Forex rebates on every trade - win or lose!

mg,
Did you ask permission to write my biography, cos I think you just did...:-)
Last trade (NZD/USD long) went tail up, third time this week a good opening was killed by poor stop positioning, cost collectively 360 points, clearly need a strategy re-think if I am to survive in this arena!
Only good part, stops at least bailed me for tiny loss, but should have done MUCH better.

Not at this very minute, not necessarily in the next couple of hours, but at some stage maybe today or tomorrow, you guys should be starting to buy the Euro ahead of any other currency imo.

Thanks, Hilary. I will keep a watch - I find it essential to have a plan in mind... even if I don't keep to it.

Like Stormcaller most of my bad trades have come after an impulse decision when I had no plan in mind.

Thanks for the nod Hils, will keep a watch

Euro getting hammered at the moment

so did i jm tried to long stg a few times......turned out to be a silly idea..

I am a novice fx interested party.

So take or leave what I report.

Here we go.

As predicted over last week.

Forex - Dollar rallies in anticipation of a new U.S. rate hike - UPDATE 4
AFX


NEW YORK (AFX) -- The dollar shot higher Monday, one day before the Federal Reserve meets to decide on what is widely expected to be another increase in U.S. interest rates.

Additionally, a Hong Kong monetary official's admonition against Asian central banks rushing to build up euro reserves probably helped lift the U.S. currency.

In late trading in North America, the euro was down 1.1 percent to $1.3170 as the British pound lost 1.2 percent to trade at $1.8985.

The dollar traded at 105.10 yen, up 0.4 percent, following a holiday in Japan.

There were no U.S. economic data reports Monday and currency markets spent the session focusing on widespread expectations that the policy-making Federal Open Market Committee will hike rates by a quarter of a percentage point, bringing its target federal funds rate to 2.75 percent.

That would mark the seventh consecutive FOMC meeting in which rates have been increased by this amount.

Mike Malpede, senior currency analyst at Refco, said the euro's losses also were linked to reports quoting Hong Kong's monetary authority chief as suggesting that Asian central banks shouldn't be in a hurry to raise their euro reserves at the expense of the dollar.

The Hong Kong official, Joseph Yam, warned of a danger that the euro could become so popular in Asia that the stability of international finance would be threatened.

Malpede also noted a broad agreement reached by European finance ministers on Sunday to loosen budget spending rules applying to members of the European Union, further pressuring the euro.

The reforms that the ministers proposed making to the EU Stability Pact still need formal approval, but few analysts expect large-scale alterations.

Specifically, the ministers left deficit limits in place but sought to make the system less strict. Germany and France, both of which have broken rules stipulating that budget deficits be kept below 3 percent of gross domestic product, are viewed as the victors.

Sean Callow, chief currency strategist at IdeaGlobal, warned that a more lax fiscal stance could lead to a subjugation of monetary policy, resulting in an increase in money supply and eventually sparking inflation in the long-term.

Michael Woolfolk, Senior Currency Strategist at the Bank of New York, cautioned that the dollar's gains Monday should not be mistaken for a longer-term correction, noting that the dollar remains 'within a relatively well-worn, albeit broad, trading range against the euro right now.'

Focus is on FOMC statement

Because so many analysts assume that a new quarter-point rate hike by the FOMC is a given, currency market participants focused on the statement that will accompany Tuesday's policy decision.

Refco's Malpede said there is increasing speculation that the FOMC in its statement could abandon its stance in favor of small, incremental rate increases and opt for a policy of more aggressive rate hikes.

Exceptionally high commodities prices seen lately, including record prices for crude oil, could convince Fed officials that their stance of taking a 'measured' pace toward rate increases is no longer appropriate, according to the analyst.

Abandoning the 'measured' pace policy would give the monetary officials leeway to order larger rate increases at future meetings.

However, Ashraf Laidi, chief currency analyst at MG Financial Group, said 'We do not think that the Fed will accelerate its rate hikes as we still see Fed funds topping at 3.25 percent by year-end.'

'In the long term, the mere notion of traders expecting faster rate hikes in order to contain inflation rather than stronger growth is a clear negative for the dollar, especially when higher oil is synonymous to higher imports i.e. a deteriorating trade deficit,' Laidi said.

This story was supplied by MarketWatch. For further information see www.marketwatch.com.

I should add that Bloomberg interviewed some guy who knows, who said this would not halt the dollar slide long term.

Never remember names, but he advocated long on cable (my view is for what that is worth, therefore probably not a lot).

Good luck all.

Currently short cable @ 83, which I hope will bail me out of EUR/CAD short which I am saying prayers for, given Hilary's comments above. Better not mention EUR/USD short I suppose. If it all goes base-over-apex have stops in for net -34 points, of course if it goes well, I might even break-even!

Whilst concerns over global central bank diversification and the ever widening US trade deficit will continue to weigh on the dollar, the FRB's tightening bias should be supportive to the dollar in the medium term. Some strategists are of the opinion that a rising US rate differential could restrict market willingness to short the dollar and end its weakness.

chocolat,
You could have waited until I'd closed it, I'll blame you if it goes up..:-)

Soz, Stormie - I just crashed :S
Anyway, I'm short cable too from this morning - stops in if it doesn't break lower.

I have faith...........and a positive stop (+20) all now rests on EUR/CAD short, playing to pattern, EUR/USD gone so just waiting for end-game.

End-game played out, net -6 points, cheap evening entertainment, will see what tomorrow brings, good luck everyone!

When I made that Euro comment yesterday morning, I was still bullish on the Euro on the dailies and was looking for a turn on the hourlies for a resumption of the Euro uptrend. Those heavy declines of yesterday gave the dailies a different perspective imo. Any Euro rally today could be short lived.

That said, the Dollar rally might be showing signs of faltering with the USD/CHF and USD/JPY hourlies starting to turn and possibly head lower. That in turn might induce other pairs to follow suit.

FOMC tonight and I think there's a case that 0.25% is now in the price after yesterday's move. We'll see.

edit: One thing's for sure .... I shall not be in the market after 5pm tonight!

hilary just to add to your comments now rumours that the fed statement will contain the word measured so expext some strenght on euro and stg..

Three decent short scalps off cable this morning. Still cautiously short with stops, while I head off to work :S

Blimey - within a few whiskers of being stopped out there - going for the break now :S

FOMC ups rates to 2.75%, signals inflation concern
AFXU


WASHINGTON (AFX) - The Federal Open Market Committee increased its target for overnight interest rates by a quarter percentage point to 2.75 percent Tuesday. The increase in the federal funds rate was expected by traders and economists on Wall Street. The vote was unanimous. The committee once again concluded that its monetary policy stance remains accommodative and that this 'accommodation' could be removed 'at a pace that is likely to be measured.' But the FOMC signaled it was growing worried about inflation, saying it saw signs that inflation pressures have picked up and pricing pressures are more evident. This is a change from the last FOMC statement on Feb. 2 that inflation remained 'well-contained.'

Text of FOMC statement
AFXU


WASHINGTON (AFX) - The Federal Open Market Committee raised its overnight lending target to 2.75 percent on Tuesday. Here's the statement the committee released following the meeting:

The Federal Open Market Committee decided today to raise its target for the federal funds rate by 25 basis points to 2-3/4 percent.

The Committee believes that, even after this action, the stance of monetary policy remains accommodative and, coupled with robust underlying growth in productivity, is providing ongoing support to economic activity. Output evidently continues to grow at a solid pace despite the rise in energy prices, and labor market conditions continue to improve gradually. Though longer-term inflation expectations remain well contained, pressures on inflation have picked up in recent months and pricing power is more evident. The rise in energy prices, however, has not notably fed through to core consumer prices.

The Committee perceives that, with appropriate monetary policy action, the upside and downside risks to the attainment of both sustainable growth and price stability should be kept roughly equal. With underlying inflation expected to be contained, the Committee believes that policy accommodation can be removed at a pace that is likely to be measured. Nonetheless, the Committee will respond to changes in economic prospects as needed to fulfill its obligation to maintain price stability.

Voting for the FOMC monetary policy action were: Alan Greenspan, Chairman; Timothy F. Geithner, Vice Chairman; Ben S. Bernanke; Susan S. Bies; Roger W. Ferguson, Jr.; Edward M. Gramlich; Jack Guynn; Donald L. Kohn; Michael H. Moskow; Mark W. Olson; Anthony M. Santomero; and Gary H. Stern.

In a related action, the Board of Governors unanimously approved a 25-basis-point increase in the discount rate to 3-3/4 percent. In taking this action, the Board approved the requests submitted by the Boards of Directors of the Federal Reserve Banks of Boston, New York, Philadelphia, Cleveland, Richmond, Atlanta, Chicago, St. Louis, Minneapolis, and San Francisco.

Cheers prods.
Closed out at 18808, but waiting to wade in again - I may be wrong on this leg, but Asia hasn't got out of bed yet.