rather than pick out individual stocks to trade, it can often be worthwhile to trade the indices themselves, especially in times of high volatility.

for those so inclined, i attach below charts for FTSE and FTSE 250, though one might equally be tempted to trade Dow or S&P, which is significantly broader in its coverage, or even NASDAQ

for ease of reading, i have attached 1 year and 3 month charts in each instance

M&S destocking so-called fashion items is nowhere near the same as base chemicals .... fashion has a season, and once that is past, the stock is almost worthless .... they need to get rid of it and fast!

i can tell you now, that saudi has effectively stopped well development, but Aramco who control this sort of thing, are notoriously fickle and even disorganised and are almost as likely to hit the panic button in late jan/feb as to stay standing still.

my own view is that the current oil price is as much speculator driven as was the silly level reached earlier this year ..... US monthly crude stock report will give the obvious clue as to demand, and hence the likely course of crude prices ..... however, as posted before, i would still be far from surprised to see crude spiking before year end

Hope so Cynic !.

money and mouth have now joined hands, to mix a metaphor, and have just taken a small long in Feb Nymex at $41.07 ..... there is a premium in there of (i guess) about $1.00 so you can easily track my gloom and elation vicariously!

A long bet on the FTSE at 4200 looks a reasonable bet to me ?

along bet at 4200 followed by a short bet at 4300 - would have been an excellent bet - shame I did not follow my own advice - but I have lost too much on the indices in the past - prefer to watch you professionals

lol. There's nothing professional about my portfolio I can assure you!

just possible my prediction that many crude short positions would be closed before year end could be coming true

I suspect low volumes and liquidity is helping a number of markets and shares at the moment. Unrest in the Middle East no doubt helps the oil price too. True market direction probably won't become clear until after the New Year. I must confess I'm not sure what it'll be yet though. My best guess is a sell off early on due to poor trading figures, unemployment etc., followed by an "Obama bounce" as we get close to the change over. It could equally go the other way though. Guess it depends on how the New Year hang overs play out. :-)

Good luck all with trading in 09.....

Strawbs.

A bit frightening when we don't really know whether the FTSE is heading for 2000+ or has already bottomed out. So many unanswered questions that I suspect will be answered in the next 3-6 mnths.

Most of the articles which I have read recently believe that the first quarter of 2009 will be difficult as many companies will report poor figures, unemployment will rise & the pound is weak against other major currencies. But the consensus of opinion seems to agree that the pound will strengthen against the dollar as the current $ strength is not built on any sustainable fundamental reasons & the U.S. budget deficits are going to be difficult to turn around coupled with high U.S. unemployment. Long term inflation in the U.S. & a weaking dollar(?) also seem to indicate that gold is going to be a good haven for investors.
The only commodity which no one seems to be able to agree on is oil. I have seen anything from $28 to $95pb, but if the price of oil doesn't increase then the russians are also going to be in trouble in 2009. Another conflict somewhere would certainly help the price of oil however, India/Pakistan, Middle East or Black Sea/Caspian sea areas???

I have stopped putting links to bullish articles on the day trade thread. Nobody shows any reaction to them. I would not mind a 'what a load of poppycock' once in a while. But I guess if you trade on the rumour and sell on the news then there will never be a time when it's not NO News is Good News.

And anyway if you are a day trader you don't need hope that things are sorting themselves out to make money - it's just whether you can keep it !!

However, this was in the FT on Saturday. The author makes some interesting points and I hope that at least some of them are true.

Glass half full time.....

TP

Ftse at 4400 - time to go short I think

i am certainly more than happy to stay SHORT of ASC, WOS, WPP and MKS ...... i think the december/january retail numbers will be vile with cautious forward trading statements at best

OIL
So far, no doubt through beginner's luck, i have called Nymex correctly over the last couple of days and managed to make a tidy profit, most of which i have already banked.

It now remains to be seen whether this is just year end book-squaring or a more fundamental change of direction

I expect although 4th quarter news in price that it will be worse than expected so agree with the short position bhunt. My target test of 4000 by end of month

OIL
could be some very sore bears on friday if they have not been paying attention tonight

...........................

and i have now closed all Nymex positions, and what a cheery end to a truly horrid 2008

Lets hope for a better 2009 at some point, it can't be any worse.

My new years resolution = Always sell at my stop/loss and be happy too take the loss.

interesting article TP. Has the usual number of ifs, buts and maybes with a disclaimer at the end, but interesting nonetheless :-)

cynic having made a tidy profit at $41.07 on feb nymex where to now?

not sure immediately .... nymex got up to $44 in NY last night, but am pretty sure that was year end tidying up as has fallen back to $42.65 after hours...... tomorrow's trading is also likley to be a bit distorted, but it may be quite lively if you have the time to watch and trade accordingly.

over the next few months, i certainly expect nymex to strengthen north of $50 and maybe considerably more

i am travelling a lot over the next couple of weeks, so may well steer clear, which would certainly be the prudent stance