices have dropped in the capital, and stalled acrosss the UK

By Anna White, Property correspondent5:00AM BST 26 Sep 2014

House prices have fallen in London for the first time in nearly two years after a period of frenetic hikes in value, as demand in the capital finally dissipates.
"Modest” price drops in the London market are to be expected to follow this month's 0.1pc decline, according to the latest Hometrack report, as buyers reject inflated prices and force vendors to slash their expectations.
London suffered the most pronounced slowdown but overall the UK house prices stalled, recording zero growth for the first time in 19 months.
The combination of over-inflated prices, slow wage growth, stricter mortgage lending conditions and anxiety ahead of interest rate rises has put the brakes on the London market and stalled the housing market recovery across the majority of the country.
The only regions that enjoyed a slight uptick were Yorkshire and Humberside, the South East and the North East. The national survey by Hometrack found that values in all other areas were flat.

Demand for homes nationally fell by 2.1pc in September and the number of buyers registering with agents every month this quarter.
September normally marks a seasonal uptick in activity but the time it took to sell as home in the UK remained static from August.

“There is a distinct chill in the air this month; after a strong run over the last 18 months, the momentum of house prices rises has started to turn with growth now at a standstill for the first time since January 2013,” said Richard Donnell, director of research at Hometrack.
This correction, particularly in the London market, will help allay fears that prices in the capital would continue to rise uncontrollably, making the dream of homeownership unobtainable for many.

The average house price in Greater London breached the £500,000 ceiling last month, automatically imposing a 4pc stamp duty tax on families and workers across the region.
Hometrack’s new data came as a YouGov poll revealed that half of all Londoners polled believed they would flee the city if housing costs continued to climb
The study, conducted by the leading market research company for London First, a not-for-profit business lobby, warned that the capital faces a chronic housing supply crisis that could drive people away.
The majority of employees surveyed, 56pc, find it difficult to pay rent or mortgages costs and work in London.
For employees, £70,000 was the magic number to living comfortably in the city. The survey revealed that those earning over that amount found it easy to service mortgages and rents.
However, two out of five businesses surveyed said they are already concerned about the impact that London’s housing supply and costs are having on their ability to recruit and retain staff, while three quarters warned that a lack of supply and costs are a “significant risk to the capital’s economic growth.”
“London is a magnet for talent, no matter people’s background and means, is what keeps it ahead of the game,” said Baroness Jo Valentine, chief executive of London First.
“Our research lays bare the economic dangers of the housing crisis, particularly in terms of losing crucial skills of those aged 25-39, who find it the most difficult to live and work in the city.”
London should be a city for everyone with talent, not just those who can afford sky-high rent or mortgage costs, she continued.
Concerned that this dip in London’s price trajectory is temporary, she said: “We could be storing up major problems for the capital if we don’t address this. There will come a time when people will not keep travelling across counties and continents to make London the vibrant world city it is if they can only afford to live in a box or have to travel hours to get to work.”
Both these reports follow research from the property group, Savills, which came out earlier this week, and found that London had overtaken Hong Kong as the world’s most expensive cities for companies to settle in and locate employees.

Daily Telegraph.



BDEV with operating margins on 13BPS will be the first builder to feel the pinch. There margins are the lowest in the business.

Interim Management Statement

On track to deliver another significant improvement in performance

Highlights

· Market conditions remain robust across all regions of the country

· Group sales rate is strong and we are on track to deliver our target of 15,000 completions (excluding joint ventures ('JVs')) for FY15

· Net private reservations per active site per week (excluding JVs) of 0.63 (2013: 0.71) for the period, with the strength in the prior year reflecting the launch of Help to Buy in April 2013

· Private forward sales up 11.9% to £1,261.6m (2013: £1,127.4m) and JV private forward sales, which largely relate to our London business, up 49.7% to £293.1m (2013: £195.8m)

· Continued momentum on pricing driven by further mix changes, and some underlying house price inflation

· Continue to secure excellent land opportunities

FTSE promotion.

The winners

Barratt had previously been promoted to the FTSE 100 back in March this year, but was muscled out at the September review by the merger of mid caps Dixons Retail and Carphone Warehouse into the heavier-weight Dixons Carphone.

However, a 27% rise in Barratt's shares since September has put the company in line for a quick return to the top index. Despite the rise, Barratt trades on a modest forecast P/E of not much above 10 at a current price of 460p.

Taylor Wimpey's shares -- currently trading at 134p -- are up 18% since September.

The company, which was one of the hardest hit stocks during the recession, is set to rejoin the FTSE 100 after an absence of more than six years. Taylor Wimpey, too, is on a modest forecast P/E in the region of 10.

========

Peg .38

Trading Statement