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The Forex Thread (FX)     

hilary - 31 Dec 2003 13:00

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Forex rebates on every trade - win or lose!

hilary - 12 Feb 2004 07:33 - 394 of 11056

Derek,

I'd be happy to see UK interest rates up at around 7% to cool off the housing market, allowing 1st time buyers into the market and curbing consumer debt. Higher rates would also lead to a bit of inflation which could ultimately prove good for the bottom line of many businesses.

If the Yanks and the Nips are stupid enough to bust their own economies through building massive debt mountains, it'll be their own problem when it falls down on top of them.

MightyMicro - 12 Feb 2004 16:36 - 395 of 11056

Hil,

I'd agree with you if I thought that interest rates were totally responsible for house price inflation -- and I'm not certain. It's a factor, for sure, but many local authorities are taking 18 months and more to approve new planning permission - there is a real old fashioned supply and demand problem too.

I still don't think MLR has a lot to do with consumer debt -- it's disconnected by credit cards which set rates largely unrelated to MLR. Let's face it, if MLR is 4% and a store card is 29% (or even 10%), even a 1% MLR rise has little impact on the already usurous rates.

The problem is easy credit. Wanna try regulating it?

Cheers

D.

hilary - 12 Feb 2004 16:54 - 396 of 11056

Yes, but isn't credit only easy because it's cheap and the finance companies know the risk of a bad debt is slim? Wait until interest rates start pushing up and see how easy credit is then.

Beeblebrox - 13 Feb 2004 10:05 - 397 of 11056

mm; i'm with you - 1% usa, 2% euro, and we need 4%. think it shows a lack of ability with our politicians,
oh, and long cable 189.14, stop in 188.80

hilary - 13 Feb 2004 11:15 - 398 of 11056

Beebs,

I think that the lack of ability lies with the mindless herd who have been sucked into the bubble created by those politicians. Bush doesn't give a stuff about interest rates past November 2004. Why November 2004? Because that's when he's looking to start his 2nd term in office.

and /$ crosses rangebound ahead of 1:30 data and the long US weekend. They look like they want to push higher though and I'm staying long both for now.

Beeblebrox - 13 Feb 2004 11:26 - 399 of 11056

tks for that hils - dont think bush will have such an easy ride as clinton did,
we have a clinton on here dont we ?
wonder if he knows any monicas ...........

MightyMicro - 13 Feb 2004 11:51 - 400 of 11056

Beebs: I was amazed to read Roger Bootle's comments in the Sunday Torygraph biznews. He said 4% or more was right and the MPC were jolly good chaps, but those Eurozone wallahs better cut their 2% rate sharpish. Eh? Does that mean we're ready to enter the single currency then :))

Spaceman - 13 Feb 2004 12:13 - 401 of 11056

Sorry to but in with this question but some of you might have some ideas. Some friends of mine are moving to Australia in June and they have about 20-30000 to transfer over there. Does anyone know the best way of doing this? I assume they should get much better than the tourist rate for such an amount?

Thanks.

dclinton - 13 Feb 2004 12:17 - 402 of 11056

I've never known any Monicas. Honest, guv.

Been working up a position on Cable since Tuesday. Now long at an average price of 1.8775, stops at 1.8875.

President's day on Monday (such fine people need a day to be celebrated on) so I guess the US leg of the currency markets will be closed. I'm hoping for a little push up to finish over 1.8950 to keep the momentum up today.

zarif - 13 Feb 2004 12:19 - 403 of 11056

Spaceman:
Just an idea if u like - Why dont they open a multicurrency account -and they can keep switching as to what is appropriate and what rates are beneficial.I think Flemings do one and so do gerrards.

rgds
zarif

hilary - 13 Feb 2004 12:55 - 404 of 11056

Bear Stearns strategist saying he doesn't expect a 1:30 spike today. Personally, I think that if some of the players are out of the market for the long weekend it could get choppy on light volume.

hilary - 13 Feb 2004 13:39 - 405 of 11056

Yabadabadooooooooooooooooooooooooo!!!!!!

:o)))

dclinton - 13 Feb 2004 13:40 - 406 of 11056

Who listens to strategists, eh :-)

hilary - 13 Feb 2004 13:51 - 407 of 11056

The big boys look like they might be taking their money off the table following the spike, so I've joined them. It'll still be here next week.

BrianTrayda - 13 Feb 2004 14:44 - 408 of 11056

Just heard a serious forecast for at $2.09 for year-end. Short-term dip and then back up.... what with the Jap printing presses running red-hot this is all getting to look a tad daft..

Beeblebrox - 13 Feb 2004 15:07 - 409 of 11056

BT; I was expecting to take out the big fig (190) today with all the poor figs,
but looks like we'll have to wait till next week.
2.09 eh, I remember when I first started as a forex broker it was 2.83 - showing my age now.

hilary - 13 Feb 2004 15:13 - 410 of 11056

Sshhhhhhhhhh Beebs. You'll have SAGA ringing you up next.

:o)

MightyMicro - 13 Feb 2004 15:21 - 411 of 11056

Hil: That's nothing, I've just applied for my Senior Railcard. One third off my 1st return to the City. I filled up the application with the free pen that Saga sent me.

BTW, I liked your 1.30 spike. But I bet the Bear Stearns strategist makes more than the pair of us put together, useless sod that he/she is.

MM

Gianni - 13 Feb 2004 15:53 - 412 of 11056

Just noticed Snow says rates to rise if deficit persists. Careful out there.

hilary - 13 Feb 2004 15:55 - 413 of 11056

John,

He's already moved it 100+ pips in an hour. Wish I'd reversed when I closed.

edit: It's bouncing on the support line of the 5 day uptrend now.
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