Crocodile
- 03 Jan 2004 20:12
Premarket Futures |
FTSE -10 |
DAX +10 |
DOW +42 |
S&P +3.4 |
Nasdaq +4 |
News: |
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The FTSE 100 index is expected to dip following Fridays loss
on Wall Street...
Europe's largest media advertising buyer Aegis said it was
trading in line with expectations and was expecting an improvement in the
media marketing environment
Vodaphone jut raised to
outperform
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Calendar:
United Kingdom |
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United States
(GMT) |
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Europe & World (GMT |
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09.30 Dec CIPS Construction PMI
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Auto Sales Dec 5.7M
Truck Sales Dec 8.0M
15.00 Nov Construction Spending m/m 0.5% exp.
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D07.00 Nov German Retail Sales m/m 0.2% exp.
11.00
Oct New Industrial Orders
11.00 Dec Flash CPI 2.1% exp.
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Melnibone
- 04 Jan 2004 17:46
- 4 of 35
Good evening all,
Just working my FTSE levels out for tomorrow.
Even if the uptrend continues,we are due a swing low
at least this week.
We haven't had one since the middle of December
at 4312.
Since the last red candle on the 16Dec at 4329,
we have had a succession of higher/equal highs and
higher/equal lows on light volume.
Since the volume dropped in Xmas week, I would say that
a lot of folk stopped trading at approx 4400.
This would be my initial target for any correction to enable
traders that got left behind to rejoin the trend without
buying in higher and missing out on 100 points.
4400 is also a round figure support level.
Have a look at the following 3 month chart to check
out my views. We may go lower and reverse the trend
but I would prefer to see a lower swing low before
going heavily short.
Melnibone.
daviddavid
- 04 Jan 2004 18:00
- 5 of 35
watch HYD it would seem.
Munnie
- 04 Jan 2004 22:01
- 7 of 35
Hey CROC !!! 'Sunday Mail' and 'Mail On Sunday' are totally different papers.
(Sunday Mail exists in Scotland, maybe unknown in your land ?)
Many must be confused, so maybe you should correct it...
before they sue you ;o)
ThePlayboy
- 05 Jan 2004 07:15
- 8 of 35
MONDAYS FTSE PP
R2 4543
R1 4527
PP 4502
S1 4485
S2 4248
Close was above Fri r2 after gaining 1.5pts in the auction!
WEEKLY FTSE PP
R2 4572
R1 4541
PP 4487
S1 4456
S2 4402
2 day ftse chart targeteting 4540 for pos a bullish Monday, brk of uptrend at 4500! (edit-gap thru TL on open)
Pos of some weakness next week imho due to very over bought levels!
ThePlayboy
- 05 Jan 2004 07:15
- 9 of 35
Updated 1/2 for Monday's market.
Key DOW Levels for 1/5
UP Above 10,450
DN Below 10,375
Giant Reversal
Dow opens session higher, reverses to end day lower.
From prior commentary, "...The fact that the index continues to hold above 10,400 and has formed a bullish consolidation hints at further upside movement...while a break below 10,400 will mark weakness for Friday's market..."
The Dow began 2004 on a solid note, as the index raced out to an 85 point gain early in the session. However, the index stalled at the highs and eventually unleashed a sharp reversal to the downside, resulting in a 140 point swing off the highs of the session, seen in the 15 and 60 Minute Charts.
Moreover, the reversal caused a downside break of the lower trend line of the major upward-sloping channel that has formed throughout the better part of December, seen in the 60 Minute Chart. The downside break at 10,440 implies a likely retracement in the medium term, which is quite overdue given the recent rise in the market.
Look for the index to begin trending lower in the medium term, especially if the Dow continues to hold beneath 10,450. Otherwise, an upside break through 10,450 will likely mark another move higher toward recent highs, forming a wide trading range at the highs of the current upmove.
Short Term Dow
Short term, the Dow may be forming a lower high beneath 10,425, seen in the 5 Minute Chart, which implies weakness Monday morning. A break below 10,385 will indicate a likely push lower for Monday's Open.
Medium Term Dow
In the medium term, we stopped out of Longs late in the session at 10,400 today, giving us a solid gain of 210 points for our prior trade. We entered the Dow Short at 10,400 today, but stopped out with a 20 point loss. We are out of the market and will watch 10,375 down, and 10,450 up, with 20 point stops.
NASDAQ & S&P
The NASDAQ and S&P sold off the day's highs today, completing a sharp reversal for the day. Each index got a downside break of its lower channel boundary, which implies further weakness tomorrow. Continue to watch the channels. *
Summary
The Dow began the session sharp, as the index pushed higher at the Open. However, a solid reversal brought the index lower to the Close, which ended up losing 47 points for the session. Given that the lower trend line of the major channel has been violated, further downside movement is likely in the medium term, especially if the Dow keeps below 10,450.
Crocodile
- 05 Jan 2004 08:00
- 10 of 35
Morning all :-)
ThePlayboy
- 05 Jan 2004 08:10
- 11 of 35
Strong ftse open even with considering DJ futs up from Fri close!
Druid2
- 05 Jan 2004 08:23
- 12 of 35
Morning all. ETL looking good this morning.
Douggie
- 05 Jan 2004 09:01
- 14 of 35
mornin all, Off Center Parcs grandchildren given extra week off now instead of spring! :-((
vasey
- 05 Jan 2004 09:41
- 17 of 35
well done on the ETL, lw!
Melnibone
- 05 Jan 2004 11:39
- 20 of 35
A belated good morning,
not traded yet today, have been MOT'ing one of our cars.
All sorted and passed. :-)
Having a struggle to stop myself going against the trend
and shorting at the moment.
I would prefer a higher swing low and go long, staying with
the trend.
Been watching GSK as a possible long if we retrace a bit, but I
think that there may be a possibility of a head and shoulders
forming over the past 3 months.
Neckline at 1250 and shoulders at 1300.
Anyone got a view?
Melnibone.
Fundamentalist
- 05 Jan 2004 11:50
- 22 of 35
Excuse the charting ignorance, but if GSk has formed a head and shoulders, what does that mean for the expected direction of the price?