How would you like to trade a market where you get large regular price swings every 10 minutes in the afternoon, seven days a week. A
market where all prices are set purely by supply and demand, few transaction costs, no middle men and you only pay commission if you win? Where you can freely act as a market maker and where you have direct market access and where you can create a spread for others to take?

Betfair has revolutionised the betting market and created an open platform for exchanging risk on sports events. This market is now viewed much more like a traditional financial risk market than an old fashioned betting market. Smart users have realised that there are huge opportunities on Betfair because they can buy and sell risk in much the same way they would in a normal financial market but without the burden of cost or the restricted access that is usually associated with traditional financial markets.

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I analysed (no surprise there) the FTSE auction moves for about a year and wrote a spreadsheet to predict the range and percentage move likely from the auction. Used to be a killing ground on Betfair but now the market is much more effecient. For ages people used to bet on the close on the basis that it ended at 16:30. Lots of posts about, "When will they settle", then, "Whats an auction". Very funny, but not for those that had drifted into the market "for a punt."

Amazing afternoon on the horses, Four 1.01 shots overturned this afternoon already. Amazing stuff. Having a good day anyhow but this has made my Christmas.

Today was a good day Scrip. Yesterday was a nightmare.

Quite fancy the Real Madrid v Sevilla game tonight.

I agree today was excellent. Nothing really happened for me yesterday either. Just had a nose at the match, it does look interesting.

Family is Ill again we have had six weeks of constant illness and not just the normal sniffle either. Hopefully Christmas will see an end to it. But that will probably stop me being on the match this evening.

A prediction, If the match is 0-0 at half time I reckon the Draw odds will be around 3.05

Just wonder if my adage of not going for foreign teams is going to play out here again tonight. Found some time to work on some other stuff but not on the match just watching.

Real were dreadful! 10's for Sevilla was probably a good price only being just below Real who are out of sorts. Their season looks like a write off! Ah, the benefit of hindsight.

Scrip,

After doing more research I decided against it. But I did take advantage of getting in and out several times on Sevilla towards the end and did very nicely. Not a big stake just in case but a nice return.

Well done, it was the right decision. I looked through my records and noted that they were a similar price when then played Leverkusen recently and messed that up too!!

Not a team to be trusted with anybody's money at the moment let alone my own!

Scrip

Re Yesterday's horse racing, have you looked at the thread on how much people won/lost? 'Frog' claims to have won nearly 19k, I know anyone can claim anything and post how they did it retrospectively, but I guess this was quite possible with yesterday's results

Yawn, betfair still haven't settled the 9am market and opened the 10am. Odds on everyone being on holiday apart from the office junior who doesn't know the password to get into Bloomberg 1.1, odds on the market never opening 1.15, odds on none of the remaining markets opening today evens.

I thint most people are taking the day off. No horse racing today so activity will be low on Betfair.

ilanderton

Without knowing his risk captial and strategy, difficult to say. With some really big favourties losing and lots of 1.01's turned over it's likley many people had a very good day yesterday.

aha. 9-10 never opened but the 10-11 has just opened.

No rest for the wicked? I'm taking time out now till the new year. Will be working on some new data though so not all rest but I find fiddling with spreadsheets quite relaxing.

Have a good Christmas Scrip. Speak to you in the New Year.

pericles, send me your email address or enable your moneyam mail ("user settings") or I can't reply!

Kayak, enabled, P.

Scrip/Harlosh et al

Just to prove that the 2 tactics - gambling and trading - can be combined - I backed Rooster Booster (as a bet) at 4.7 - however in running 1.7 was too good a trade to turn down - hence i greened up and then watched harchibald catch it from 25lengths back.

Trying to gamble today (i still dont have the broadband back so trading is too risky) but just cant resist the odd trade - Lord Transcend in the 1.15 was too good to miss and i layed at 2.0 and greened up at 2.44 - nice!!!

Also made a few quid on the cricket this am


hope you are all having a good day