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The Traders Thread - Monday 9th November (TRAD)     

Greystone - 08 Nov 2009 09:35

Greystone - 08 Nov 2009 09:37 - 4 of 19

Kyoto - 09 Nov 2009 01:19 - 5 of 19

Morning all. Friday's market reports:

Telegraph
The Times
The Times (Need to know)
FT
The Guardian
The Independent
This is Money

Saturday

The banking sector must be overhauled as profoundly as in the wake of the Great Depression or financiers will "game the state" over and over again, the head of the Bank of England's financial stability arm has warned.
Bank of England says financiers are fuelling an economic 'doom loop'

Concerns that the UK property market is entering a bubble have been exacerbated after new data showed yields have returned to 2006 levels after seeing their biggest monthly decline since 1993 in October.
Commercial property values prompt fears of a bubble

The US unemployment rate has risen above the 10pc mark for the first time since Ronald Reagan was president, as the worst downturn since the 1930s claimed more casualties.
US unemployment hits 10pc for first time since Ronald Reagan was in power

The risk of the biggest US equities correction since the March low on the S&P500 has increased over the past week - but Asian economies, after a comparatively resilient year, are better placed than usual to resist an S&P-correlated correction, notes CLSAs Christopher Wood in his latest Greed & Fear newsletter.
Why Asia may shake off an S&P correction

Sunday

Britain has secured assurances from the rest of the G20 that there will be no global reduction in financial support for world economies until it is clear that any nascent recovery is sustainable.
G20 finance ministers agree to maintain fiscal support

The international finance community was split last night after Gordon Brown surprised world leaders by announcing that he wanted to explore a multi-billion pound worldwide tax on financial transactions.
US Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner slaps down Gordon Brown's 'global tax'

Given that the Bank seems to like operating in 25 billion units, logic would suggest that the process will end entirely in February, barring economic accidents. We may know more when the Bank publishes its quarterly inflation report this week. Last weeks move seemed well-judged. The question has arisen, however, about whether the Bank is part of a global conspiracy by central banks to drive up asset prices - shares, bonds, property, commodities - which is creating a bubble that will burst with devastating consequences.
Are the central banks blowing new bubbles?

Mervyn King will reveal the Bank of England's forecasts for the crucial pre-election period this week, amid a furious row among some of Britain's most prominent economists about whether the recession is already over.
King to reveal pre-election forecasts as economists row over downturn

LLOYDS BANKING GROUP is being kept afloat with 165 billion of loans and guarantees from the Bank of England and other central banks around the world, The Sunday Times can reveal.
Secret 165bn loan keeping Lloyds alive

A Financial Services Authority investigation into whether HBOS's former board may have misled investors at the time of the bank's abortive 4bn rights issue last year could "open the floodgates" to hundreds of civil court actions against Lloyds Banking Group, which acquired HBOS in January, according to senior legal sources.
Inquiry asks if HBOS misled over rights issue

Monday

Job losses will continue this quarter, but at the slowest pace since the beginning of the recession, according to figures from the Chartered Institute of Personnel and Development (CIPD) and KPMG, the financial services firm.
Outlook for jobs will remain grim for several years

On the one hand, a growing number of economists are the early-bird canaries in the mine, warning of a dangerous build up of natural gas on the verge of suffocating the market with an oversupply. On the other side, there is no shortage of energy companies dashing into the biggest gas extraction projects the world has ever known, proclaiming that a new era of burgeoning demand will be upon us.
Future of gas linked with political decisions

China's premier pledged $10bn (6bn) in low-interest loans to African nations over three years, offering the continent sorely-needed cash while dismissing criticism that Beijing's motives in Africa are far from altruistic.
China pledges $10bn concessional loans to Africa

When the Movement for Democratic Change took over Zimbabwe's economy earlier this year, there was not much left to run. Robert Mugabe's Zanu PF regime had carried out the most comprehensive destruction of a productive system seen in modern times short of war.
For brave investors, Zimbabwe could be the ultimate turnaround story

Kyoto - 09 Nov 2009 01:24 - 6 of 19

NIKKEI 225AUSTRALIA ASX200SHANGHAIHANG SENG
t?s=%5EN225t?s=%5EAXJOt?s=000001.SSt?s=%5EHSI
KOSPIVIXGOLDNYMEX CRUDE
t?s=%5EKS11t?s=%5EVIXgold_1d_o_USD.pngchart.jpg
SENSEX
t?s=%5EBSESN

Greystone - 09 Nov 2009 05:37 - 7 of 19

Good morning traders!

In Asia this morning, the Nikkei was up 25.75 points at 9,815.1, while the Hang
Seng ended the morning session ahead 233.44 points at 22,063.16.

Crude oil traded at $78.35 a barrel on Nymex and gold hovered around $1,104 an ounce.

Happy Monday!

G.

Kyoto - 09 Nov 2009 06:15 - 8 of 19

Long-dated oil prices have risen to nearly $100 a barrel, in a sign that investors are expecting high prices to return after the recession.
Long-dated oil soars

Kyoto - 09 Nov 2009 07:56 - 9 of 19

AV. ING: buy, tp raised to 523 from 434
AZN JPMorgan: downgraded to underweight from neutral, tp cut to 2960 from 3000
AZN RBS: upgraded to buy from hold, tp raised to 3500 from 2620
CW. Morgan Stanley: reiterated equalweight, tp cut to 170 from 190
GFS Panmure: buy
GSK JPMorgan: underweight, tp raised to 1350 from 1050
GSK RBS: buy, tp raised to 1760 from 1410
LGEN ING: sell, tp raised to 52 from 36
PRU ING: hold, tp raised to 584 from 392
RSA ING: hold, tp cut to 129 from 131
RTO Morgan Stanley: reiterated overweight, tp raised to 120 from 115
SL. ING: hold, tp raised to 232 from 157

Kyoto - 09 Nov 2009 07:57 - 10 of 19

Twitter Updates
more >>

Greystone - 09 Nov 2009 09:04 - 11 of 19

Opening Market Overview

Master RSI - 09 Nov 2009 09:05 - 12 of 19

KEEP an EYE

TLDH

News last Saturday of introduction of new top-level domains non-Latin scripts

November 7, 2009 - London - In a move widely regarded as a necessary prerequisite to a broad introduction of new top-level domains, the Board of Directors of the Internet Corporation for Assigned Names and Numbers (ICANN) has authorized the creation of new top-level domains (TLDs), or web addresses, in non-Latin scripts. For the first time ever, countries around the world can create their own top-level domain - the equivalent to .com, .net, or .uk - without using the Roman alphabet.

Chart.aspx?Provider=EODIntra&Code=tldh&S

Master RSI - 09 Nov 2009 10:07 - 13 of 19

One for the "UPS"

XTR 2.875p

reason : News last Friday " The failure of the production test is inconclusive ". Since then the share price has fallen 38% from 4.40p, for the last 30 minutes it seems is reaching bottom and could be ready for the bounce on a better Level 2 of 3 v 1 and already paying premium for large size.

Chart.aspx?Provider=EODIntra&Code=xtr&Si

ahoj - 09 Nov 2009 12:35 - 14 of 19

Is Investec's a reliable company?
Shall I relie on their evaluation of stocks or they are junk like many others?

Thanks in advance for any comment about this.

Greystone - 09 Nov 2009 12:39 - 15 of 19

Midday Market Overview

Kyoto - 09 Nov 2009 13:51 - 16 of 19

ahoj - Should you rely on Investec's evaluation of stocks? No. And you shouldn't rely on anyone else's either. In the end, analysts at brokers put out notes - and they can vary from single-page speculation to well thought through documents with dozens of carefully calculated valuation ratios and future scenarios. But they are opinions, and there's often a diverse range of opinion because normally nobody can really agree on exactly how a company should be precisely valued given its circumstances.

I'm not sure I'd regard many broker notes as 'junk', but one must be careful of house brokers or brokers with agendas. In the smaller end of the market, one should be particularly wary of paid-for research - i.e. 'research' funded by the company themselves via a third-party broker. This usually produces the recommendation the company would like to see.

ahoj - 09 Nov 2009 15:10 - 17 of 19

Thaks Kyoto.
I love the news below. China is selling more cars than any other country in the world and it is growing fast. House prices are rising too.

http://finance.yahoo.com/news/China-October-auto-sales-up-apf-514815824.html?x=0&sec=topStories&pos=9&asset=&ccode=

ahoj - 09 Nov 2009 16:00 - 18 of 19

I baught an iMac last week. They have to deliver it from China!
Good new for Apple, IMO

Greystone - 09 Nov 2009 17:00 - 19 of 19

End-of-day Market Overview
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