BP dissapointed private investors as the share price slid even though a
Massive 136 percent jump in profits were recorded for the last quarter.
This was already expected and comments from Lord Browne saying falls in oil expected have brought also helped the stock down.
He says can stand oil price even below $16 pb
The hostage situation in Nigeria getting bad maybe BP putting on some weight today?
Locals want enviroment cleaned up and profits shared.
Any chance?

I can't believe BP share is only 452p, given the news. Many short positions have to be closed before it settles down at much higher prices. US has not opened yet!!!

Wait til the yanks open.

Merrill Lynch note:
Press reports suggested that Rosneft is in advanced talks to acquire a 50pct stake in TNK-BP from BP's JV partner, AAR for US$28bn. This compares to the $22bn that we use for our valuation of BP's 50% stake. Marking to market, would imply an extra $6bn of value for BP, or about 5% on yesterday's market cap before the news broke. The 3% rally in the shares therefore looks justifiable.To recap, BP stated earlier this year that it was willing to sell its stake in TNK as its relationship with partner AAR had essentially broken down. The way this seems increasingly likely to play out is that BP will stay, but Rosneft will buy out BP's partner, AAR. This is a very good outcome for BP in our view.
1. TNK-BP could once again become a growth asset by improving operational management and opening up opportunities in the Russian arctic.
2. It would remove the potential dilution in BP earnings which we previously suggested could have been 5-10%. One uncertainty is how Rosneft would fund the deal. Rating agencies yesterday commented that Rosneft had about $15bn of debt capacity. We think TNK could pay a large dividend to shrink the company and also provide BP with cash which it could in turn use to buy treasury shares in Rosneft, giving it about a 10%
holding.
So overall, we believe the TNK saga is working towards a very favourable outcome for BP. We reiterate our Buy rating. BP trades on 6.8x 2013E PE, versus a sector on roughly 8x. We think the improving momentum in BP's underlying operations and resolution of the DOJ case regarding Macondo should help close the multiple gap between BP and the sector."

Wow, the difference between 6.8xE to 8xE, is about 20%, representing share price of 540p, much higher than current price of 451.

Long way to go.

TNK-BP manager arrested on suspicion of fraud in Russia

MOSCOW | Fri Oct 19, 2012 9:05am BST
(Reuters) - A government relations manager at Anglo-Russian oil firm TNK-BP has been arrested on suspicion of fraud, the Russian Interior Ministry and the company said on Friday.

The arrest of Igor Korneyev, who TNK-BP said had worked at the company for three months, comes after state-controlled oil major Rosneft made offers totalling over $50 billion (31 billion pounds) to take over Russia's No.3 oil firm.

TNK-BP is a 50-50 joint venture founded in 2003 between Britain's BP and a quartet of Soviet-born billionaires.

StockMarketWire.com
BP has confirmed that the 90-day period for the sale of its 50% stake in TNK-BP to Rosneft has concluded. BP says it will make an announcement if and when it reaches any agreement .

BP to sell TNK-BP stake to Rosneft

BP’s board has approved a $27bn deal with the Russian state oil company Rosneft to sell its stake in TNK-BP which should seal the UK energy group’s future in Russia for decades to come.

The deal means BP will swap its troublesome partnership with a group of Russian oligarchs for an alliance with arguably Russia’s most powerful company – the Kremlin-backed national energy champion.

The board gave BP’s executive team “strong support” to reach a deal that would see the UK group sell Rosneft its 50 per cent stake in TNK-BP for a mixture of cash and shares, according to a person familiar with the matter. An announcement is expected as early as Monday morning.


The Moscow Times take on it :- As Rosneft Privatization Looms, TNK-BP Fate Could Be Clear This Week

A takeover of TNK-BP in its entirety would mean that Rosneft controls about half of the Russian oil industry.
The board of directors of British oil company BP has approved a deal to swap its holding in TNK-BP for a big stake in Rosneft and cash, the Associated Press reported Sunday, citing an unidentified person familiar with the matter.

The deal would give BP a stake of between 16 and 20 percent in the Russian energy firm, sources familiar with the situation said, Reuters reported.

The deal can be described as having two steps for a single transaction worth in excess of $25 billion, according to one source familiar with a proposal put to BP by Rosneft last week, Reuters reported Sunday.

BP statement re TNK-BP

BP confirms it is in advanced discussions with Rosneft regarding the sale of its 50% interest in TNK-BP. No agreement has yet been reached. A further announcement will be made if and when an agreement is reached.

BP. is falling despite the news!!

.

UBS comment:
The current market value of the 12.5% stake in Rosneft is US$9.3bn, so the 50% stake in TNK-BP is valued at US$26.3bn. Therefore, the implied valuation of TNK-BP Holding is cUS$46bn, suggesting a 15% premium to the market. We highlight that in order to service the debt expected to be raised for the acquisitions, Rosneft will be interested in a dividend stream from TNK-BP, so traded TNK-BP Holding will likely remain an attractive dividend story. The impact on Rosneft’s 2013E EPS, on our estimates, would be positive. To finance the deal, Rosneft will likely borrow US$17bn, bringing its net debt to EBITDA to 1.6x, an acceptable level, in our view. Later, however, Rosneft would likely buy out Alfa-Access-Renova, so it will need more debt. Further leveraging may increase investor concern, we think.
All in all, we believe the news was largely expected by the market, so we do not anticipate any pronounced reaction in share prices.

BP AGREEMENT WITH ROSNEFT RE TNK-BP

· Payment by Rosneft to be a mix of $17.1 billion in cash, and shares representing 12.84 per cent of Rosneft

· BP intends to use $4.8 billion of the cash consideration to purchase a further 5.66 per cent of Rosneft from the Russian government

· On completion of the proposed transaction, BP expects to hold 19.75 per cent of Rosneft shares, including BP's existing holding of 1.25 per cent, and to have received $12.3 billion in cash

Fluctuating between 459 to 442. Given the news, it should move above 500p IMO.
During the spill period, it was moving down 5p per 1bln loss. Now 27bln cash is being ignored!

Rosneft to buy BP out of TNK-BP first - source

MOSCOW | Mon Oct 29, 2012 12:40pm GMT

(Reuters) - Giant BP is set to exit its stake in the TNK-BP joint venture ahead of the AAR consortium of tycoons, when they sell out to state-controlled Rosneft, a source close to Rosneft told Reuters on Monday.

BP has struck a deal to sell its stake in the joint venture, Russia's third-largest crude producer, after a nine-year partnership with the consortium of Soviet-born billionaires known as AAR.

Under the deal Rosneft will pay $27 billion (16 billion pounds) in cash and stock for BP's stake, giving the British company a share of around 20 percent in the state-owned oil giant.

3rd Quarter Results


· BP's third-quarter replacement cost (RC) profit was $4,687 million, compared with $5,276 million a year ago. After adjusting for a net loss from non-operating items of $321 million and net unfavourable fair value accounting effects of $162 million (both on a post-tax basis), underlying RC profit for the third quarter was $5,170 million, compared with $5,463 million for the same period last year. For the nine months, RC profit was $9,854 million, compared with $16,294 million a year ago. After adjusting for a net loss from non-operating items of $3,475 million and net unfavourable fair value accounting effects of $325 million (both on a post-tax basis), underlying RC profit for the nine months was $13,654 million, compared with $16,672 million for the same period last year. RC profit or loss for the group, underlying RC profit or loss and fair value accounting effects are non-GAAP measures and further information is provided on pages 4, 19 and 21.

· The group income statement included a net adverse impact relating to the Gulf of Mexico oil spill, on a pre-tax basis, of $59 million for the third quarter and $882 million for the nine months. All amounts relating to the Gulf of Mexico oil spill have been treated as non-operating items. For further information on the Gulf of Mexico oil spill and its consequences see pages 2 - 3, Note 2 on pages 23 - 28 and Legal proceedings on pages 32 - 40.

· Finance costs and net finance income or expense relating to pensions and other post-retirement benefits were $198 million for the third quarter, compared with $234 million for the same period last year. For the nine months, the respective amounts were $640 million and $722 million.

· Including the impact of the Gulf of Mexico oil spill, net cash provided by operating activities for the third quarter and nine months was $6.3 billion and $14.1 billion respectively, compared with $6.9 billion and $17.1 billion in the same periods of last year. Excluding amounts related to the Gulf of Mexico oil spill, net cash provided by operating activities for the third quarter and nine months was $6.4 billion and $17.1 billion respectively, compared with $7.8 billion and $22.8 billion for the same periods of last year. Reflecting our proposed transaction with Rosneft, we remain confident in delivering more than 50% growth in net cash provided by operating activities by 2014(d) assuming an oil price of $100 per barrel.

BP REPORTS STRONG THIRD QUARTER RESULTS,
RAISES DIVIDEND

• Underlying 3Q 2012 replacement cost profit $5.2 billion; a 40 per cent increase on previous quarter.

• Increases quarterly dividend by 12.5 per cent, to 9c a share, payable in 4Q 2012.

• On track for delivery of strategic 10-point plan to 2014.

• Plans to deliver long-term free cash flow growth; focusing and de-risking the portfolio and increasing investment in upstream.

Ex-divi 7th Nov 2012

Opened up 13.5p

it will easily rise to 470p, the levels it reached when Rosnaft agreement was announced last week.

The board is doing great job, IMO.

ahoj - the high was 459.35p

So close to getting in yesterday, I need one of your kicking arxe cartoons skinny. In this morn and holding long term @ 441.8.