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EMI Group said it had withdrawn its offer for Time Warner recorded music business, saying it was no longer possible to reach an agreement on acceptable terms. Amlin British insurer which operates in the Lloyds of London insurance market said the outlook for underwriting in 2004 was "good" as it posted a 18 percent to 743 million pounds rise in gross written premiums for the first nine months. of 2003 Virgin Express Belgian-based no-frills airline reported a net profit of 1.7 million euros for the third quarter, down from 4.5 million euros the previous year. Revenues slipped eight percent to 62.1 million euros, while operating profit came in at 1.87 million euros, down from 4.45 million euros. UBC Business Media first half loss narrows. Glaxo: A US federal appeals court on Friday rejected the drug-maker's bid to salvage patent protection for its antibiotic Augmentin, once its second-biggest selling product.INVENSYS The engineer struggling under 1.6 billion pounds in net debt could run out of cash by next June if its programme to sell non-core assets fails, British house prices edged up again in November and a crash in 2004 is highly unlikely even though interest rates are likely to rise further

Calendar: United Kingdom	United States (GMT)	Europe & World (GMT
Innovation Group (F), Merchant Retail (I), RM (F), UBC Media Group (I), Workspace Group (Q2), Aggreko (F)		Skandia (Q3) 07.00 EMU Oct German Import Price Index m/m 0.2% exp

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11/21: Didn't decline near enough to confirm wave (iii) down today, and the divergence with the technicals and price say something else is happening.
There are two counts, and either should be confirmed on monday.
The first is the red impulse down, with today's action being a minor degree wave ii of the larger (iii) down. If true, we drop rapidly on monday, and a 200+ pt decline would not be surprising.
The other is bullish near term, but still says the top is in. The pattern for both the ending diagonal and the decline now fits quite nicely as shown by the gray leading diagonal.
By this count we have completed, or nearly completed wave 5 and (1) down. If true we rally on monday with the likely extent being the 9750 area. The technical divergences with price support this count for now.
Next week is likely to be a light volume affair with the thanksgiving holiday. Thus a sloppy, light volume rally over next week would fit well with a wave (2) correction here.
No reason here to cover shorts yet, and no reason to do anything other than wait for monday's action to confirm one of the counts..


Updated 11/21 for Monday's market.
Key DOW Levels for 11/24
UP Above 9,650
DN Below 9,580

Consolidating
Dow trades sideways, forms tight consolidation at lows.

From prior commentary, "...The fact that the index has formed a wide range at the lows of the recent downmove implies weakness in the medium term...we could see further trading range movement before a break either way is seen..."
The Dow got a light break of 9,600 this morning, but pulled back slightly and proceeded to trade strictly sideways the remainder of the session, as seen in the 15 Minute Chart.

Looking at the 15 and 60 Minute Charts show that the Dow has now widened the large trading range into an expanding pattern. The index has formed a tight consolidation just above the lower boundary of the expanding range, which we will watch closely for Monday's market. The fact that we are consolidating at the low of the wider range is clearly bearish, and we need to be ready to Short at the lower boundary.

If the consolidation is broken to the upside, that will also be significant, as it will imply sufficient strength to overcome the prevailing negative technical pattern. Therefore an upside break from the consolidation at 9,650 will likely spark a move higher toward the upper boundary of the range at 9,750. Watch the consolidation boundaries for direction Monday. Our expectation is to see a downside break at 9,580.

Short Term Dow

Short term, the Dow has formed a tight triangle consolidation at the lows of the 5 Minute Chart. A downside break is implied, but watch both the upper and lower boundaries for a break Monday morning. Watch 9,650 up, and 9,600 down for short term direction.

Medium Term Dow

In the medium term, we entered the market Short this morning at 9,600, but took a 20 point loss as we were stopped out. No other trades were entered and we are still out of the market. Watch 9,650 up, and 9,580 down, with 20 point stops.

NASDAQ & S&P

The NASDAQ and S&P each traded sideways throughout the session, mirroring the Dow's activity. The tight consolidations that have formed at the lows will be key to Monday's trading. *

Summary

The Dow traded sideways the entire session, forming a tight consolidation at the lows. The index is sitting on the lower boundary of the wide expanding range, which we will watch closely Monday. Watch 9,650 up, and 9,580 down


MON FTSE PP

R2 4340
R1 4330
PP 4313
S1 4302
S2 4286

Close was above Fri pp after gaining 2.4pts in the auction!

WEEKLY FTSE PP

R2 4455
R1 4387
PP 4329
S1 4261
S2 4203

Close was below the weekly s1!

2 day ftse chart trying to brk outat 4320 with an uptrend forming off Thu lows, brk to downside at 4305, tight range! For the longer term its all about 4280!

The fundamentals

The past week the stock market sold off without any major bad earnings or economic news. It looks like investors just want to take profit even with some good news. For the week, Dow closed down 140 points at 9628.53. Nasdaq is down 36.38 at 1893.88.

The three strongest groups for the week are: silver, sporting goods stores and consumer services. The three worst performing groups are: drug delivery, specialized health services and jewelry stores.

Most of the economic news for the past week are either in line or better than expected. HPQ?s quarterly revenue and earnings are better than the analysts estimate.

Going into this week, we have GDP-prelimary for Q3, consumer confidence for November, existing home sales for October on Tuesday, personal income for October, Durable goods order for October, Michigan sentiments for November and initial claims on Wednesday.

The technicals.

At the end of the week, Dow closed at 9628.53, above the 50-month ema of 9210.87, 200-week ema of 9264.88 and below 50 day ema of 9644. The monthly and weekly Dow charts are still bullish. The daily chart of Dow is a little bearish. The next daily support for Dow is 9500. The resistance for Dow is 9644 and 9800.

On the monthly chart, Nasdaq closed at 1893.9, at the 50 month ema of 1893, above 200-week ema of 1891 and below the 50 day ema of 1893. The weekly and monthly charts are still bullish. The daily chart is a little bearish. The daily support for Nasdaq is 1880. The resistance for Nasdaq is 1917.

VIX closed the week at 18.98. The next resistance for VIX is 19.6 and the support for VIX is 18.2. VXN closed the week at 29.08. The next resistance for VXN is 30.62 and the support for VXN is 27.5. On Monday, the VIX and VXN might go lower. Since both VIX and VXN are too close to 50 ema, it is still hard to tell whether they would rebound at 50 day ema..

The setup.

Friday?s close tells us that the market might go higher on Monday morning. In order for the market to go higher in the intermediate term, the market has to have follow-through days on the upside on the closing basis. Over the last 11 trading days, the market did not follow through on previous us days. Right now, the market still has down side momentum. A few follow through days with heavy volume might change the momentum.

Right now, it is important to keep options open since the market could go either way in the short term, depending on how the market behaves over the next few trading days. A close on Nasdaq below 1980 is very bearish for the market

Thanks Zarif, Morning all

Morning all and thank you for your contribution.

Morning all,

If Croc thinks there's a good chance of the FTSE
testing 4250, then I can't find a compelling reason
to take out any new position longs at this point.

With the FTSE at 4350, it may be worth considering
a FTSE short.

Melnibone

Morning all

Just received some news on one of my long term high risk shares. (Small holding in value, although not in quantity!)

BLLM are consolidating their shares to 1 for 100 held. With a current share price at less than 0.5p and a spread varying between 25-50% should help the share price & spread. Must remember to send my voting papers off.

mornin all...D. :-))

Morning Douggie,
Taken 1.25p from Invensys this morning, good start to the week

EMI could now be a takeover target itself after failing in its bid with Time Warner.

One of my big disappointments AGP (Long term investment a few years ago, and holding currently worth less than the dealing charges!) has announced results a lot better than I expected!

Sales - 10.03 mln stg vs 8.42 mln

Pretax profit before exceptionals - 350,000 stg vs loss 14.75 mln

Pretax profit - 1.03 mln stg vs loss of 37.81 mln

EPS - 3.96 pence vs loss per share 1,556.5

And the share price drops even more......

Just thought I would move this ttt!
- too many posts on last weeks thread today!

CYH lookin healthier

Looks like some very heavy selling today at ULG. Directors or institutions dumping stock? Downward curve has been steepening lately. Anyone know anything?

jzl

Thanks Little women!

Juzzle - I don't think its Directors as they would have to give notifiacation after doing it. But I tried to access the web site to find out about the company and it's currently not available!

Not so long ago they sold shares at 3 which was oversubscribed. If I had bought the share and watched it go down, and continue down, I would consider getting out and cutting my losses. Perhaps that's whats going on.

LW - Explanatory RNS would presumably not yet need to have appeared? Especially if more trades yet to show. Announcement may yet follow perhaps.

Tomorrows results.
Enterprise Inns (F) PBT 169m exp. AbacGroup (F),
Acambis (Q3), Autologic Holdings (Q3), Care U.K (F). Character Group (F), De La Rue (I), Gen(I), ICAP (F), Intec Telecom Systems (F), Jarvis (I), Kingston Communications (I), London Merchant Securities (I), New Look (I), Quintain Estates & Dev (I), Signet Group (Q3), South Staffordshire (I), TBI (I), Topps Tiles (F), Tribal Group (I)
Tesco Q3 Sales

09.30 3rd Quarter Business Investment q/q
09.30 Oct Car Production 3m y/y

ETL has suddenly lost its support & dropped heavily after being slightly up most of the day!

This is an interesting end to the day.

If the S@P can break through the 1049/1050 area,
it should initiate some short covering and lead
to higher prices.

Could be good for the FTSE if it happens.

Bet it's just teasing though. ;-)

Melnibone

Certainly far more positive today - the 'blue' in evidence was
quite a shock, but a nice one! Agreed BTW on Croc's comments on
LLOY got to be due a come-back in the next few weeks/months,
going fairly well today but way behind HBOS rise.

little woman - ETL (long term - I hope) dropped today but EZJ (again long term) has helped to keep the level of my pot reasonable. Also helped along a bit by BARC/LLOY & SHEL.