Forex rebates on every trade - win or lose!

Gave back some of my hard earned gains with a dodgy overnight short on cable, but still finished the week on the plus side....must be a first, wish it would become a trend...lol

Hil: Now, this weekend, are you going to mind the store or is the FX Fairy going to have to brandish his magic wand? Will this depend on the Blues performance against the Fake Pharoah's mob?

D :))

The shop window in the store has been re-dressed already, MM.

Btw, it's not the Fake Pharoah that I'm bothered about (although mos's mob could help us out on Monday night) ...... I'm more excited about the Mickey Mousers next week. C'mon you Blues.

:o)

hils be glad to............ hurts me to say it but i like chelsea,soft spot played decent football,and we cud even get into europe ourselves plus got a soft spot for mr lampard when i was in the city prob wud of been 1997 mark redknapp,jamies bro used to work with us and on our thursday night piss ups young frankie and young rio used to come out and join us as they where only westham youth players and where skint so we took them under our wing...
how times have changed....lol ........

Hil: And a very nicely arranged shop window it is. I shall make sure the FX Fairy tucks his wand away and preserves its powers for some possible future occasion.

With the Driving Season round the corner, news like this should start to squeeze the Dollar. I wouldn't be surprised to see it finally break through the $2 barrier this summer.

LONDON (Reuters) - Oil made fresh gains on Monday as refinery glitches in the United States kept the market edgy about a possible squeeze on gasoline supplies this summer.

U.S. light crude (CLc1: Quote, Profile, Research) hit a session high of $56 a barrel, before easing to $55.75, up 36 cents and adding to a hefty gain of $1.19, or 2.2 percent, on Friday.

London Brent crude (LCOc1: Quote, Profile, Research) was up 33 cents to $55.30 a barrel, after hitting a session high of $55.70.

Crude oil prices have rallied for five straight sessions, notching up gains of more than $4 and within striking distance of the all-time high of $58.28 set at the start of the April as speculative funds surge back into the market.

Traders have grown increasingly anxious about U.S. gasoline supplies ahead of the summer driving season. A spate of refinery problems has raised fears that plants -- already operating near capacity -- may struggle to sate rising demand.

Gasoline futures were trading up 0.77 cents to $1.66 a gallon, around 11 percent above levels one week ago.

Traders said a gasoline-making unit at a ConocoPhillips' (COP.N: Quote, Profile, Research) refinery in Louisiana would be down for another week after failing to restart following maintenance, compounding other refinery problems in Texas and Kansas.

MM,

May I pick your technical brains please?

I've recently been using the FX Power Charts. Their main attraction is that your settings can be saved for the next time that you use the charts. Can you tell me how this works please, as I'd like to use the settings on a different PC? Does it create a cookie or a file that I can simply e-mail across or share on the network? Or does their server recognise my IP address and retrieve my settings that way?

Hil: I haven't checked the site yet, but I would go long on its being a Cookie. It won't be the IP address as that will change for many users from logon to logon. You'd have to delicately pluck a copy of the cookie from your browser cookie cache and copy it to the other machine (in the same place with the same browser).

If you're using Internet Exploder, look in \Windows\Cookies for stuff called www.dailyfx . . . It will be there.

Cheers

D.
PS: Does this make me the cookie monster in addition to the FX fairy?

....... and the Boot Fairy.

:o)

My first thought was that it would be a cookie, but I couldn't find any on my machine that remotely fitted the bill which was why I asked the question. Maybe I just couldn't see it for looking???????

Lovely demonstration of the MA/EMA crossover on Cable just now. Didn't trade it of course.

Daytime visit for once, short cable @ 25, not been in for a while..:-)

Out for +20, nice hours work...:-)

5/5/2005 2:10 am: EUR/$..1.2954 $/JPY..104.33 GBP/$..1.9038 $/CHF..1.1914 AUD/$..0.7792 $/CAD..1.2450

Dollar Broadens Losses, Yen Commands Gains by Ashraf Laidi


4:30 am UK Apr Services PMI (exp 56.5, prev 57.0), 8:30 am US Q1 adv Productivity y/y (exp 2.3%, prev 2.1%) US Weekly Jobless Claims (exp 320K, prev 320K). 9:15 am Chicago Fed President Moscow Speaks. 9:30 am Fed Chairman Greenspan Speaks. 10:00 am Canada Apr Ivey PMI (exp 58.5, prev 63.7) 9:30 pm RBA Interest Rate Decision (exp 5.50%, prev 5.50%)

Traders turn to a this mornings UK services PMI and US productivity for useful clues on inflation and output in both countries, before considering Fridays non-farm payrolls report in the US. The impact of the UK general election on sterling will depend on Labors margin of victory, with the upside seen capped at just under $1.91.


Sterling turns to services PMI, election

Aside from the results of the General expected to show another Labor victory, sterling traders this mornings services PMI expected to have slipped to 56.5 in April from 57.0. Recall that the March services PMI rose to 57.0 from 55.1 in February, growing for the 24th straight month, and at a much stronger pace than in prior months. The services sector continues outpacing the manufacturing sector whose PMI contracted last month for the first time in almost two years, when it fell to 49.5. On Tuesday, the Confederation of British Industry showed retail sales volumes fell to a 13-year low as the index fell to -14 from -9 a month earlier.

Meanwhile, we see the pair testing initial support at 1.8828, followed by 1.8850. Key foundation stands at the 7-month old trend line support extending from the 1.7750 low through the 1.8592. Cable sees interim resistance at $1.9050the 50% retracement of the $1.9214-1.8884 decline. A stronger than expected showing by the Labor Party in Thursdays election could see the cable hitting $1.9088. Support starts at the 100 MA of $1.8955 and 1.89.

Euro retains gains

Euro retraces more than half of the declines of the last 2 weeks, hovering at $1.2950. Traders will await this mornings jobless claims from the US, which has shown larger than expected declines in the past weeks, making up for the decline in the employment indices in the April ISMs. A report from International Business Machines saying it will cut as many as 13,000 jobs, mainly in Europe, has not weighed on the currency, but could dampen sentiment down the road in the already unemployed ridden region.

EURUSD faces resistance at $1.2984, which is the 61.8% retarcement of the decline from the $1.3123 high to the $1.2828 low. Key resistance seen capped at 1.3050. 1.2900 acts as the interim support at 38% retracement of the said move, with $1.2830 as the underpinning foundation.

Yen holds dollar at 104.40

The yen is on its way of dragging the dollar for the 4th week in a row, a pattern not seen since November as speculation of a yuan revaluation remains in the back of traders minds ahead of the end of the Labor Holiday.

Key support stands at 104.40--the 61.8% retracement of the 101.66-108.86 move, followed by 103.70. Interim resistance starts at 105.30, followed by 105.60the trend line support extending from the 101.66 low through the 103.64 low. The yens gains occurred despite Wednesdays remarks from China's Finance minister (just issued) indicating the difficulty of yuan reform due to current speculation allayed expectations of any revaluation announcement at end of the week.

Aussie drifts as RBA seen unchanged

Aussie recovers off its 77.70 low despite a report showing Australia's trade deficit widening to A$2.67 billion in March from a revised deficit of A$2.24 billion in February. The report came in greater than expectations of A$2.10 billion.

Selling pressure in the greenback hardly served as an encouragement to the Aussie amid weak housing Australian data, which reduced any possibilities of a Friday rate hike this week. The announcement is scheduled for Thursday evening NYT. We see the greenbacks sell-off boosting AUDUSD to no higher than 78.65. Support starts at the 100-day MA of 77.55 cents, followed by the 77.20 low. Key support stands at 76.9061.8% retracement of the 75.03-79.86 rally.

Am short cable from 19052 and 50

Ten four ;)

closed for net 25 points - looks as if it might be turning back up

Bugger
Don't you just hate it when it does that - never mind, I'm being all disciplined and sticking to my rules - even if they cost me points.

Out at 23 from 19055 - doesn't want to crack 20 yet

Nicked 15 more points and now I'm finished for the day. Off up to sunny Hull ;(

5/6/2005 2:19 pm: EUR/$..1.2939 $/JPY..104.61 GBP/$..1.9014 $/CHF..1.1946 AUD/$..0.7791 $/CAD..1.2445

Will US Payrolls Reflect the Soft Patch? by Ashraf Laidi


7:00 am Canada April Change in Employment (exp 17K, prev 4.4K), Canada April Unemployment Rate (exp 6.9%, prev 6.9%) 8:30 am US April Change in Nonfarm payrolls (exp 100K, prev 110K), US April Unemployment Rate (exp 5.2%, prev 5.2%) US April Average Hourly Earnings (exp 0.2%, prev 0.3%) 8:35 am Bank of Canada Governor Speaks.

Markets brace for this mornings release of the US non-farm payrolls, which we expect to show an increase of 95K-100K jobs rise in April, compared to consensus estimates of a 175K rise and 110K in March. Our rationale for the forecast is founded on the poor showing in the manufacturing ISMs employment index, falling to a 14-month low in April and the 2-month consecutive decline in the manufacturing ISMs employment index. These diffusion indices suggest further slowing in the trend of payrolls. Traders will also scrutinize the average hourly earnings, which are expected to slip to 0.2% from 0.3%. We also expect the March retreat in services payrolls below 100K and the renewed shedding of manufacturing jobs in to extend to April at a time when all indicators have indicated a slowdown in economic activity.

A payrolls figure of less than 120K coupled with an average hourly earnings growth of less than 0.3% should be dollar negative suggesting low inflation and cooler economic activity. The unemployment rate could edge down to 5.1% if payrolls come in between around the 100K-130K range.


Sterling drops as Blair wins with reduced majority

Cable is losing more than half a cent to $1.9010 after UK Prime Minister Tony Blair's Labor Party won yesterday's UK election with a margin of victory reduced to 66 seats from 161 seats five years ago. Blairs eroding majority is seen posing political difficulties especially as his Party attempts in passing legislation.

Sterling drifts around just above the $1.90 figure, at the 38% retracement of the $1.9214-1.8884 decline. A drop below $1.90 sees interim support at the 100 MA of $1.8950. Key foundation stands at $1.89. A US payrolls report of less than 120K could see cable boosted past the $1.9090the 61.8% retracement of the said move. Key resistance remains at $1.9120.

Aussie steadies after post RBA retreat

Aussie is gradually regaining the 78 cent figure after losing modest ground following the Reserve Bank of Australias decision to hold rates unchanged for the second consecutive month at 5.50%. The RBA said in its statement that the March rate hike: is starting to have a dampening influence on demand and that: The December quarter national accounts continued the pattern of previous quarters, showing weak growth in GDP alongside above-trend growth in domestic demand. But the central bank did leave the door open for possible tightening down the road stating: Based on previous cyclical experience, it would be surprising if interest rates did not have to increase further at some stage of the current expansion.

It would take another disappointing payrolls report from the US for Aussie to break its downward channel on the hourly chart. A figure below 120K should boost Aussie past 78.25 cents, with subsequent pressure emerging at 78.40. A break below than 77.75 cents, sees key support at the 100-day MA of 77.55 cents, followed by the 77.20 low. Upside seen capped at

Euro requires another US payrolls disappointment

Euro bulls seek another disappointing non-farm payrolls report for an essential source of impetus following this weeks Fed statement expressing the US soft patch. Increased doubts over the continuity of US rate hikes due to growth concerns and systemic risks in US markets have started to underpin the single currency at the 200-day MA.

We see the euros upside testing the $1.2984resistance--which is the 61.8% retracement of the decline from the $1.3123 high to the $1.2828 low. This follows upside pressure at $1.3030. We do not think that a surprisingly strong US payrolls--such as above 250K--would increase chances of more aggressive Fed tightening, thus we see euro support initially tempered at $1.29 and 1.2850.

Yen pauses for breather

The yen rally has somewhat receded as the dollar edged up to the 104.60s after Japanese markets reopened a lightly traded session following the week-long Golden Holiday in Japan. But the pair remains on its way to its 4th week in a row for the first time since November. A report from Chinas Finance Ministry saying growth remains too strong has not dented the dollar/yen rate.

USDJPY sees interim resistance at 105, followed by 105.30. We expect the dollars downward bias to call up support at 104.40--the 61.8% retracement of the 101.66-108.86 move, followed by 103.70.

USDCAD eyes falling 100 day MA

It would be CADs chance to drag USD past the 200 day MA of 1.2430 if Canadas employment does show a rise of at least 15K jobs and its US counterpart shows a soft 110K or less. But a positive US surprise (above 200K) could boost USD towards 1.2490 and 1.2530. A drop below the 200-day MA of 1.2430, is seen stabilizing at 1.2379the 38% retracement of the 1.1976-1.2633 move.