rather than pick out individual stocks to trade, it can often be worthwhile to trade the indices themselves, especially in times of high volatility.

for those so inclined, i attach below charts for FTSE and FTSE 250, though one might equally be tempted to trade Dow or S&P, which is significantly broader in its coverage, or even NASDAQ

for ease of reading, i have attached 1 year and 3 month charts in each instance

Falc,

Interesting indeed.

I've always used the S&P 500 as my marker. I have never understood how an index of only thirty stocks could be a measure of the US stock market. Your post makes it even more irrational.

But I suppose that if computer driven trading on individual stocks is partially driven by movement of the Dow (sell/buy Ministock Inc when the Dow hits x) you cannot ignore it.

TP

Strange that something so irrational should be the chauffeur of the world markets!

Could someone explain why WOS current sp around 186p, has been downgraded to neutral by broker UBS, with a halved target price of 300p. Surely there is plenty of upside from current levels (If UBS are serious about a 300p target) to warrant a buy, or at least an add. I see this quite often from brokers where their recommendation seem to be at odds with their sp target. I don't hold these.
2517

Part of wos problem according to papers is having debt in euros

Closed long dax /short ftse for 250 points

Well market did bounce but failed to get through level of 4300, as I seem to be getting it right for once I'm gonna stick my neck out and say that we won't get and stay above that level for more than a few days again until the end of the year (Dec) .

I expect that the data will continue to disappoint, the banks recent and spectacular run will fade back to previous levels as the losses from the recession continue to hit home worse than expected, I wouldn't be surprised to see banks back at their lows at the next reporting 1/4, good chance they'll be lower.

Rights issues at miners and continuing lack of lending coupled with peoples reluctance to spend as deflation becomes the theme and continuing falls in property by as much as 20% this year will out weigh the fiscal stimulus packages for the next 1/4, we might get a bottom shortly after that if inflation starts to hint at returning, which with the weak pound shouldn't be too far away as the cost of imports holds or increases in sterling terms.

Only my opinion, probably wrong but sentiment is worsening and even people who had little economic knowledge are now talking about it routinely. (myself included you might add!!).

Still haven't hit the point of capitulation, my moneys in Gold and junior gold minors, HGM, CEY , a little in Afren, also BP and RRS. looking to get into ashtead if it drops to 35p.

AHT gone ex-divi on the 28th, so logically a drop likely, though sometimes it is priced in before the date.
Do I dare say that the worst seems over, with no nasty surprises on the horizon?
Lots of stocks seem to be trending upwards, particularly those with strong balance sheet & an assured dividend.

HC
i dont see lots of stocks trending upwards. i suppose it depends on what we consider or take as our criteria for trending, along with our time horizon.as for an assured dividend that must also be questionable in current conditions.
you could be calling the bottom with your view and maybe you are right. i dont see it just yet or for quite a while yet. i still think we have a few surprises to come along with divi cuts. thats just my opinion at the moment and i could be wrong.
anyway whats the point of an assured dividend if our capital is halved, or worse?
perhaps for some it depends on how long we have been invested in the market.
how many have seen both? i.e. capital decimated and divis cut.
i do agree with your point about having a strong balance sheet particularly for new investments or new money into the market. personally i cant see further than my nose at present, lol.
never too low to sell and bottom picking can damage your ealth. civil unrest starting to manifest itself. no arthurs around anymore to fuel the flames, so that wont help us bears. anyway i just do my best to follow the trend.
it dont matter what i think,the market will do what it will do. thats why i try to be a follower. it rarely does what i want it to anyway. currently i want it to go up so i can sell some more from a higher level on the way down.
all just my opinion.
regards
jkd

Civil unrest and protectionism have to be major possible issues in the next 12 months. Will governments have the nuance to look at the bigger picture or will they screw that up as well.

For a look at how the bottom of the market can be called wrong just look at Japan, over the last 18 months the experts have got its recovery wrong time and time again, there are still lots of downgrades to come, it will take alot longer than 16 months for this to blow over, I'd say we are at the end of the begining and certainly not at the begining of the end of this bear market.

Consumer credit lines will tighten, defaults will increase, spending still has some way to decline, unless savers think might as well spend it as rates so low, can't really see that being a possibilty though with inflation likely to return in earnest at some point they'd do better to hoard it and benefit from rising rates, whether they'd be better overall is another matter.

So return of inflation may boost stocks but it's still a long way from being clear if we'll get that anytime soon. So imho we are not at the bottom yet, the trading range seems to be getting tighter although it is still too early to be sure of that, we are going to see it go one way or the other my moneys on it being down, breaking support and then we might see a capitulation, possibly before September

Assuming the market anticipates improvement 6 months ahead. That's taking the ftse 100 into account, how the UK housing market deterioration factors into the 250's fate is anyones guess!!!

Or they could drop to further support and then finally capitulate so I'm out of going long on the market as a whole for now.

S
reading our 2 posts along with all the newspaper headlines im seriously wondering if were near a bottom. im ready for it, my stop losses are in. im also getting ready for a further sell mode. it wont happen overnight,the bottom that is, so im trying to be patient.
regards
jkd

Building Societies todays calling for the BOE not to reduce interest rates any further. A good call I think, Sterling isn't a reserve currency like the USD so doesn't have the demand. Wednesday - Thursday will be important days as the FTSE I think has priced in a further cut. If this doesn't happen Sterling will stage a recovery. Surely government must now look after Sterling to prevent national debt escalating further. How many banks are able to pass on additional cuts, so what use is a further cut within the economy? So called toxic debt is preventing the banking system from lending and will do so until either its fully/partially written down or bought/insured against default. Increased levels of quantitive measures are required I think rather then additional base rate cuts.

will recover when and $ are perceived to being on shaky ground themselves .... has already dropped about 7% against in the last week as the message very slowly gets across that Euroland is in very deep poo! .... not news to me, i must say

The Market calls for the ECB to cut but Trichet has already signalled that MPC won't till March. I'd expect further quantitive measures to be announced targeting manufacturing for Feb and a review of MPC come March. Interestingly I don't think the very small EUR or USD recoveries have even scratched at the surface, more of an attempt to consolidate within the fall.

The UK government have been content to see fall so far, but the euro is seen as too strong now, and ECB was far too slow to react to slowdown. They even raised rates as recently as last summer (total madness) imagine the UK economy now if we were in the euro. Thinking about it you don't have to imagine it, just look at Spain.

Re: protectionism, this is worth a read

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/comment/ambroseevans_pritchard/4412497/In-Davos-protectionism-is-a-dirty-word.html

Surely these guys have learnt from the mistakes of the last depression, oh silly me of course not.

Barrack has his first big test coming up, for all our sakes lets hope he can convince capitol hill to see the bigger picture!!

Banks on their way down as predicted...gold easing today, wait another couple of days for a good entry after the last rally, once euro rates come down there's only quantative easing ie weak currencies ie strong gold.

DOW
will 7900 now be breached?
from what i have read, this seems to be very likely, and if so, the next strong support is some 700/800 lower

Think there is very strong support going back years at 7450 - also where we bounced very strongly back in November...

pefectly happy to take a profit at that level!

Once we get there (FTSE/DOW lows) it should tell us if there's really money waiting on the sidelines to be invested. My guess. There isn't!

Strawbs.

and how will we know the lows have been hit? ..... unlikely to be a large sign there telling us so!