Scripophilist
- 27 Oct 2004 23:40

How would you like to trade a market where you get large regular price swings every 10 minutes in the afternoon, seven days a week. A
market where all prices are set purely by supply and demand, few transaction costs, no middle men and you only pay commission if you win? Where you can freely act as a market maker and where you have direct market access and where you can create a spread for others to take?
Betfair has revolutionised the betting market and created an open platform for exchanging risk on sports events. This market is now viewed much more like a traditional financial risk market than an old fashioned betting market. Smart users have realised that there are huge opportunities on Betfair because they can buy and sell risk in much the same way they would in a normal financial market but without the burden of cost or the restricted access that is usually associated with traditional financial markets.
Click here to learn more
Fundamentalist
- 11 Jul 2005 22:06
- 3976 of 10502
cant get link to work on new BB can anyone tell me how to do so?
the web page is:
www.opengolf.com/news/tee_times_official.sps
DocProc
- 11 Jul 2005 22:08
- 3977 of 10502
Scrip
Sorry to hear that. :-(
You haven't been trying to bump up the kerb, have you?
Reminds me of when I was a 'butcher's boy' - one of my my part-time jobs, whilst at school. I'm talking 1957/58/59 and my wages were 1 per week plus tips.
I had a bike with small wheels and a wicker basket at the front, laden chocabloc with lovely joints of meat all nicely wrapped up in white kraft paper.
Not after I tried to bump the kerb with the bike one wet morning, they weren't! You simply can't bump a basket full of meat at the front of a butcher's bike but I didn't know that until I tried to do it!
hehehe
:-)
PS. You haven't grazed your chin, have you?
Scripophilist
- 11 Jul 2005 22:38
- 3978 of 10502
Don't say I didn't warn you.
I was on the same route I have travelled hundreds of times only this time something must have been different as the wheel turned 90 degrees and threw me off forwards. I was going about 20mph and the towpath on the canal at that point is made from flint from the castle ruins adjoining the canal. I landed on my knees first and then whiplashed my head into the ground. I tore the skin off my knees, took a chunk out my head gently pealing back a small part which was by then the main contact with the ground, damaged my shoulder, hand, neck and the flint path kindly lacerated various parts of my body. Thank fully I didn't knock myself out or fall in the canal but I was losing a lot of blood and was in the middle of nowhere so I had to walk to find help. One and a half hours later I was finally in hospital where they cleaned up the wounds and stitched me up. They did a good job. I don't look too bad today but hell do I hurt and the bandages keep needing to be changed. I can only sleep on my back as well at the moment so my wife is well pleased with my constant snoring!
The good thing is I can still talk and type so to the outside world nothing has changed. I will be a hermit in my house for a week though. Can't do the school run either for fear of giving the children nightmares especially as I can't shave at the moment. Still it could have been much worse.
I did manage to retrieve the bike which actually looked completely untouched for some reason. Can't figure out what happened though. So much for the golf I booked for Friday.
Scripophilist
- 11 Jul 2005 22:42
- 3979 of 10502
BTW, Footy's back this week Liverpool vs TNS (Who?)
Will be interesting to see the volume on this one. Lay Liverpool of course they ain't ever going to win the champions league are they?
Scripophilist
- 12 Jul 2005 09:56
- 3980 of 10502
Harrington is out of the open after his father death. But there is still money available to lay him. I have taken as much as I want.
Harlosh
- 12 Jul 2005 10:01
- 3981 of 10502
Not there now.
Scripophilist
- 12 Jul 2005 10:02
- 3982 of 10502
That was quick, they voided him. Was worth a try, Certainly no risk. Currently the win market is showing 200% and the cut 2900% there is an arb in there somewhere.
compoundup
- 12 Jul 2005 10:59
- 3983 of 10502
Sorry to hear of your latest mishap, Scrip. Does this come under the "nothing ventured" area of risk management? What with tree roots last year and mountain bikes this year, IMHO you need to lay-off some of these risks ;-)
Then again some of us can get into nasty scrapes without thinking we're taking on excess risk. LOL
kernow
- 12 Jul 2005 11:44
- 3984 of 10502
I can do a risk assessment for you Script :-)
Choi is my initial Open bet. Looks good value to green after the cut.
Scripophilist
- 12 Jul 2005 12:52
- 3985 of 10502
Life would be boring without risk and besides I will most likely have a war wound now to impress the girls.
compoundup
- 12 Jul 2005 13:47
- 3986 of 10502
Scrip :-)
I have been watching the book on the Nat West 1-day England -v- Australia match. Despite England being under pressure right through their innings it has been extremely difficult to pick a position to trade. The big money is with Australia.
I think I would be right in saying that the flow of the odds will be easier to understand in the second (Australia) innings when the target number of runs is known and decay can be factored in to the estimation of probabilities.
To that extent not dissimilar from football match tactics. Any thoughts?
Fundamentalist
- 12 Jul 2005 14:04
- 3987 of 10502
Compound
Been trading the game quite successfully - backed the aussies prior to the game. They tend to get a flier if they bat whereas with the new rules and the way England start their odds shorten quite quickly. Greened up at 1.09 though looking to back Australia again if the price gets back above 1.25 (it got to 1.24 before Pieterson was out grrr). Cant see anyway England can win - the pitch looks like 280-300 is a reasonable score and in the second innings Australia have an extra batsman (using their sub Katich) and England are a bowler light (having had to sub Solanki for Jones)
Scripophilist
- 12 Jul 2005 14:53
- 3988 of 10502
I've fiddled with a few strategies on the cricket but not found any thing that works particulary well for me. First four horse races this afternoon have been good to trade.
Scripophilist
- 12 Jul 2005 20:37
- 3989 of 10502
Liverpool 1.03 to beat TNS, If somebody reminds me tomorrow I'll run it through my spreadsheet and see if it throws up opportunities.
compoundup
- 13 Jul 2005 08:55
- 3990 of 10502
This strategy worked for me yesterday. Killarney 17:20 was a long race - 2m6f handicap hurdle. Whilst in-running plays might be regarded as dangerous, especially in a jump race, the duration of the race could give an opportunity for profit given fast finger work.
I saw that the favourite started a more or less the same odds as the pre-race and thought there might be an opportunity if I could get filled. After running for about 30 seconds the odds started coming in. I backed and got a fill at 3.0 and laid less than 10 seconds later at 1.3. Greened a second or two later in the way that only Pro allows for a very handsome return.
I note that in the subsequent race of similar distance the favourite fell so I could easily have lost my stake but the total exposure was probably no more than 15 seconds of a 5 minute race.
Harlosh
- 13 Jul 2005 10:53
- 3991 of 10502
Compound,
It can go either way I assure you. The odds can move so fast when in running you have no chance of exiting a losing position. I do not believe there is a profitable in running strategy. Only a losing one.
Scripophilist
- 13 Jul 2005 11:31
- 3992 of 10502
Just worked through the Odds on Liverpool vs TNS
Fair value is
Liverpool >1.01!!!
Draw > 96
TNS > 665
Over 2.5 goals >1.11
For Bet Angel users I will post more detail later via MOTD.
The calculations are so wild that I needed to re-write the spreadsheet to cover up to 16 goals for the home team.
bakko
- 13 Jul 2005 13:42
- 3993 of 10502
Scrip, Thanks for your odds.
Although, I fully expect Liverpool to trounce TNS, I'll be laying them off at the outset. At 1.03/04 the risk is virtually next to nothing! TNS will be up for it and keeping a clean sheet for 30mins will be an achievement!
Bear in mind that Liverpool narrowly beat Wrexham 4-3 last week.
Stranger things have happened! Look at my team ManU who got held 0-0 at home against lowly Exeter last season. I can't remember precise odds but was approx 1.06/07.
Scripophilist
- 13 Jul 2005 13:45
- 3994 of 10502
There is more potential upside from laying than not. Price would shift quite a bit if TNS were to score for sure.
bakko
- 13 Jul 2005 13:57
- 3995 of 10502
Price of Liverpool has now shortened to 1.02/03. Just layed them at 1.03.
Grab some before it drifts out again!