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Retail Decisions - The only decision you need to make is when to buy! (RTD)     

overgrowth - 13 May 2005 16:36

Retail Decisions are market leaders in an industry which continues to grow exponentially. They produce payment fraud systems solutions for major blue chip clients globally, though the bulk of the business is currently coming from the major reatilers both in the UK and US. They are a Techmark 100 company which means that there will always be a level of institutional interest in the company. However, on top of this "forced" interest from the tracker funds there has throughout 2005 been sustained large buying from no other than Goldman Sachs and Barclays. These institutions together now have an investment of tens of millions of shares in RTD !

Shares Magazine had a cover feature back in early April entitled "ATOMIC! - Small is about to get VERY, VERY BIG - 7 stocks for the new technology revolution". It was no surprise to see Retail Decisions as part of the selection.

Here's what Shares had to say: "Retail Decisions is a specialist software developer aimed at preventing credit card fraud. It owns a database of several million dodgy credit and debit card numbers against which it crosschecks transactions, but also has developed clever software which can spot strange patterns in your spending. This system is perfect for stopping phony credit card transactions. Investors could not ask for a better pure play on rising credit card crime. Perhaps the company's biggest challenge is scale but chief exec Carl Clump is attempting to address this with aquisitions, even if opportunities seem to be few and far between. In the meantime, Retail Decisions remains concentrated on developing in the card-not-present arena, where it already has fantastic experience and technology. The drive to win new customers should also be helped by the fact that it already serves so many blue-chip customers including Marks & Spencer, T-Mobile and, most recently, Federated Department Stores, the US owner of Macy's and Bloomingdales. Let's not forget, too, the company's highly profitable fuel-card business in Australia which grew 30% last year, making this year's forecast low single-digit earnings growth look on the conservative side."

Retail Decisions have continued throughout 2005 to rake in very healthy profits from the Oz. fuel card business thanks to the "bonus" of high oil prices and favourable exchange rates. In addition, the extra revenue streams from new major US corporate clients will be starting to filter through. In the US, Retail Decisions appear to be chosen on many occasions over their main rival Cybersource which indicates just how well this company is doing. The demand for card-not-present (i.e. internet/phone shopping) fraud software is going to continue to grow and grow so RTD presents guaranteed success in this arena - backed up with the cash cow fuel card business which is being extended into locations other than Australia and we have a real gem of a company. Longer term target 1+.

Chart.aspx?Provider=Intra&Code=RTD&Size=Chart.aspx?Provider=EODIntra&Code=RTD&Si

overgrowth - 14 Oct 2005 17:24 - 383 of 1009

pachandl - RNS just issued on behalf of Goldman Sachs who appear to be topping up with the shares that Barclay's are selling.

Barclays have been trading RTD, particularly in the low 30's so we could well see some different price action now they less to play with.

Fred1new - 14 Oct 2005 18:26 - 384 of 1009

Overgrowth, Ignorance is not bliss. How do you know Barclays has be trading RTD especially in the low 30's? Is that when the dropped their load?

skyhigh - 14 Oct 2005 20:36 - 385 of 1009

Sp has got to get back to 35p beofre you can say it's recovered!
(I got in at 17p over a year ago)

Fred1new - 14 Oct 2005 23:21 - 386 of 1009

Sure but I might have recovered before that figure :-8

Anyway, I "feel" the management is as usual doing the right thing. But like Fundy would like to have been privy to a few of the board meetings over the last few months. I am a long term holder but expected the price to be well adhead of what it is at the moment.

It is sure to wabble a little until the financing of the pruchase is through, but could do very nicely over the next 6-12mths, if you can last that long.

Douggie, you can come off your respirator now. 8-)

Fred1new - 17 Oct 2005 10:09 - 387 of 1009

Extracted from RTD Web site

"Retail Decisions (ReD), the fuel card operator and a world leader in card fraud prevention and payment processing, today announces the proposed acquisition of Fuelserv for 21.5 million in cash from DHL Distribution (part of Deutsche Post Group).
ReD also announces a Placing with institutional and certain other investors to raise approximately 13.3 million net of expenses (together with an Open Offer to Qualifying Shareholders of a further 5.1 million assuming it is taken up in full). The Group also proposes a share consolidation.
Fuelserv is the UKs second largest operator, by fuel volume, in the independent fuel card and bunkering sector with around 6,300 live customer accounts as at the end of 2004 and with more than 65,000 live fuel cards in issue as at 8 September 2005. Due to its size, the acquisition is a Class 1 transaction for ReD as defined by the UK Listing Authority, requiring shareholder approval at an EGM to be held on Friday 4 November 2005. "

Full Report http://www.redplc.com Investors news


Douggie - 17 Oct 2005 11:35 - 388 of 1009

Hi been away for a week

so we know who/what new partner is........don't detect much excitement/anticipation re rising sp...;-/

Fred1new - 21 Oct 2005 16:11 - 389 of 1009

Any views out there? MMS holding the SP up at the moment on little volume.

Douggie - 21 Oct 2005 16:50 - 390 of 1009

?????????????????...wish I knew what to do held up to 37p and
d
o
w
n again ;-/ so ?????????????? suspect I will hold if only as punishment for not sellling as I was suposed to do to pay for new car ..whic at that time would have been free.............was witing for the predicted 40p+ Ha.................

what about you Fred ?

Fred1new - 21 Oct 2005 18:06 - 391 of 1009

IVC suggests it reasonable to take rights offfer, with the thought that they did a similar buy out successfully in Australia.
Would expect the price to drop a penny or so for a week. I still think its overall outlook is good. But hoped and expected that it would be in the early 40s now.

I will take up some and wait 6-8 weeks to see.

Overall RTD has been good to me.

robstuff - 26 Oct 2005 14:25 - 392 of 1009

i'm surprised that the price has not fallen more with the current amount of selling and no-one buying. Any ideas what the Barclays transaction was all about, they seemed to buy and then sell, maybe for someone else, i.e.held in nomines for short while? or a bad investment decision?

Fundamentalist - 26 Oct 2005 15:02 - 393 of 1009

Rob

only a guess but my view would be that they were offered to participate in the fund raising but werent overly impressed by the deal so decided to sell out. They appear to be selling down quite a lot of smaller co equity positions lately so there may be a more general market based strategy behind the decision (ie moving into more blue chip/defensive stocks)

Fundamentalist - 26 Oct 2005 15:03 - 394 of 1009

Also, not at all surprised that the price has been pegged at the open offer price - the institutions buying in at 21p are likely to be keeping the price at or above that certainly in the short term

robstuff - 26 Oct 2005 15:18 - 395 of 1009

thanks - good point.

Flackwell Vialli - 26 Oct 2005 18:45 - 396 of 1009

Fundy - Why would they want to keep the offer at 21p - are you suggesting that they wish to take up o/o shares not taken up by shareholders ?

robstuff - 27 Oct 2005 15:22 - 397 of 1009

I can't see why it's holding, it will fall below the 21 after the issue if not before

capetown - 27 Oct 2005 15:35 - 398 of 1009

I agree,far too many sells for the ps to stay where it is

Fred1new - 31 Oct 2005 12:06 - 399 of 1009

Strange Pricing by MMS.

I think they are holding up the Buy price, but quite happy to suck up any sells.
B/S ratio is in their favour, but also seems they are expecting price to rise once offer is over.

Volumes are very small, I would expect them to rise with the price after EGM.
Could be wrong.

Stan, is suggesting 22/11/2005 for next meeting at the Anchor.

I am happy with that date but not yet sure if I will be away or not.

Shall we say yes and see.


Douggie - 04 Nov 2005 12:56 - 400 of 1009

Today........so far ............ :o)

skyhigh - 04 Nov 2005 13:21 - 401 of 1009

Yep... looking better... perhaps it's now passed it's dodgy phase and the sp can now recover towards it's high...40p by new yr ?

Douggie - 10 Nov 2005 10:13 - 402 of 1009

:o))
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