GOL has all the indications of being a VALUE share.

Selected in the Times (20 Sep 06) as a Smaller Stock to Watch.

Recent interim results indicate they are delivering shareholder value with plenty of upside to come

On a quick scan of the results, I like the look of the numbers, but the maret is seemingly nervous about the state of the commodities prices at the moment.

However, the business is diversifying and it seems they have a few tricks up their sleeve (e.g. the move to place a fund in Guernsey).

Screaming buy?

Looks good , on my list.

Jumped in just now for a small inital amount.

Before you all get carried away with excitement, or is it greed ..... While GOL looks to be on an undemanding p/e of about 6, bear in mind that RTZ's p/e is only about 7 ...... GOL's sp is dependent upon commodity prices staying at worst on an upward trend, for notwithstanding that GOL intends to sell off its direct commodity interests, the commodity companies which it will then look to promote are themselves depenedent on commodity prices staying strong ...... weak commodity price = weak(er) sp = less easy to raise new money or to float = reflection on GOL's ability to generate its own income and profits.

At the moment, US economy is slowing and this has already reflected in weak oil and other commodity prices ....... will China's growth continue (immediately) strong, and thus its appetite for hard commodities? ...... not quite as certain as it was

Good morning,Cynic. I'm sure it's greed :o)

We shall see what happens; I like the business model though.

Cynic, Thanks for a balancing view as usual. Greed or Excitement?? Neither.

The question of whether we are coming to an end of a commodities Bull run or whether it will be a correction is being debated in the money press. I'm not qualified to answer that and views vary. If the business models for the companies that GOL has invested in are basing profitability on more conservative commodity prices then GOL should be robust.

The company clearly has been debating this issue as well, judging by their statement in the interim results:

'The Group remains at the centre of financing the natural resources/commodity
sector. The rapidly expanding BRIC economies (Brazil, Russia, India and China)
continue to provide very robust conditions in most commodity markets. As supply
and demand is substantially out of balance for nearly all commodities, the
Directors believe that the bull market in this sector although volatile from
time to time, is still in an upward cycle. The shortest commodities bull market
lasted 15 years, the longest 23 years so, in theory, the current cycle still has
a long way to go with the US commodity price index adjusted for CPI still
indicating that commodity price levels are yet to reach previous peaks.'

Reading of the Interim Results also indicate that are starting to adapt their business model to be more robust.

I suppose a well calculated Risk/Reward Ratio and a realtivly tight stop loss will protect anyone who is nervous. Personally, I bought in at lower levels and before the May 06 market correction and have a 28% return thus far, but believe still greater upside, particularly if the management are pro-active in the way they develop the company. If ever anyone was in touch with the commodities market then Malcom Burne is. :-)

thanks for the intelligent response ....... i also think that long term the commodity cycle has a good way to run ...... however, the underlying prices have risen so sharply over the last year or two, that it would take a very very major correction for that trend to be broken ...... for all that, there is a pretty strong argument that a significant correction is now overdue (and one opposing that too!).

for myself, i have put the stock on my watchlist, for i tend towards the view of a sharp correction and, especially as GOL has already enjoyed a good run in the last few days, albeit after a precipitous drop, i think it will be possible to buy the shares quite a bit cheaper in the near future as the short term holdings are liquidated - say around 54p per chart indication

Cynic,

Thanks and agree that if SP dips and reaches 200 day MA then very good buying opportunity. RSI currently on the high side at 75. We're only talking 4.5p down from here, with significant potential upside. :-)

200 dma is as shown on chart above ...... note that it is now almost flat and may start to trend down ...... and RSI shows as over 80 which indicates seriously overbought ..... would want to see it no higher than 60

.

Shares Mag have GOL as buy, but before you do read previous posts & DYOR. :-)

haven't picked up my copy of the mag yet ..... Shares Mag has also promoted some stinkers in the past ...... I think SEO was one of those!

Cynic, I note your comment Re: Shares Mag on the SEO thread. Very magnanimous. Most things have to be seen in Context, to make a valid judgement. Please don't stop being a cynic though, we all need checks & controls in this business. :-)

i try to add some amusement too ..... would have said humour, but would have had few takers on that score

May see a loy of buys after share mag tip .

Not so far, but hope springs eternal :o)

Afternoon all.

FWIW, I notice that the name of Ambrian seems to pop up with increasing frequency in various news releases, e.g. in the Pangea float announced recently in Shares Mag, and in today's financial results released by Ariana Resources, for whom Ambrian is acting as house broker.

Clearly Ambrian are generating plenty of business and making a name for themselves, which augurs well for the future.

Of course, it would be even better news for my holding of Ariana if GOL had also taken a stake in the company, but I can't see GOL on the list of major shareholders, so I assume they're not involved or that their shareholding is very small indeed :o(

And Ambrian is also acting for the lovely Renesola (SOLA).