Website http://www.svb.co.uk/

Dear All,

Previously know at Lloyd's as Spreckley, Villiers, Burnhope, here is the chartists/fundamentals discussion thread:-



The Earnings Per Share are forecast at 4.40p 2002 rising to 8.90p 2003 so at 49.50p the PER is 11.25 2002 dropping to 5.56 2003 not exactly demanding in view interim result.

I think SVB which has hardly moved comparative to KIN, WUN, AML, GOS, HSX, BRE yet is worth more than current valuation by miles ie 8.90/4.40 =102.27% PEG Price Earnings Growth 2003/2002, and price of stock shows PER Price Earnings Ratio is utterly ludicrously cheap at prospective 2003 5.56 times EPS for a company growing profits at 102.27% per annum.

I set a value criteria of 200% to 225% of prospective NTA 2003 ie 2 to 2.25 times 73p=146p, to 164.25p, or a PER at say 17.50 to 20 times ie say FTSE Sector average of 2003 prospective 8.90p=155.75p to 178p.

None of the above seems vaguely rampy if you consider SVB was trading at above 160p 15 months ago in June 2001 and reached 180p in 1998 according to NUMIS reports.

Short Term Hourly Ticks:-



Adjusted NTA 62p, Adjusted NAV 68p per NUMIS report 24.06.2002

Profits before tax forecast at &pound10.90m 2002 rising to &pound23.60m 2003, so at market cap of &pound96.28m we are being asked to pay 4.08 times 2003 forecast PBT, per NUMIS-LOL!

Short term chart:-



All IMHO, NAG,DYOR etc, etc

Cheers

Ash

Diogenes,

I am a big bull of the Lloyd's market in 2003, no Catastrophe loss dependent, otherwise I see a continuation of the rally to June, and December 2003 peaks.

It is the scope of the 2002 profits, which should be massively exceeded in 2003 now WTC is behind them, that could lead to some mighty punchy June to July 2004 shareprices if results are as good as forecast.

Vasey,

You know I like BRE, it is just that SVB is around one fifth of the BRE market capitalisation, and I can see SVB going back to 162.50p/166.50p, which means my risk reward is excellent even now.

HSBC seemed to reckon 100p six months ago, I came to 91.90p, but with NTA at 60.80p, NAV at 66.80p, a valuation by June 2003 to June 2004 of 2.50 times NTA or 2.50 times NAV in the 152p to 167p range does not sound preposterous to me.

I think at the top in 2001 shares had traded to 4 times NTA, so I do not think I am too madly optimistic.

All IMHO, NAG, DYOR etc, etc

Cheers

Ash

Vasey,

This was released after hours 4.34pm today so may cause a rise in the morning, L and G bought 550,000 shares not sold 550,000 shares:-

RNS Number:5579G
SVB Holdings PLC
23 January 2003

SCHEDULE 10

NOTIFICATION OF MAJOR INTERESTS IN SHARES


The following replaces the Holding in Company announcement released on 23rd
January 2003 at 15:53 hours under RNS 5528G as that announcement incorrectly
showed the change as a disposal when it should have been an acquisition of
550,000 shares.



THE FULL AMEMNDED VERSION APPEARS BELOW.



1. Name of company

SVB Holdings PLC

2. Name of shareholder having a major interest

Legal & General Investment Management Limited

3. Please state whether notification indicates that it is in respect of
holding of the shareholder named in 2 above or in respect of a non-beneficial
interest or in the case of an individual holder if it is a holding of that
person's spouse or children under the age of 18

As above

4. Name of the registered holder(s) and, if more than one holder, the
number of shares held by each of them

HSBC Global Custody Nominee (UK) Ltd A/c 887711 1,450,717
HSBC Global Custody Nominee (UK) Ltd A/c 775245 1,313,250
HSBC Global Custody Nominee (UK) Ltd A/c 360509 224,912
HSBC Global Custody Nominee (UK) Ltd A/c 357206 4,350,689
HSBC Global Custody Nominee (UK) Ltd A/c 747381 383,880
HSBC Global Custody Nominee (UK) Ltd A/c 363605 307,000
HSBC Global Custody Nominee (UK) Ltd A/c 866203 250,694
HSBC Global Custody Nominee (UK) Ltd A/c 904333 10,131

5. Number of shares/amount of stock acquired

550,000

6. Percentage of issued class

0.28%

7. Number of shares/amount of stock disposed

N/a

8. Percentage of issued class

N/a

9. Class of security

Ordinary shares of 50p each

10. Date of transaction

17 January 2003

11. Date company informed

21 January 2003

12. Total holding following this notification

8,291,273

13. Total percentage holding of issued class following this notification

4.26%

14. Any additional information



15. Name of contact and telephone number for queries

AJ Brown

16. Name of authorised company official responsible for making this
notification

AJ Brown

Date of notification 23 January 2003


This information is provided by RNS
The company news service from the London Stock Exchange
END

HOLQXLFLXFBLBBK

Lots of big sales today. Is it something someone said?

Well good old SVB going down. I have done some research and as I understand it the worries that hold this back have little substance. They have terribly bothched the ADP announcement. Syndicate 1212 the one with the alleged blackhole was the recipient of the cover, but for some reason two pertinent facts were missed off, namely how much did the ADP cost and at what level did it come into effect in respect of the last announced reserve position. Well having blown it they could not clarify the position because they are too close to the results! I would expect that there is no black hole and that the cost of the coverage is not great.

LONDON (AFX) - SVB Holdings PLC said The 2003 year of account has started
well, with an average rate increase across both syndicates in January and
February of 21 pct, and Specialty business achieving 39 pct.
According to SVB Syndicates Ltd, the Lloyd's managing agency owned by SVB
Holdings, all syndicates are forecast to produce profits in excess of 10 pct for
the 2002 year of account, assuming a normal loss development pattern.
Regarding the syndicates's performance in the 2001 year of account, SVB
Holdings said that, excluding the exceptional losses of Sept 11, these
syndicates are forecasting profits.


Is this good, bad or indifferent?

Fantastic knews on the fund raising, this should now fly