Forex rebates on every trade - win or lose!

Thanks for the nod Hils, will keep a watch

Euro getting hammered at the moment

so did i jm tried to long stg a few times......turned out to be a silly idea..

I am a novice fx interested party.

So take or leave what I report.

Here we go.

As predicted over last week.

Forex - Dollar rallies in anticipation of a new U.S. rate hike - UPDATE 4
AFX


NEW YORK (AFX) -- The dollar shot higher Monday, one day before the Federal Reserve meets to decide on what is widely expected to be another increase in U.S. interest rates.

Additionally, a Hong Kong monetary official's admonition against Asian central banks rushing to build up euro reserves probably helped lift the U.S. currency.

In late trading in North America, the euro was down 1.1 percent to $1.3170 as the British pound lost 1.2 percent to trade at $1.8985.

The dollar traded at 105.10 yen, up 0.4 percent, following a holiday in Japan.

There were no U.S. economic data reports Monday and currency markets spent the session focusing on widespread expectations that the policy-making Federal Open Market Committee will hike rates by a quarter of a percentage point, bringing its target federal funds rate to 2.75 percent.

That would mark the seventh consecutive FOMC meeting in which rates have been increased by this amount.

Mike Malpede, senior currency analyst at Refco, said the euro's losses also were linked to reports quoting Hong Kong's monetary authority chief as suggesting that Asian central banks shouldn't be in a hurry to raise their euro reserves at the expense of the dollar.

The Hong Kong official, Joseph Yam, warned of a danger that the euro could become so popular in Asia that the stability of international finance would be threatened.

Malpede also noted a broad agreement reached by European finance ministers on Sunday to loosen budget spending rules applying to members of the European Union, further pressuring the euro.

The reforms that the ministers proposed making to the EU Stability Pact still need formal approval, but few analysts expect large-scale alterations.

Specifically, the ministers left deficit limits in place but sought to make the system less strict. Germany and France, both of which have broken rules stipulating that budget deficits be kept below 3 percent of gross domestic product, are viewed as the victors.

Sean Callow, chief currency strategist at IdeaGlobal, warned that a more lax fiscal stance could lead to a subjugation of monetary policy, resulting in an increase in money supply and eventually sparking inflation in the long-term.

Michael Woolfolk, Senior Currency Strategist at the Bank of New York, cautioned that the dollar's gains Monday should not be mistaken for a longer-term correction, noting that the dollar remains 'within a relatively well-worn, albeit broad, trading range against the euro right now.'

Focus is on FOMC statement

Because so many analysts assume that a new quarter-point rate hike by the FOMC is a given, currency market participants focused on the statement that will accompany Tuesday's policy decision.

Refco's Malpede said there is increasing speculation that the FOMC in its statement could abandon its stance in favor of small, incremental rate increases and opt for a policy of more aggressive rate hikes.

Exceptionally high commodities prices seen lately, including record prices for crude oil, could convince Fed officials that their stance of taking a 'measured' pace toward rate increases is no longer appropriate, according to the analyst.

Abandoning the 'measured' pace policy would give the monetary officials leeway to order larger rate increases at future meetings.

However, Ashraf Laidi, chief currency analyst at MG Financial Group, said 'We do not think that the Fed will accelerate its rate hikes as we still see Fed funds topping at 3.25 percent by year-end.'

'In the long term, the mere notion of traders expecting faster rate hikes in order to contain inflation rather than stronger growth is a clear negative for the dollar, especially when higher oil is synonymous to higher imports i.e. a deteriorating trade deficit,' Laidi said.

This story was supplied by MarketWatch. For further information see www.marketwatch.com.

I should add that Bloomberg interviewed some guy who knows, who said this would not halt the dollar slide long term.

Never remember names, but he advocated long on cable (my view is for what that is worth, therefore probably not a lot).

Good luck all.

Currently short cable @ 83, which I hope will bail me out of EUR/CAD short which I am saying prayers for, given Hilary's comments above. Better not mention EUR/USD short I suppose. If it all goes base-over-apex have stops in for net -34 points, of course if it goes well, I might even break-even!

Whilst concerns over global central bank diversification and the ever widening US trade deficit will continue to weigh on the dollar, the FRB's tightening bias should be supportive to the dollar in the medium term. Some strategists are of the opinion that a rising US rate differential could restrict market willingness to short the dollar and end its weakness.

chocolat,
You could have waited until I'd closed it, I'll blame you if it goes up..:-)

Soz, Stormie - I just crashed :S
Anyway, I'm short cable too from this morning - stops in if it doesn't break lower.

I have faith...........and a positive stop (+20) all now rests on EUR/CAD short, playing to pattern, EUR/USD gone so just waiting for end-game.

End-game played out, net -6 points, cheap evening entertainment, will see what tomorrow brings, good luck everyone!

When I made that Euro comment yesterday morning, I was still bullish on the Euro on the dailies and was looking for a turn on the hourlies for a resumption of the Euro uptrend. Those heavy declines of yesterday gave the dailies a different perspective imo. Any Euro rally today could be short lived.

That said, the Dollar rally might be showing signs of faltering with the USD/CHF and USD/JPY hourlies starting to turn and possibly head lower. That in turn might induce other pairs to follow suit.

FOMC tonight and I think there's a case that 0.25% is now in the price after yesterday's move. We'll see.

edit: One thing's for sure .... I shall not be in the market after 5pm tonight!

hilary just to add to your comments now rumours that the fed statement will contain the word measured so expext some strenght on euro and stg..

Three decent short scalps off cable this morning. Still cautiously short with stops, while I head off to work :S

Blimey - within a few whiskers of being stopped out there - going for the break now :S

FOMC ups rates to 2.75%, signals inflation concern
AFXU


WASHINGTON (AFX) - The Federal Open Market Committee increased its target for overnight interest rates by a quarter percentage point to 2.75 percent Tuesday. The increase in the federal funds rate was expected by traders and economists on Wall Street. The vote was unanimous. The committee once again concluded that its monetary policy stance remains accommodative and that this 'accommodation' could be removed 'at a pace that is likely to be measured.' But the FOMC signaled it was growing worried about inflation, saying it saw signs that inflation pressures have picked up and pricing pressures are more evident. This is a change from the last FOMC statement on Feb. 2 that inflation remained 'well-contained.'

Text of FOMC statement
AFXU


WASHINGTON (AFX) - The Federal Open Market Committee raised its overnight lending target to 2.75 percent on Tuesday. Here's the statement the committee released following the meeting:

The Federal Open Market Committee decided today to raise its target for the federal funds rate by 25 basis points to 2-3/4 percent.

The Committee believes that, even after this action, the stance of monetary policy remains accommodative and, coupled with robust underlying growth in productivity, is providing ongoing support to economic activity. Output evidently continues to grow at a solid pace despite the rise in energy prices, and labor market conditions continue to improve gradually. Though longer-term inflation expectations remain well contained, pressures on inflation have picked up in recent months and pricing power is more evident. The rise in energy prices, however, has not notably fed through to core consumer prices.

The Committee perceives that, with appropriate monetary policy action, the upside and downside risks to the attainment of both sustainable growth and price stability should be kept roughly equal. With underlying inflation expected to be contained, the Committee believes that policy accommodation can be removed at a pace that is likely to be measured. Nonetheless, the Committee will respond to changes in economic prospects as needed to fulfill its obligation to maintain price stability.

Voting for the FOMC monetary policy action were: Alan Greenspan, Chairman; Timothy F. Geithner, Vice Chairman; Ben S. Bernanke; Susan S. Bies; Roger W. Ferguson, Jr.; Edward M. Gramlich; Jack Guynn; Donald L. Kohn; Michael H. Moskow; Mark W. Olson; Anthony M. Santomero; and Gary H. Stern.

In a related action, the Board of Governors unanimously approved a 25-basis-point increase in the discount rate to 3-3/4 percent. In taking this action, the Board approved the requests submitted by the Boards of Directors of the Federal Reserve Banks of Boston, New York, Philadelphia, Cleveland, Richmond, Atlanta, Chicago, St. Louis, Minneapolis, and San Francisco.

Cheers prods.
Closed out at 18808, but waiting to wade in again - I may be wrong on this leg, but Asia hasn't got out of bed yet.

USD very strong after FOMC, where now?

DAILY PICKS Tuesday, March 22, 2005 21:02 GMT Daily Report By Forex Grand Capitals http://www.ForexGrandCapitals.com   King of spring...?! Mr. Greenspan keeps "measured" in the speech, yet the USD rallies. Whatever. Will hold both existing longs USD/JPY already opened within the last 36 hours, and one more buying bait placed at higher altitude. The USD players now have a direction and an opportunity. If momentum accelerates too, then no more sleeping pills I guess. A successful knock-knock of USD/CHF nearby 1.20 on a weekly chart though remains key.

Mihai Nichisoiu - Chief Trader - Forex Grand Capitals: Forex Signals and Managed Accounts http://www.ForexGrandCapitals.com Email Address: Info@ForexGrandCapitals.com

Forex - Dollar shakes off losses after U.S. rate hike - UPDATE 4
AFX


NEW YORK (AFX) - The dollar threw off losses to trade higher Tuesday, after the Federal Open Market Committee ordered a widely anticipated rate increase and issued a policy statement some viewed as unexpectedly hawkish.

The euro in late afternoon was at $1.3055, down 0.8 percent on the session, as the dollar rose 0.4 percent to 105.66 yen. Before the FOMC announcement the dollar was lower against both currencies.

The FOMC lifted the fed funds target rate by a quarter point to 2.75 percent, as widely expected.

In its latest policy statement, the committee indicated that inflation pressures are mounting. Some observers interpreted the statement about inflation as a signal the central bank could embark on a more aggressive course of rate increases.

'Though longer-term inflationary expectations remain well contained, pressures on inflation have picked up in recent months and pricing power is more evident,' the FOMC said.

'The rise in energy prices, however, has not notably fed through to consumer prices,' the statement continued.

The FOMC also called its monetary policy stance 'accommodative' and said this 'accommodation' could be removed 'at a pace that is likely to be measured.'

Refco Senior Currency Analyst Mike Malpede said the references to inflation initially were viewed as unexpectedly hawkish.

But he cautioned that investors may well come up with alternative views of the statement as they continue to scrutinize its details throughout the week.

'The bottom line is the Fed left the door open for more rate hikes,' Malpede said. 'The Fed indicated that there is inflation risk and the risks could be balanced, if the Fed takes appropriate action.'

Bank of New York Senior Currency Strategist Michael Woolfolk said market players chose to view the references to inflation 'to mean that the Fed is likely to continue raising interest rates higher than expected this year against a backdrop of strong U.S.economic growth.'

Earlier Tuesday the dollar was pressured by news that a surge in energy prices pushed the U.S. producer price index for finished goods up 0.4 percent in February.

Excluding big increases in food and energy prices, the core PPI increased 0.1 percent. Economists were forecasting a 0.3 percent gain in the PPI and 0.1 percent in the core rate.

On Wednesday the market will focus on consumer price data for February. The average estimate of economists polled by MarketWatch is for a 0.3 percent increase in the headline index, alongside a 0.2 percent advance in the core rate.

Existing home sales figures for February also are due Wednesday. MarketWatch forecasts 6.69 million sales.

Overnight in Tokyo, the minutes of the Bank of Japan's Feb. 16-17 policy board meeting were released Tuesday, and showed that board members again discussed reducing the account balance target in light of weak fund demand from banks.

The balance of current account deposits held by private financial institutions at the central bank is its primary tool for keeping lending rates near zero. It is now kept in a range of 30 trillion to 35 trillion yen.

This year, the BOJ's open-market operations have sometimes met with bidding shortfalls. A cut in the target balance to address this would effectively be the first tightening of monetary policy since August 2000 -- but analysts say the Bank of Japan would be careful not to describe it as such to markets.

The point is moot for the time being. The minutes of the latest meeting showed that all members agreed that the liquidity target shouldn't be touched for a while, as the Japanese economy appears to be pausing.

This story was supplied by MarketWatch. For further information see www.marketwatch.com.