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That was quick, they voided him. Was worth a try, Certainly no risk. Currently the win market is showing 200% and the cut 2900% there is an arb in there somewhere.

Sorry to hear of your latest mishap, Scrip. Does this come under the "nothing ventured" area of risk management? What with tree roots last year and mountain bikes this year, IMHO you need to lay-off some of these risks ;-)

Then again some of us can get into nasty scrapes without thinking we're taking on excess risk. LOL

I can do a risk assessment for you Script :-)
Choi is my initial Open bet. Looks good value to green after the cut.

Life would be boring without risk and besides I will most likely have a war wound now to impress the girls.

Scrip :-)

I have been watching the book on the Nat West 1-day England -v- Australia match. Despite England being under pressure right through their innings it has been extremely difficult to pick a position to trade. The big money is with Australia.

I think I would be right in saying that the flow of the odds will be easier to understand in the second (Australia) innings when the target number of runs is known and decay can be factored in to the estimation of probabilities.

To that extent not dissimilar from football match tactics. Any thoughts?

Compound

Been trading the game quite successfully - backed the aussies prior to the game. They tend to get a flier if they bat whereas with the new rules and the way England start their odds shorten quite quickly. Greened up at 1.09 though looking to back Australia again if the price gets back above 1.25 (it got to 1.24 before Pieterson was out grrr). Cant see anyway England can win - the pitch looks like 280-300 is a reasonable score and in the second innings Australia have an extra batsman (using their sub Katich) and England are a bowler light (having had to sub Solanki for Jones)

I've fiddled with a few strategies on the cricket but not found any thing that works particulary well for me. First four horse races this afternoon have been good to trade.

Liverpool 1.03 to beat TNS, If somebody reminds me tomorrow I'll run it through my spreadsheet and see if it throws up opportunities.

This strategy worked for me yesterday. Killarney 17:20 was a long race - 2m6f handicap hurdle. Whilst in-running plays might be regarded as dangerous, especially in a jump race, the duration of the race could give an opportunity for profit given fast finger work.

I saw that the favourite started a more or less the same odds as the pre-race and thought there might be an opportunity if I could get filled. After running for about 30 seconds the odds started coming in. I backed and got a fill at 3.0 and laid less than 10 seconds later at 1.3. Greened a second or two later in the way that only Pro allows for a very handsome return.

I note that in the subsequent race of similar distance the favourite fell so I could easily have lost my stake but the total exposure was probably no more than 15 seconds of a 5 minute race.

Compound,

It can go either way I assure you. The odds can move so fast when in running you have no chance of exiting a losing position. I do not believe there is a profitable in running strategy. Only a losing one.

Just worked through the Odds on Liverpool vs TNS

Fair value is

Liverpool >1.01!!!
Draw > 96
TNS > 665

Over 2.5 goals >1.11

For Bet Angel users I will post more detail later via MOTD.

The calculations are so wild that I needed to re-write the spreadsheet to cover up to 16 goals for the home team.

Scrip, Thanks for your odds.

Although, I fully expect Liverpool to trounce TNS, I'll be laying them off at the outset. At 1.03/04 the risk is virtually next to nothing! TNS will be up for it and keeping a clean sheet for 30mins will be an achievement!

Bear in mind that Liverpool narrowly beat Wrexham 4-3 last week.

Stranger things have happened! Look at my team ManU who got held 0-0 at home against lowly Exeter last season. I can't remember precise odds but was approx 1.06/07.

There is more potential upside from laying than not. Price would shift quite a bit if TNS were to score for sure.

Price of Liverpool has now shortened to 1.02/03. Just layed them at 1.03.

Grab some before it drifts out again!

Scrip I intended coming on the course on the 7th but for some reason I decided that I could not make it - glad now that I was not in town after all.

But this leads me to ask - is the event to be rescheduled? and if so when?

Scrip

Same thing here. Planning another one soon?

And how about one 'out of town', one where we can drive to? Or do you need a room with a setup that say, has a laptop for each course delegate, sorta kinda?

Ross Comm lovely drifter in the 16:10, 2.50-3.05

There are no plans at the moment for another course. I am discussing the possibility of one but nothing firm at the moment. Please drop an email to pwebb@optic.ltd.uk and I can add you to the interested list and will let you know if something happens.

Dodgy, Rifleman in the 16:40 Bet Angel picked up a volume spike of 253k! Surely a dodgy trade.

What a day this is turning out to be. Favourite at 1.32 beaten.