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Dowgate Capital - Capitalising on the booming AIM market (DGT)     

overgrowth - 09 Feb 2005 20:52

Dowgate Capital (DGT) are sitting in the middle of a goldmine!

This company through their sole trading arm City Financial Associates are looking to take full advantage of the "booming" AIM market this year. Dowgate provide NOMAD (NOMinated ADvisor) services to AIM companies and also have full Corporate Broker status which means that they can fund placements on behalf of the companies they represent.

On first sight, the fact that Dowgate exist in the often veiled financial services sector makes you think twice about investing in company such as this because it would be impossible to understand what they were doing - however, think again!

DGT bring new companies to the AIM (Alternative Investment Market). For each new company "floated" on AIM, they take arrangement fees when acting as NOMAD. After the company is launched then for a nice steady earner DGT get another healthy chunk of cash every year for looking after them (note that all AIM companies must have a nominated adviser - thereby securing a ready source of recurring income).

Because DGT also act as a Corporate broker they can get a very healthy percentage for arranging placement of shares with insititutions before a new company floats. In addition, because placements come outside the sphere of yearly NOMAD work, they can also gain healthy percentages of placements which companies may need to make throughout the year when they need a quick injection of cash to speed growth.

Current NOMADships: 28 companies represented (gives recurring income of approx 480,000 per year)

Current on-going Brokerage agreements: 19 companies (income depends on placements)

For flotations, depending on the size of a company, fees charged will be anything from 50,000 to 100,000+ For placements (the real earner), DGT get anything from 3% to around 12% of the TOTAL AMOUNT RAISED - For example a new company raising 3M though a placement will earn DGT anything from 90,000 to 360,000 ! These figures are indicative as actual deals all differ due to circumstances and DGT sometimes take payment in shares - they still have a tasty chunk of Setstone shares and when this Russian exploration company comes back to AIM, predictions are that the share price will rocket. Note that the amount that this little company can earn in fees is huge and every new deal that comes through we know will contribute another healthy chunk into the bottom line. The good news with every new floatation means that it's another chunk of recurring revenue which could go on for years, with DGT having to do very little. New clients gained in 2005 are:

Mediazest (NOMAD & broker) Elite Strategies (NOMAD) Process Handling (NOMAD) Poland Investment Fund (NOMAD) Nanotech Energy (NOMAD & broker) Archimedia Ventures (NOMAD & broker) Red Leopard Holdings (NOMAD) Alba Mineral Resources (NOMAD & broker) Intandem Films (NOMAD & broker) Motive Television (NOMAD) IncaGold (NOMAD) Sportswinbet (NOMAD & Broker) Infoscreen Networks (NOMAD & Broker) Mark Kingsley (NOMAD & Broker) Croatia Ventures (NOMAD & Broker) Pantheon Leisure (NOMAD) Firenze Ventures (Ofex Advisor) FlightStore Group (NOMAD & Broker) Euro Capital Projects (NOMAD) Pearl Street Holdings (NOMAD) Worldwide Natural Resources (Ofex Advisor) Dovedale Ventures (Ofex Advisor) Other 2005 work completed:Neptune-Calculus VCT offer for subs of up to 12 million Advisory work for TGM on London Bus disposal for 20.4M Advisory work for Creightons on property disposal Advisory work for Hampton Trust on company restructuring Advisory work for Interbulk Investments on acquisition of Inbulk Advisory work for Fundamental-e Investments on two disposals Advisory work for Designer Vision re: Design Rights against Centurion Electronics

Click Here for fundamentals and profit projections.
Chart.aspx?Provider=Intra&Code=DGT&Size=Chart.aspx?Provider=EODIntra&Code=DGT&Si

overgrowth - 19 Apr 2005 13:06 - 373 of 2787

Have just seen the results guys and my thanks go to SD also for the excellent detailed analysis.

No surprises for me either - I was looking at a 300-400K loss so well within my predicted limits. We can now forget those one-off costs due to pay offs and look forward to a mean lean company machine going forwards.

It was particulary heartening to see that although 2004 transactions were much lower than expected that the turnover from Corporate fees and Commissions in 2004 (1,325) was still up on the previous year (1,199).

Also good to see that all the spare cash has not been dwindled away due to pay-offs - 500,000 at year end is very healthy.

TR and team have the right idea by committing to work hard and increase recurring income before looking at expanding the team. The more recurring work they get the better and ultimately I can see recurring income covering operating expenses totally which would enable the company to post some very tasty profits indeed.

Good to see that there was no adverse reaction from the market as predicted and now all the bad news is out of the way and we have a positive forward statement it looks as though the price today is at the bottom of the cycle - time to buy again methinks.

butane - 19 Apr 2005 13:17 - 374 of 2787

Currently .37p to buy.

sidtrix - 19 Apr 2005 13:21 - 375 of 2787

Was offered .35p to buy (HoodlessBrennan)

stockdog - 19 Apr 2005 13:48 - 376 of 2787

I'm certainly looking to buy more over the next few days (just wait a beat for uncertainty in the general market to resolve itself, I think)

SD

Adacol - 19 Apr 2005 14:04 - 377 of 2787

Have just bought 566,000 at 0.35p....showing as a sell!

stockdog - 19 Apr 2005 14:07 - 378 of 2787

Interesting - the spread has closed from 0.10p to 0.07p - bid still at 0.33p, but offer now only 0.40p down from 0.43p - MMs keen to get some buys going? Any interpretations from the experts, please?

SD

overgrowth - 19 Apr 2005 14:19 - 379 of 2787

SD - The MMs will have glanced at previous news (given that results were out) and then spotted that virtually all the 2004 costs were down to exceptional costs and the comment "Despite the inevitable disruption and expense caused by these departures....", they as impartial outsiders would conclude:

1) Results are pretty good considering the previous warning - particularly as most of it was in payoffs.

2) The current board saw the guys leaving as not adding much value to the company as a whole and last year positively disrupting things - best to get shut.

3) We'll probably get plenty of sellers thinking this is bad news and then lots of buyers when they realise it's actually good news.

Unfortunately, 3) hasn't worked for them because hardly anyone's sold - however they must now acknowledge that as the results sink in more and more buyers will be interested particularly if the price and spread are right.

All my amateur psycholgy ramblings of course. Probably what really happened is "Oh I see CFP's results are out"...."Hmmm not much trading"..."Let's tinker with the limits and see what we can drag out".

stockdog - 19 Apr 2005 14:25 - 380 of 2787

og - do me a favour and don't keep saying the results are quite good actually - I need a couple of days to be in funds to top up, knowadimean. Very happy with offer at 0.4p till then.

SD

slmchow - 19 Apr 2005 14:27 - 381 of 2787

copy from other bb

Growth Dabbler - 19 Apr'05 - 13:40 - 7174 of 7191

Results totally as expected to me guys and as carchase says - now all the bad news is out of the way - the only way for the sp to go from here is up.

schow - In the results it says that Net assets at 30th June were 914,000 and at 31st December they were 607,000 largely as a result of exceptional costs. I take that to mean that the payoffs cost the company in the region of 300K.

As at the end of December I was looking at possible trading loss due to non-materialising deals in Q4 2004 of around 125K.

Given that the posted loss is 375K, then if we take out the cash spent on non-recurring costs (307K), the trading loss was only 68K - pretty good going for a bad year!

This indicates that given the work completed so far in 2005 and the current prospective deal list (which TR mentions) that CFP should be easily posting a decent profit for 2005.

Looks like the price has dipped nicely today providing an ideal opportunity for for any toppers-up to take advantage - I have a feeling that when the results fully sink in, that buyers will be paying a lot more in the near future.

carchase - the AGM date is mentioned in the results - 25th May.

stockdog - 19 Apr 2005 14:30 - 382 of 2787

I think I see what it is now overgrowth - the trades have all been on the sell side, the MMs would like a balanced book in all penny stocks each night I owuld think at current state of the market. So they've had to reduce the offer to get back in balance by end of the day, whilst holding the bid steady so as not to frighten any more sellers out.
Does this work as a theory?

SD

EWRobson - 19 Apr 2005 14:33 - 383 of 2787

stockdog

Thanks for the analysis which looks very sound. I wonder whether the cost porfile is overstated: 'in addition to the costs of running the holding company' (presumably, Shaw and Barclay) appears to state that these costs have been eliminated; non-recurring one off costs includes compensation for loss of office and legal fees in relation to former directors and bad debt provisions; 'in the current year, following a detailed review, overhead costs have been considerably reduced whilst maintaining and streamlining the oeprational capability of the business'. So we should at least be back to the figure of 600 per half year of the last interims which , of course, included Barclay and Shaw, and could be nearer 1 million.

Rawlinson is obviously keen not to offer any hostages to fortune after the experience of late last year. However, I liked a couple of comments: first, the focus on achieving profitability before committing to growth; second, 'sufficient transactions are likely to be completed out of our work in progress pool to acheive our fee targets over the nest few months'. Linking these, the targets are likely to take the company into profitability, perhaps in the third quarter, and these can achieved with work currently in progress.

I hope we get a trading review in July; there was one in December but not July last year. Finally, sd is a clever dog and should have treats; can moneyplus perhaps oblige!

Eric

overgrowth - 19 Apr 2005 14:34 - 384 of 2787

SD - It would normally work as a theory, though there are in actual fact quite a few buys today - it's just that the trades screen is marking them all as sells!

stockdog - 19 Apr 2005 14:47 - 385 of 2787

og - so what do i know!

eric - I must say we're pretty consistent across these threads - I always seem to view my glass as about five eighths full, you usually see it just a tad rosier (or should that be rosr, or even riojaer?) at two thirds full, but we're both on the same side of halfway and looking up to the brim!

gross babble from the other board has got the right sentiment, inaccurately expressed, from a complete balls up of the figures. It is 116k better than s/he says.

The increase from 607k to 914k net assets/shareholders funds is due to the 439k fundraising less 132k deficits from P&L net of amortisation, depreciation and something else I can't quite lay my hands on. This has NOTHING to do with the adjusted operating result per se.

The costs of clearing out the old wood are quite clearly noted as approx 414k. So the overall outturn of 366k loss represents a profit of 48k on continuing activity.

QED SD

butane - 19 Apr 2005 14:53 - 386 of 2787

Looking at the trades, i make it ..buys = 1,723,696 which make it approx 50/50 of the total trades.

moneyplus - 19 Apr 2005 15:12 - 387 of 2787

SD.Moneyplus can offer a free shampoo and trim for all the hard work--may even throw in a blow dry!! that do Eric?

stockdog - 19 Apr 2005 15:14 - 388 of 2787

sounds good, but what will pierre-marie my regular cutter say?!

now, I'll just lie back and relax - ouch, mind that water, it's a bit hot. ah, that's better, conditioner, yes please - and, er, can you do that head-massage thingy with your fingers - oh my god that's it - excuse me the rest is censored.

Us dogs have feelings too you know.

SD

butane - 19 Apr 2005 15:15 - 389 of 2787

We might get more news after the AGM............


CFP....Annual General Meeting
The Annual General Meeting of the Company will be held at the Offices of Field
Fisher Waterhouse, 35 Vine Street, London EC3N 2AA at 11am on Wednesday 25 May
2005.

Adacol - 19 Apr 2005 16:45 - 390 of 2787

I make the buys today at least 2,425,537!
I bought 556,000 at 0.35p showing as a sell.

butane - 19 Apr 2005 17:02 - 391 of 2787

I make it 2.1 mill buys and 3 mill sells

overgrowth - 19 Apr 2005 17:12 - 392 of 2787

Adacol - I agree.

I think that the first sale went through at 0.35p and the rest went through at 0.33p apart from those above NMS which were penalised 3 ticks and had to sell at 0.30p.

All the rest were buys. The last trade at 300,000 looks like a limit order buy.

Just out of interest, to see how skewed the trades screen can make things look, I bunged the figures into a spreadsheet and came up with:

Buys: 2,425,537
Sells: 2,987,026

Which is pretty good for a day when there was an outside chance that the results could have been taken badly by the markets.

Volume overall was very low for a results day, which suggests that those who are in already are happy to hold on for the big gains to come during 2005, and that there was no nasty "surprise" element in the results.

Intandem are due to float on Friday which may well attract more investors to the potential of CFP.

I suspect that long term holders will also be topping up in the next few days (like yourself) though are either waiting for funds like SD or are waiting for evidence that the price has bottomed out (I think it has and will go up from here).

After the last sell of the day I noticed that the MMs put the offer back to 0.43p - with a bit of sustained buying pressure they're going to mark the price up very quickly.
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