hilary
- 31 Dec 2003 13:00
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Forex rebates on every trade - win or lose!
hilary
- 09 May 2005 07:04
- 3976 of 11056
Well done the Fairy.
:o)
5/9/2005 1:40 am: EUR/$..1.2808 $/JPY..105.26 GBP/$..1.8878 $/CHF..1.2073 AUD/$..0.7733 $/CAD..1.2434
Dollar Seen Retaining Gains Until Trade Figures by Ashraf Laidi
4:30 am UK Mar Manufacturing Production (exp 0.1%, prev -0.5%), UK Mar Industrial Production (exp 0.2%, prev -0.4%) 6:00 am Germany Mar preliminary Industrial Production (exp -0.4%, prev -2.1%), 7:00 am Bank of England Interest Rate Decision (exp 4.75%, prev 4.75%)
The dollar starts the week as strongly as it ended the last following Fridays surprisingly strong showing of the April employment payrolls, defying emerging conditions of an economic soft patch in the US. As Fed fund futures revised up their expectations for a year-end target of 3.75-4.00% from a recently downgraded 3.5%, the dollars broadened its rally, and further neared the 200-day moving average of 84.69 in the trade weighted index. A breach of the 85.00 level could open the way to the February high of 85.44.
Markets turn to Tuesdays trade balance figures from the US expected to show a new record of $62 billion, which could temporarily cool the dollars rally. A figure above $62 billion could have a more protracted negative impact as it would be seen eroding a bigger bite off Q1 GDP and lead to a revised real Q1 GDP growth of less than 3.0%. But dollar bulls could take heart from an expected 0.7% increase in April retail sales, which if realized, could further dampen concerns of a cooling US economy and boost expectations of extended Fed tightening beyond June. In such case, we would expect the retail sales figure to command the greater FX impact, especially of core retail sales (excluding autos) are seen increasing by as much as 0.5%.
Speculators favored euro, Aussie and yen
Speculators edged away from the dollar, in favor of the euro, yen and Aussie, while further reducing their positions in Sterling, Loonie and Swissie against the greenback.
Euro net longs rose 16% last week to 4,875 contracts, breaking a 6 week falling streak. That was the longest streak of weekly declines since the 6-week period ending in late December of last year. Since the reported data was for the period ending last Tuesday, it did not reflect Fridays post payrolls sell-off.
Yen shorts fell by 57% to 14,131 contracts, further curtailing the bearishness ensued between mid March and late April. This was the second weekly drop in net shorts after bearishness topped at 54,697 contracts 2 weeks ago. Speculation of an impending revaluation in Chinas currency, coupled with concerns of slowing Fed tightening helped fuel the yen to 6-week highs against the dollar.
AUD net longs edged up 8% to 29,365 contracts, the highest since the week of April 22. Aussie longs have risen during 12 out of the 18 weeks of the year-to-date.
Sterling net longs fell 16% to 19,878 contracts, dropping for the second week in a row after having risen for 3 straight weeks prior. We expect to see further drop in net longs from next weeks data reflecting last weeks 2 cent tumble in cable, resulting from a reduced majority in the victorious Labor partys majority and the Friday drop.
CAD net shorts fell 35% to 33,321 contracts, posting their fourth weekly increase, the worst level of bearishness in 3 years.
CHF net shorts rose by a third to 13,330 contracts.
Sterling could lose fresh ground after BoE rate decision
Sterling traders are seen reluctant posting taking any fresh bids in sterling ahead of this mornings Bank of England decision, widely expected to hold rates unchanged at 4.75%. Enforcing expectations of a no rate hike is last weeks manufacturing and sales report dipping to 2-year lows, including a recessionary manufacturing sector. Friday proved a double blow for sterling after Prime Minister Tony Blair's Labor Party majority more than halvedand after the US non-farm payrolls came in 100K above expectations at 274K.
Cable could stabilize before the BoE decision in the event that manufacturing production figures show an increase of least 0.1%.
Downside seen testing the $1.8830 supportthe 61.8% retracement of the $1.8600-1.9213 rise. This figure also coincides with the 6-month trendline support extending from the $1.7750 low. Key support stands at $1.8750. Upside seen temporary capped at the 100 MA of $1.8950, followed by $1.897550% retracement of the said move.
Euro drifts below 20-month trend line, 200 day MA
Euro is currently trading below its 200 day moving average and the major trend line support of $1.2850, extending from the Sep 2003 low of $1.0761. It is also Fridays stronger than expected payrolls from the US was a wake-up call for euro bulls, especially that it gave the euro its biggest daily drop in more than a month.
Traders have already witnessed the euros sell-off testing its 200 day MA in mid April, but turning higher thereafter. We see interim support starting at $1.2765 low, followed by $1.2730. Key support (as seen in latest Article chart) remains at $1.2707the 50% retracement of the rally from the $1.1790 low to the 1.3662 high. Upside capped at the 200 day MA of $1.2850, followed by 1.2875.
Yen drops amid absence of yuan talk
Fridays payrolls report coupled with the absence of fresh talk from fading speculation of a near-term yuan revaluation is dragging the Japanese currency across the board. Further optimism of a fading soft patch could boost the dollar to no more than 105.75, with 106 serving as key resistancethe 38% retracement of the 108.86-104.42 drop. Support seen acting at the 100-day ma of 105, followed by 104.70 and 104.40--the 61.8% retracement of the 101.66-108.86 move.
Aussie seen drifting to 77 cents
Testing the downside of the its 2 1/2 week consolidation, Aussie is under strain from Fridays payrolls and the statement from the Reserve Bank of Australia decision indicating that the March rate hike: is starting to have a dampening influence on demand. Although, the central bank left the door open for possible tightening down the road, the potential for a summer tightening remains dubious.
A drop below 77.20 is seen stabilizing at 77 cents, unless traders are emboldened to open fresh USD bids, which could drag the pair down to 76.87 supportthe 61.8% retracement of the 75.00-79.86 rise. Resistance starts at the 100-day MA of 77.60 followed by 78 cents.
USDCAD stabilizes around 200 day MA
The dollar is finally stabilizing against the loonie after failing to rally on Friday despite the strong US job figures. Canadas job report showed an increase of 29.3K, about 75% greater than expectations. But the greenback is stabilizing around the 200 day MA of 1.2420.
Upside seen capped at 1.2470, with accumulated bids seen topping out at 1.25. A drop below 1.2420, is seen stabilizing at 1.2379the 38% retracement of the 1.1976-1.2633 move.
chocolat
- 10 May 2005 00:16
- 3978 of 11056
Treasury official: China ready for currency flexibility
AFX
WASHINGTON (AFX) -- China has made 'sufficient progress' to introduce exchange rate flexibility now, a U.S. Treasury spokesman said Monday following meetings between Chinese and U.S. financial officials. Officials discussed exchange rate policies, central bank open market activities and other subjects for about two and a half hours, spokesman Tony Fratto said. U.S. and Chinese financial officials may meet again as soon as this summer in Beijing, he said.
This story was supplied by MarketWatch. For further information see www.marketwatch.com.
mg
- 10 May 2005 07:23
- 3979 of 11056
Made a nice, early morning 40 short. Now long from 785
[EDIT - way too previous on that long - closed flat - but looking for the turn - always a bit scary - often quite expensive ;( ]
mg
- 10 May 2005 07:56
- 3981 of 11056
Morning choccypops
Just gone long from 770 - hoping for a clean turn - a bit previous I suspect
chocolat
- 10 May 2005 07:59
- 3982 of 11056
If that's the case then we've both been a bit previous :)
chocolat
- 10 May 2005 08:11
- 3984 of 11056
There's nothing like adding to a good position ;)
mg
- 10 May 2005 08:13
- 3985 of 11056
Oooooooooh some people ;)
Added, 'cos I think I can see a new way in !!!!
I wish I could say I'm trying it from 69, but I'm afraid it's 72 ;)
[EDIT - I think it's the "bend at the end" ]
chocolat
- 10 May 2005 08:16
- 3986 of 11056
Well I wasn't going to say...but it was between 68 and 70 :)
mg
- 10 May 2005 08:49
- 3988 of 11056
MM
Hey, man, chill - have one of those hash cookies with your breakfast ;)
Papal Proclamation No 69 (for after the white smoke)
mg XIV
chocolat
- 10 May 2005 09:07
- 3990 of 11056
Who me, MM? Chocolate wouldn't melt in my mouth..
Heyy popiepops - you got your order wrong there again :)