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US Futures roar ahead on news of Saddam capture Safeway, Morrison agrees a new three billion pound bid for rival Safeway to challenge for third position in the supermarket sector. This works out at 283p a share. Aggreko which rents out power generators, said its second half performance had been as expected and it anticipated its full year performance would meet forecasts. The company also announced further reorganisation and restructuring of its European and North American businesses. Psion said on Monday it expected group financial results for 2003 to be in line with management's expectations.The firm said it was generating cash and its net cash position at the end of November stood at 16.6 million pounds after paying 17.4 million to purchase additional shares in Symbian. George Wimpey The UK's biggest housebuilder said on Monday it expected group results for 2003 at the top end of market expectations, as it continued to ride a housing market boom in the UK. "We will enter 2004 with healthy order books although the US market is expected to be weaker in 2004 Inchcape said it expected profits for the year to be slightly ahead of current market consensus of 127.7 million pounds Lloyds TSB The UK's fifth-biggest bank, said on Monday that full-year trading would be in line with analysts' forecasts. The bank's asset quality remains good, Lloyds said in a statement.

Calendar: United Kingdom	United States (GMT)	Europe & World (GMT
Aggreko (Trading Statement) Inchcape (Trading Statement) George Wimpey (Trading Statement) LloydsTSB (Trading Statement)AWG PLC return of capital, 40 redeemable shares for 1 ordinary share held, ex date	Oracle, 13.30 Dec NY Fed Manufacturing, 41.01% prev. 18.00 Dec NAHB Housing Market Index, 69.0% prev.	Club Med, Zodiac, H&M,

Croc@SnappyTrader.com  WWW.SnappyTrader.com

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Re Trading Thoughts For The Week Ahead 'header': Date needs updating, Croc.
The festive season plays tricks on all of us! Cheers.

As you say Croc, capture of Saddam should give a bounce.
I wonder how much the initial mark-up will be on Monday
morning?
I can't imagine there being many sellers to start
with. The weaker Bears who held shorts open for the weekend
will help to fuel the rise as they cover.

There are going to be a lot of people looking to short this
bounce, myself included, so when it starts to topple I wouldn't
be surprised to see the trend supports give way.

As it also the last week of full trading, would I be correct in
saying that this week will be when some Funds and Institutions will be
looking to lock in some year end profits as well as selling some
underperformers for Tax reasons?
If so, they'll wait for the higher prices and then help to fuel
the decline along with the normal traders who are taking long profits
and reversing into short positions.

Melnibone.

Evening all

I think we should be a lot more positive about the future. With the news from Iraq, the people there should finally be able to rebuild thier country and move on, without any fear that Saddam may reappear. (And hopefully be too busy to be terrorists anymore!) Plus with most of the money for rebuilding which will be awarded to US companies who will inturn contract the work to UK companies (as the US companies will be too scared to actually go to Iraq to do the work!) and UK companies should do very nicely out of it - thank you very much!

Melnibone - I'm afraid you will not be correct in saying that "this week will be when some Funds and Institutions will be looking to lock in some year end profits as well as selling some underperformers for Tax reasons?" - as all companies, funds & institutions paid Tax accordinging to the Govt/IR tax year and therefore the deadline is 5th April 2004 which is the tax year end!

littlewoman, isn't the tax year end for US end of Dec?

Updated 12/12 for Monday's market.
Key DOW Levels for 12/15
UP Above 10,075
DN Below 9,900

Continued Uptrend
Dow continues steady push higher, ends day with 34 point gain.

From prior commentary, "...The index continues to push higher within the wide, upward-sloping range...Look for the index to continue higher within the range for tomorrow's market..."
The Dow opened the session lower this morning, but got a v-bottom reversal off the lows that sparked a steady rise the remainder of the session, seen in the 15 Minute Chart. The Dow closed above the 10,000 mark for the second straight session and continues to close in on the upper boundary of the wide, upward-sloping trading range, seen in the 60 Minute Chart.

Look for the Dow to continue higher toward the upper boundary of the range until either a break or bounce of the upper line is seen. That is where the decision will be made; An upside break through the upper boundary of the range at 10,075 will likely spark an even greater advance, while a downside reversal off the upper line will mark the beginning of a likely decline back toward the lower boundary of the range. A downside break through 10,000 will likely fuel such a move.

Short Term Dow

Short term, the Dow has formed a clear trend line beneath the lows of the 1 Minute Chart. A downside break of the line at 10,040 will make for weakness tomorrow morning. Otherwise, look for further strength above the line in the short term.

Medium Term Dow

In the medium term, we entered the market Long at 9,971 and are still in the position. We will move stops up to 10,000 for tomorrow's market to lock in some profit on a pullback. We will stay Long above 10,075, but will wait for Shorts until 9,900 is crossed to the downside, using 20 point stops.

NASDAQ & S&P

The NASDAQ and S&P trended slowly higher off the day's lows, ending the session at the day's highs. Look for further strength Monday, as each index has formed consolidations at the highs. *

Summary

The Dow moved higher off the day's lows, pushing and holding back above the 10,000. The index will likely continue trending higher toward the upper boundary of the wide, sloping range. A break or bounce at the upper boundary will be key.





MONDAY FTSE PP

R2 4385
R1 4366
PP 4348
S1 4329
S2 4311

Fri close on R2 after gaining2.8pts in the auction!

WEEKLY FTSE PP

R2 4451
R1 4399
PP 4356
S1 4304
S2 4261

Close was below the weekly pp!

For next week still in the trading range, uptrend still intact at 4430 with 4280 the next level! Uptrend seems to be targeting 4450 which is weekly R2 if the 83%(not my fig) chance of the Xmas rally begins! 2 day ftse chart in an uptrend off Thu low, brk of uptrend at 4335, continuation of trend targeting 4380 with a clear brk of Fri res at 4365 imho!

(Written Fri/All bets off:)





Cantors SL hitfor remainder 20% of ftse short, so only small pos thank god!
So the lucky longs close for a profit, short run for cover and the mugs chase, will be an interesting morning!

Good morning all. Thanks Croc & TP. Looks as if today will be interesting on the markets with a higher opening and possibly a pullback later. I feel we may see figures approaching DOW 10500 and FTSE 4500 today.

Druid-be careful, they,ve had a day and a half to digestthe news, euphoria yes but for how long, if it had ahppened on a weekday then pos imho!

Morning all :-)

mornin all :-))

TP -Thanks - Agreed - that's why I mentioned a pullback later and perhaps 10.5k and 4.5k may be a bit on the high side.

Hi little woman,

I'm talking about the US for end of year closing
and tax losses, where the US
markets go then the UK will follow.

When we are talking finance then I'm afraid that
the UK is just one of the States of the USA.

Melnibone.

Everything seems to have opened up too high.
Who is going to buy at a premium for a short
lived sentiment bounce?

Volume doesn't seem to be overly high to me,
and we don't seem to want to go above 4400.

I still think that people are waiting to sell,
not buy.

Melnibone.

Sorry everyone - I keep forgetting we don't have independant thought in the UK.

Yes - volumes are low. It looks like people aren't sure what to do.... to wait and sell, or buy more!

Hi little woman,

I hope I'm not coming across as a pessimist here,
I'm not trying to argue with you, just putting
my view across.:-)

I agree, it is irksome to just follow another country
like a little lapdog, but we must face facts.
Our GDP isn't in the same league as the USA.

Doesn't California on its own come somewhere near
our financial status? Don't quote me on it, but I
think that it is one of the world's biggest economies
in it's own right and as it is just one state then
where does the UK stand in relation to the USA as a whole?

We've got to remember that we're talking money, not
politics and national pride.

I agree that it is annoying, but we have to accept it
and make our financial decisions on that basis.

Melnibone.

:-) No I'm not arguing - hard to show irony on BB!

A lot of the people out there that had been predicting a fall in the market since August, seem to have recently changed their view and become more positive. I've decided I prefer the positive! (Life is too depressing otherwise)

I agree that we are talking money, but I think the Bulls are currently making more money than the Bears, and although the bears every so often make a inroad back, I don't think overall they are not suceeding.

:-) Thanks for the reply little woman.
Stay positive, life is far more important than boring
old money.

I bet LLOY is bringing a smile to your face this morning.:-))

Melnibone.

Yes, but not before time! (But my PTI is currently showing profit of 13% - stop loss in place, and I picked up some PIC on Thur which is showing a profit of 7% - put a sell in place if it hits 10% & TGM is also in profit, but as this is not a volatile as the others I'll sit on them!)

If you take a rough figure as 4 points on the FTSE
for every 1 point on the S@P, then the FTSE is now
on par with the S@P future which is around 1086.

Where we go now will depend on whether the US takes
the considerable gap open as profits, or pushes on
in a Saddam euphoria, ignoring the fact that the economics,
(low interest rates, falling dollar, increasing negative
balance of payments), haven't actually changed.

Edit: Doh! just had to edit this post. I was thinking of
the 10 point rise on the S@P and put 10 points rise for the
FTSE for 1 point rise on the S@P.
Should of course be 4 points rise on the FTSE for 1 on the S@P.
Teach me to wake up and engage brain before posting.

Melnibone.

Ahhhhhhhhhhhhh, but when did the American people ever pay attention to facts!