Forex rebates on every trade - win or lose!

Arrived at home to have suspicion confirmed, overly paranoid stop on cable took me out of potential 100 points gain for net +0...not clever.
Only saving grace my little pet NZD/USD taken out for +30 so day wasn't a complete flop...

[CABLE] has digested the Budget and now has Feb retail sales data to contend wi...
[CABLE] has digested the Budget and now has Feb retail sales data to contend with, with the 9.30GMT report set to provide evidence of how consumer's spent in the wake of a flat Dec-Jan period. The data will be key for interest rate expectations, with June Short Sterling currently at 94.91, just off recent lows. Recent choppy trading in Cable has left positioning relatively flat on an intra day perspective, though at current 1.9240/50 levels the Pound is at levels that yesterday witnessed good real money sellers, with 1.9300 proving particularly hard to break and hold of late. With this in mind, dealers are set to sell into tests to 1.9300, with a stop through 1.9330 and bids 1.9180-00. As for Eur/Gbp, the market found good support into 0.6940 yesterday and as such looks set to hold a 0.6940/7000 range in the near term.

From a forex site

There is talk of a Custodial account on the bid in [CABLE] with this providing a base into 1.9245/50 currently and prompting some interest among specs to go with the buying. The name is often associated with large one off orders and as such there is keen interest to see if this is one of them, with the market eyeing a possible test back up to the 1.9300 area. Overall Sterling is performing well, with Eur/Gbp also off its peaks as the Cable buying impacts.

divetime sitting tight awaitng figs..

/Yen might look toppy and staying within lower highs boundaries?

There are times when this game is a killer, can't find a trade even I will take on, which is saying something!
EUR/USD too close to doing something!!?, EUR/CAD must do, but timing is way off, left with small long NZD/USD, nuts.

Just got back in from a crap week, full of a cold but built some long positions at 135, 140 and 145. Closed 'em all @ 176 - brightened my week up no end.

Will go in again if we get a pull back to the 170 level - otherwise I'll be happy with my Friday night Balti.

Well done mg,I tend to win one loose one, but just holding my own,are any of the online courses being offerd by various FX sites worth subscribing to?

divetine www.fxstreet if u sign up register its free have a lot of weeklyo nline q@a sessions some of it is quite good.

Mos thanks for that will have a look.

divetime
Been there - new strategy - trying win one, miss the loss, go for the win ;)

What I have found is that idle hands = poor trades; boredom, looking for the next trade = "just for the buzz" losing trades. If I stick to the simple stuff, 25 EMA crossing 60 SMA then it tends to work - on a better than average. THANKS HILARY.

It sometimes works !!

mg,
Did you ask permission to write my biography, cos I think you just did...:-)
Last trade (NZD/USD long) went tail up, third time this week a good opening was killed by poor stop positioning, cost collectively 360 points, clearly need a strategy re-think if I am to survive in this arena!
Only good part, stops at least bailed me for tiny loss, but should have done MUCH better.

Not at this very minute, not necessarily in the next couple of hours, but at some stage maybe today or tomorrow, you guys should be starting to buy the Euro ahead of any other currency imo.

Thanks, Hilary. I will keep a watch - I find it essential to have a plan in mind... even if I don't keep to it.

Like Stormcaller most of my bad trades have come after an impulse decision when I had no plan in mind.

Thanks for the nod Hils, will keep a watch

Euro getting hammered at the moment

so did i jm tried to long stg a few times......turned out to be a silly idea..

I am a novice fx interested party.

So take or leave what I report.

Here we go.

As predicted over last week.

Forex - Dollar rallies in anticipation of a new U.S. rate hike - UPDATE 4
AFX


NEW YORK (AFX) -- The dollar shot higher Monday, one day before the Federal Reserve meets to decide on what is widely expected to be another increase in U.S. interest rates.

Additionally, a Hong Kong monetary official's admonition against Asian central banks rushing to build up euro reserves probably helped lift the U.S. currency.

In late trading in North America, the euro was down 1.1 percent to $1.3170 as the British pound lost 1.2 percent to trade at $1.8985.

The dollar traded at 105.10 yen, up 0.4 percent, following a holiday in Japan.

There were no U.S. economic data reports Monday and currency markets spent the session focusing on widespread expectations that the policy-making Federal Open Market Committee will hike rates by a quarter of a percentage point, bringing its target federal funds rate to 2.75 percent.

That would mark the seventh consecutive FOMC meeting in which rates have been increased by this amount.

Mike Malpede, senior currency analyst at Refco, said the euro's losses also were linked to reports quoting Hong Kong's monetary authority chief as suggesting that Asian central banks shouldn't be in a hurry to raise their euro reserves at the expense of the dollar.

The Hong Kong official, Joseph Yam, warned of a danger that the euro could become so popular in Asia that the stability of international finance would be threatened.

Malpede also noted a broad agreement reached by European finance ministers on Sunday to loosen budget spending rules applying to members of the European Union, further pressuring the euro.

The reforms that the ministers proposed making to the EU Stability Pact still need formal approval, but few analysts expect large-scale alterations.

Specifically, the ministers left deficit limits in place but sought to make the system less strict. Germany and France, both of which have broken rules stipulating that budget deficits be kept below 3 percent of gross domestic product, are viewed as the victors.

Sean Callow, chief currency strategist at IdeaGlobal, warned that a more lax fiscal stance could lead to a subjugation of monetary policy, resulting in an increase in money supply and eventually sparking inflation in the long-term.

Michael Woolfolk, Senior Currency Strategist at the Bank of New York, cautioned that the dollar's gains Monday should not be mistaken for a longer-term correction, noting that the dollar remains 'within a relatively well-worn, albeit broad, trading range against the euro right now.'

Focus is on FOMC statement

Because so many analysts assume that a new quarter-point rate hike by the FOMC is a given, currency market participants focused on the statement that will accompany Tuesday's policy decision.

Refco's Malpede said there is increasing speculation that the FOMC in its statement could abandon its stance in favor of small, incremental rate increases and opt for a policy of more aggressive rate hikes.

Exceptionally high commodities prices seen lately, including record prices for crude oil, could convince Fed officials that their stance of taking a 'measured' pace toward rate increases is no longer appropriate, according to the analyst.

Abandoning the 'measured' pace policy would give the monetary officials leeway to order larger rate increases at future meetings.

However, Ashraf Laidi, chief currency analyst at MG Financial Group, said 'We do not think that the Fed will accelerate its rate hikes as we still see Fed funds topping at 3.25 percent by year-end.'

'In the long term, the mere notion of traders expecting faster rate hikes in order to contain inflation rather than stronger growth is a clear negative for the dollar, especially when higher oil is synonymous to higher imports i.e. a deteriorating trade deficit,' Laidi said.

This story was supplied by MarketWatch. For further information see www.marketwatch.com.

I should add that Bloomberg interviewed some guy who knows, who said this would not halt the dollar slide long term.

Never remember names, but he advocated long on cable (my view is for what that is worth, therefore probably not a lot).

Good luck all.

Currently short cable @ 83, which I hope will bail me out of EUR/CAD short which I am saying prayers for, given Hilary's comments above. Better not mention EUR/USD short I suppose. If it all goes base-over-apex have stops in for net -34 points, of course if it goes well, I might even break-even!

Whilst concerns over global central bank diversification and the ever widening US trade deficit will continue to weigh on the dollar, the FRB's tightening bias should be supportive to the dollar in the medium term. Some strategists are of the opinion that a rising US rate differential could restrict market willingness to short the dollar and end its weakness.