cynic
- 20 Oct 2007 12:12
rather than pick out individual stocks to trade, it can often be worthwhile to trade the indices themselves, especially in times of high volatility.
for those so inclined, i attach below charts for FTSE and FTSE 250, though one might equally be tempted to trade Dow or S&P, which is significantly broader in its coverage, or even NASDAQ
for ease of reading, i have attached 1 year and 3 month charts in each instance
spitfire43
- 06 Dec 2007 09:00
- 377 of 21973
In long at 6314 for hopefully a modest gain.........
cynic
- 06 Dec 2007 09:14
- 378 of 21973
i assume you mean 6514 ...... and what do you think will happen if BoE does NOT cut rates? ..... be careful
Toya
- 06 Dec 2007 09:52
- 379 of 21973
Re Interest Rate cut vs no cut:
Excellent article in The Times, by Anatole Kaletsky (who's always worth a read!)
"Midday today is the moment of truth when the MPC will announce whether it has understood these dangers or whether it plans to test the British economy to destruction in pursuit of an academic experiment in laissez-faire central banking."
Full article:
The Bank better get this right
hilary
- 06 Dec 2007 10:05
- 380 of 21973
That article in The Times is all very well, but I think that the BoE are torn between the devil and the deep blue sea.
This is the BoE mandate from their website:
The Bank's Strategy
The Bank's strategic priorities endorsed by Court for 2007/08 are:
To maintain its track record of achieving the inflation target, the Bank should improve the quality and efficiency of the process supporting the Monetary Policy Committee, advance its understanding of the changing nature of the inflation process and contribute to the development of inflation targeting.
Money market operations should ensure stable overnight sterling interest rates and support improved banking system liquidity management, including by providing longer-term finance through, and adopting electronic bidding for, open market operations.
Banking operations should be focused on ensuring monetary and financial stability, thus eliminating activities that do not contribute to those objectives, while also being efficient and resilient, in large part to be achieved by continuing to deliver the objectives of the Customer Banking Transition.
The Bank should ensure that its banknotes are designed and produced in order to maintain a high level of security against counterfeiting, and that the distribution of notes, including the new 20, ensures an efficient circulation that meets the Bank's objectives for quality.
The Bank should draw on its upgraded analytical and market intelligence capabilities to deepen its understanding of the major risks to the UK financial system and work effectively with others to lower them.
The Bank should be fully prepared in its management of financial crises and its business continuity planning, within the Standing Committee framework, and should work with others to strengthen international crisis management preparations.
The Bank should promote safe and efficient payment and settlement systems and be at the forefront of best practice in operational and policy areas.
To deliver these strategic priorities, the Bank will aim for the highest business standards and will continually improve the quality and training of its people and the integrity, controls and efficiency of its systems, processes and financial reporting.
Number 1 item on the list is inflation which they are struggling to control with oil at $100. A cut in interest rates today will simply fuel inflation further and Mervy King will end up having to write a Dear Darling letter in the new year.
For there to be a cut in rates one of two things has got to happen.
Either oil has got to back away substantially from $100. Is that realistic?
Alternatively the Government would have to set a higher, more realistic, inflation target. If they did that it would be construed as an admission that they were wrong in the first place.
If the MPC do succumb to the clamour of calls for a cut, then it can only be a matter of time before they're forced to hike them up again. Imo.
halifax
- 06 Dec 2007 10:10
- 381 of 21973
Dont know what all the fuss is about the official rate of inflation bears no resemblance to reality. Statistics...... lies etc.
spitfire43
- 06 Dec 2007 10:11
- 382 of 21973
Closed at 6522 for 8 points, FTSE jumping around all over the place. Will now sit on sidelines and await the BOE announcement.
Just pleased I maneged to exit before midday.
cynic
- 06 Dec 2007 10:28
- 383 of 21973
a sensible move! ...... from a personal point of view, i would like to see European Central Bank cut rates, as the strong Euro (vs ) does nothing positive for our biz!
cynic
- 06 Dec 2007 11:07
- 384 of 21973
the market seems to have convinced itself that a rate cut is coming, but though that means i have "missed" some extra profit, i am happy that my decision to close out my index positions and also take other money off the table was both correct and prudent.
come 12.30 or 13.00, it will be more apparent how the markets truly interpret BoE's decision, whatever it happens to be
cynic
- 06 Dec 2007 11:22
- 385 of 21973
if there is a cut i may just (perhaps very foolishly!) be enticed into buying back into RTN or DOM, on the basis that there will be a feel-good factor and an encouragement for peeps to start spending on luxuries etc (knee-jerk relief!)
spitfire43
- 06 Dec 2007 11:58
- 386 of 21973
if there isn't a cut I would obviously like to short the FTSE, the only chance I might have would be after the initial fall on any bounce back.
Must admit I would now be very surprised if BOE held rates, even with their heads stuck in the sand.
steveo
- 06 Dec 2007 12:15
- 387 of 21973
well there was and that and the fed decision next week may well be the last hoorah of the bull market for the medium term. I'd expect some profit taking in next 36hours, then a bullish run to fed and then downhill from there.
spitfire43
- 06 Dec 2007 12:21
- 388 of 21973
If I'm feeling brave I could put both a long and short position on FTSE with a 30 point stop/loss at 6540ish and run with the winning position after the BOE announcement. I wonder.......
cynic
- 06 Dec 2007 12:23
- 389 of 21973
rate cut by 0.25% so have opened new longs both Dow and FTSE
steveo
- 06 Dec 2007 12:37
- 390 of 21973
OECD recommended fed don't cut rates again, and hold for up to a year. Fed probably will though, but wouldn't be surprised if it was only 25 points and not the widely muted 50.
Whatever it is in the price now so I generally don't see much upside from here, but I am usually wrong!!!
spitfire43
- 06 Dec 2007 13:17
- 391 of 21973
long FTSE at 6502
spitfire43
- 06 Dec 2007 13:45
- 392 of 21973
closed long at 6472 ouch, I will now write 100 lines. Never go against the trend.
cynic
- 06 Dec 2007 15:05
- 393 of 21973
got shut out of FTSE long at 6475 while out for good lunch ..... serves me right but no big damage
spitfire43
- 06 Dec 2007 17:27
- 394 of 21973
Had a work out and good run to clear my head, and returned to write out some rules which I will stick on my computer when trading.
1. Never go against the trend.
2. Always use stop/loss, never move them when in a losing position.
3. Always stick to my trading plan, and make sure I have a good reason for the trade.
4. When in doubt do now't, there is always another day.
5. There is no rule 5.
6. See rule 1.
7. Always use trailing stop/loss.
Good luck
Toya
- 06 Dec 2007 17:32
- 395 of 21973
I think we could all use those rules, Spitfire!
cynic
- 06 Dec 2007 20:56
- 396 of 21973
ultimately another OK day being long Dow and FTSE, the lunchtime loss being obliterated and a modest profit to boot when positions shut out o'night