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How to profit from Betting Exchanges (BEX)     

Scripophilist - 27 Oct 2004 23:40


ladder.gifBA_Logo.gif


How would you like to trade a market where you get large regular price swings every 10 minutes in the afternoon, seven days a week. A
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Betfair has revolutionised the betting market and created an open platform for exchanging risk on sports events. This market is now viewed much more like a traditional financial risk market than an old fashioned betting market. Smart users have realised that there are huge opportunities on Betfair because they can buy and sell risk in much the same way they would in a normal financial market but without the burden of cost or the restricted access that is usually associated with traditional financial markets.

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Dil - 02 Jul 2005 19:37 - 3870 of 10502

Seems fair to me , stood to lose a packet if England won and win a shedload if the Aussies won , neither happened.

I can see people being peed off if they had greened up but the only real alternative is to introduce odds for the tie.

Scripophilist - 02 Jul 2005 20:23 - 3871 of 10502

They introduced the tie market because of the fuss ties have always created. They even emailed the top cricket traders to ask for their views. So IMO they have done as much as they could. Happened plenty of times before.

Scripophilist - 02 Jul 2005 20:24 - 3872 of 10502

I was on the womans final at Wimbledon and didn't have a bad day.

Fundamentalist - 02 Jul 2005 20:53 - 3873 of 10502

Scrip

have to say i disagree with you - if the tie is a potential result then it should be in the match odds market rather than in a side market - it is in almost every other market (including test match cricket where the draw is in the match odds market).

Imagine trading the football where the match odds page only has say Arsenal and Southampton and then you have a separate market for whether the game is a draw or not

Scripophilist - 02 Jul 2005 21:29 - 3874 of 10502

I think the original rationale was that it was such a rare event it wasn't worth cluttering the market with a pretty much unused selection.

Fundamentalist - 02 Jul 2005 21:32 - 3875 of 10502

i think a lot of that would have been down to most one day matches were only ties if the side batting second were all out with the scores level. Nowadays more games are ties irrelevant of the number of wickets lost so are happening more

Kayak - 02 Jul 2005 23:02 - 3876 of 10502

Also backed Maxwell at 4.5 for eviction. I doubt he'll be evicted but assuming there are only two people nominated for eviction, the other's equivalent odds would be 1.28 and it is unlikely that even Craig would trade so low immediately, enabling me to close at a profit once the nominations are announced. Doesn't work if there are three people nominated of course, or if Maxwell isn't one of them :-)

Not sure about Science. He is extremely annoying, but people realise he often has a valid point underneath the aggression. There are bigger fish to fry at the moment. I think he may well survive to the final four.

bakko - 03 Jul 2005 10:37 - 3877 of 10502

edit... screwed up post and will redo.

bakko - 03 Jul 2005 10:58 - 3878 of 10502

With the men's final on today I 've been trying to find a value bet.

It's been interesting to see from the player's stats that Federer has served 70 aces over 6 rounds giving an average of 11.67 per match. Roddick serving 97 and averaging 16.17. Bearing in mind that Roddick may well lose and won't have the full 3 sets to serve out his potential aces I still think he will make more aces than Federer.

Current odds for most aces are Roddick @1.64 ( already shortened from 1.71 when I grabbed a chunk 10 mins ago) and Federer @ 2.4

Kayak - 03 Jul 2005 11:10 - 3879 of 10502

Well what a difference a day makes in the Big Brother house. Major orgy last night in the jacuzzi. It was pretty obvious that it was going to be Max and Craig this week, but now? Double standards should ensure that women are blamed for the orgy, and that would be Makosi and Orlaith... hmmmm...

Harlosh - 04 Jul 2005 11:38 - 3880 of 10502

Morning everyone,

Went to the Lakes last week but was forced to come home early and spent the last week in hospital with a very painful and severe infection of the skin called cellulitis. God only knows where I got it from but I hope I never get it again.

Missed all of Wimbledon as a result so hoping to get some trading in this week. Trouble is it is still quite painful for me to sit at the PC. Will keep taking the antibiotics and hope things improve as the week goes on.

Speak to you later.

Scripophilist - 04 Jul 2005 11:42 - 3881 of 10502

Sorry to hear about the skin condition sounds dreadful. Have a good week that'll help cure it.

bakko - 04 Jul 2005 12:08 - 3882 of 10502

Harlosh,

Sorry to hear of your recent illness. Hope you make a speedy recovery. As soon as you're better we'll have to arrange an evening out again. Just post up dates as soon as you're ready cos Steve and I are fairly flexible.

Fundamentalist - 04 Jul 2005 12:15 - 3883 of 10502

John

sorry to hear about your condition - wish you a speedy recovery.

when youre feeling better give me a shout and we'll sort out a day for you to come over and trade and also arrange the night out with Bak

Fundamentalist - 04 Jul 2005 12:30 - 3884 of 10502

Cant access betfair this afternoon - anyone else got probs?

bakko - 04 Jul 2005 12:43 - 3885 of 10502

Looks ok here although not trading.

With Wimbledon finished I can't find any decent opportunities!

stuartreece - 04 Jul 2005 13:51 - 3886 of 10502

Harlosh sorry to read about your ailment - I have a friend who gets the same thing from time to time and usually ends up in hospital with it, hope you don't get a reoccurance.

Harlosh - 04 Jul 2005 14:44 - 3887 of 10502

Thanks everyone for your concern.

Steve/Bakko, as soon as I'm fit I'll let you know and we can arrange the night out.

stuartreece, that's scary. I thought it would be a one off. I hope for my sake it it is. Very unpleaseant.

Kayak - 04 Jul 2005 17:25 - 3888 of 10502

Hope you get well soon Harlosh.

Sudden price movements in eviction odds would indicate Craig, Maxwell, and Science all up for eviction.

sealed - 04 Jul 2005 17:38 - 3889 of 10502

Virgin Radio: Anthony, Craig, Derek, Maxwell up for eviction
UNCONFIRMED - Virgin Radio are claiming to know today's nomination results. They claim that the rest of Team Smug and Derek face the public vote this week.

This is unconfirmed, although some might argue probable.

The only way to find out the truth is to watch BBLB tonight on Channel 4.
04 Jul 2005 by BBuk
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