rather than pick out individual stocks to trade, it can often be worthwhile to trade the indices themselves, especially in times of high volatility.

for those so inclined, i attach below charts for FTSE and FTSE 250, though one might equally be tempted to trade Dow or S&P, which is significantly broader in its coverage, or even NASDAQ

for ease of reading, i have attached 1 year and 3 month charts in each instance

Ftse at 4400 - time to go short I think

i am certainly more than happy to stay SHORT of ASC, WOS, WPP and MKS ...... i think the december/january retail numbers will be vile with cautious forward trading statements at best

OIL
So far, no doubt through beginner's luck, i have called Nymex correctly over the last couple of days and managed to make a tidy profit, most of which i have already banked.

It now remains to be seen whether this is just year end book-squaring or a more fundamental change of direction

I expect although 4th quarter news in price that it will be worse than expected so agree with the short position bhunt. My target test of 4000 by end of month

OIL
could be some very sore bears on friday if they have not been paying attention tonight

...........................

and i have now closed all Nymex positions, and what a cheery end to a truly horrid 2008

Lets hope for a better 2009 at some point, it can't be any worse.

My new years resolution = Always sell at my stop/loss and be happy too take the loss.

interesting article TP. Has the usual number of ifs, buts and maybes with a disclaimer at the end, but interesting nonetheless :-)

cynic having made a tidy profit at $41.07 on feb nymex where to now?

not sure immediately .... nymex got up to $44 in NY last night, but am pretty sure that was year end tidying up as has fallen back to $42.65 after hours...... tomorrow's trading is also likley to be a bit distorted, but it may be quite lively if you have the time to watch and trade accordingly.

over the next few months, i certainly expect nymex to strengthen north of $50 and maybe considerably more

i am travelling a lot over the next couple of weeks, so may well steer clear, which would certainly be the prudent stance

well my short would not have done so well at 4400 - so far. But this just feels too high too soon.

I guess I would be going short again at about 4500 - but then again I got the last one wrong !!

Well - I feel a short now at 4501 would be a good bet !!

Mmm - what do I know !!!

be aware that trading is very thin, so numbers easily exaggerated

Volume still looks pretty poor to me. Without serious conviction the moves between Christmas and New Year could easily be wiped out next week. By Tuesday or Wednesday I think direction will become clearer. Personally I haven't a clue which direction that'll be, but my gut instinct would be down again....

In my opinion.

Strawbs.

don't disagree, especially in the retail sector ..... still bullish crude, and have done very well so far

cynic maybe better to be in refined products rather than crude?

why? .... though i accept that crude is for trading so requires attention, whereas an oilie like PMO or TLW for instance, may be regarded as longer term holdings

cynic no shortage of crude at the moment refinery maintenanance shutdowns likely to push up price of refined products.

OIL
still proving to be a most profitable trade ...... am determined not to be greedy and have (so far) checked out each evening that i have played, with a profit .... thought of leaving this evening's in play with a close'ish stop but banked profit instead

Well done cynic - always good to bank a profit.