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Traders Thread - Tuesday 27th January (ARM)
Crocodile - 26 Jan 2004 21:44
| UK PreMarket Futures | FTSE +26 | DAX +40 | DOW -20 | S&P -2.4 | Nasdaq -5.5 |
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US stock's rally as investors jump back in after last week's declines to send the Dow industrials to it's highest close in more than 2-1/2 year'sFKI to close eight loss-making units: Facing a possible cut to its debt ratings, said on it would close eight loss-making businesses and targeted four more businesses for sale after completing a strategic review. The company said actions taken in the past plus the strategic review would generate net 110 million pounds in additional cash in 2003/04 and the next three years and have total exceptional costs of 68 million pounds, of which 19 million is a cash cost. Marconi gave a cautious market outlook despite third quarter sales rising five percent on the preceding three months. Group sales rose to 408 million pounds in the three months to December 31 from 389 million in the second quarter. ARM Holdings reported fourth-quarter results at the top end of market expectations and said activity levels indicated more favourable trading conditions in 2004. ARM said in a statement it made 8.9 million pounds pre-tax profit in the three months to end-December, on revenues of 34.0 million pounds. Analysts' forecasts centred on 7.3 million pounds and 32.8 million pounds respectively. They said the company is now cash generative. Kesa Electricals Europe's third largest electrical retailer, revealed weak sales over the Christmas period in Darty its its French Electrical store chain. In contrast UK's Comet, also owned by Kesa, achieved 3.9 percent growth on the same basis, better than analysts had predicted. In the third quarter period up to November 1, Darty's like-for-like sales had been up 4.7 percent while Comet's were up 3.1 percent. Kesa said gross profit margin was slightly reduced but it was confident of delivering full year results in March in line with market expectations. Wembley Plc said it had agreed to an all-cash takeover bid from MGM MIRAGE valuing the UK gaming firm at about 270 million pounds. Shareholders will receive 750 pence in cash per Wembley Share |
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Arm Holdings (F) PBT 26.9m exp, Games Workshop (I), Kensington Group (F), NDS Group (F), Porvair (F), Home Entertainment (I) Euromoney (AGM), Abacus Group (AGM) 11.00 CBI Quarterly Industrial Trends Survey |
Amazon (Q4), Electronic Arts (Q3), Merck (Q4), RJ Reynolds (Q4), Xerox (Q4), CSX (Q4), Caterpillar (Q4), E.I du Pont de Nemours and (Q4), Lockheed Martin (Q4), Marathon Oil (Q4), Xerox (Q4), R.J. Reynolds Tobacco Holdings (Q4), Pepsi Bottling Group (Q4), Broadcom (Q4), Quest Diagnostics (Q4), Countrywide Financial (Q4), Cummins (Q4), Dow Jones and (Q4), Freddie Mac (Q4), Merck & (Q4), NCR (Q4), The New York Times (Q4), Raytheon (Q4), SBC communications (Q4), Zions BanCorp (Q4) 15.00 Jan consumer confidence 97.2 exp. 23.30 ABC/Money consumer confidence (25/01) |
Heidelberger Druckmaschinen AG DE 09.00 Jan German IFO Expectations 110.0 exp. |
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ThePlayboy
- 27 Jan 2004 07:16
- 4 of 35
Key DOW Levels for 1/27
UP Current Trend
DN Below 10,660
Rally
Dow breaks consolidation to upside, rallies to the Close.
From prior commentary, "...the index is very likely to remain within the current overall uptrend that began in late November...Look for a continuation lower if 10,500 is breached Monday. Otherwise, look for continued movement within the given range..."
The Dow opened the session higher this morning, but paused to form a tight intraday consolidation at the highs, seen in the 5 Minute Chart. An upside break from the consolidation led to a solid rally on the afternoon, netting 134 point gain for the day, as seen in the 15 Minute Chart.
The rally also caused a break through 10,660, which implied continued strength for the Dow. If the index can continue to hold above this level tomorrow, there could be a continuation to the upside. However, a break back below 10,660 could make for another pull-back within the overall uptrend.
Short Term Dow
Short term, the Dow has formed a clear trend line beneath the lows of the late-day rally, seen in the 1 Minute Chart. A downside break of the line at 10,690 will make for weakness tomorrow morning.
Medium Term Dow
In the medium term, we covered Shorts this morning at 10,600, giving us a breakeven trade. We later entered the Dow Long at 10,660 and are still in the market. We will keep stops at the entry for tomorrow's market, and will look for Shorts below 10,660, with 20 point stops.
NASDAQ & S&P
The NASDAQ and S&P each got upside breaks from intraday consolidations, which sparked a solid push higher to the Close. Look for a continuation pattern to form to indicate continued strength. *
Summary
The Dow rallied strongly out of the consolidation today, sparking a three-digit gain for the session. Look for further strength if the index can hold above 10,660. Otherwise, a break back below this level could spark weakness.
ThePlayboy
- 27 Jan 2004 07:18
- 5 of 35
r2 4503
r1 4474
pp 4454
s1 4425
s2 4404
ftse closed below Mon pp after gaining 3.5pts in the auction! 2 day ftse chart tricky due to flatish nature, still in dowtrend targeting my weekly tgt of 4420, unless brk out of downtrend at 4455 to tgt 4480 imho!
edit nr gap up to my tgt, question is will it hold or ftse get hit as always?
Crocodile - 27 Jan 2004 07:56 - 6 of 35
little woman
- 27 Jan 2004 08:16
- 7 of 35
A positive statement the day before for ex div. (until you get to the last paragraph!)
FKI STRENGTHENS POSITION FOR THE FUTURE
FKI announces today output from the strategic review which includes an increased
focus on five major businesses. In addition it outlines a programme of business
closures and disposals, asset write downs and surplus property sales which will
generate significant cash, enhancing the Group's prospects for development. Key
points arising are as follows:
FKI will remain a diversified engineering group
Strategy will be led from the centre with active management of the portfolio
Group will be driven by value-based metrics, principally return on
invested capital
5 key businesses (Bridon; Crosby; Logistex; Brush Electrical Machines;
Truth and Wright Products) identified as having a significant influence on
group performance, accounting for 75% of invested capital
3 emerging businesses (Bristol Babcock; FKI Switchgear; DeWind)
identified with good growth potential
Closure of 8 loss-making activities (turnover 50m) - 3 year cash payback
4 businesses being targeted for sale (turnover 90m, net assets 34m)
Actions taken and specific actions from strategy review will
- generate a net 110m of additional cash in 2003/04 and the next three
years, of which 65m already achieved
- have total profit and loss exceptional closure costs, asset and
goodwill write-offs, and impairment totalling 68m
(of which 19m is cash cost)
Paul Heiden, Chief Executive, commented
'We have conducted a thorough strategic review which has involved input from
management in all operations. There will be key changes to the way in which the
Group is run. Strategy will be led from from the centre with increased focus on
improved business planning, more rigorous risk management and maximising the
value of the Group as a whole. As a result, the Group will be more financially
robust and better able to take advantage of opportunities when markets improve.
Five major businesses have been identified which together with three emerging
businesses account for 80% of invested capital and will be key areas of focus.
In addition, there are a number of smaller businesses which will continue to be
managed to maximise value. Eight activities will be closed shortly and four
businesses are being targeted for sale.
As stated at the time of the interim report, markets remain difficult and
continue to affect performance, and changing exchange rates have also impacted
results. Current trading remains difficult, especially in Logistex where orders
continue to be delayed. The recent further weakening of the US dollar is
expected to impact full year profit by about 5m and reduce net debt by 20m.
However, subject to the above, overall operating performance is currently
expected to be in line with market expectations.'
little woman
- 27 Jan 2004 08:19
- 8 of 35
Well so PB the FTSE is getting hit again, the big question is will it continue as it did yesterday.
ThePlayboy
- 27 Jan 2004 08:22
- 9 of 35
little woman
- 27 Jan 2004 08:25
- 10 of 35
ThePlayboy
- 27 Jan 2004 08:31
- 11 of 35
little woman
- 27 Jan 2004 08:33
- 12 of 35
Melnibone - 27 Jan 2004 08:53 - 13 of 35
Muted response from the FTSE to the US highs yesterday.
I agree with TP that 4480 is the key. As I posted last night
this is the Fri/Mon highs.
I'm beginning to wonder if stocks are churning at the moment as
people sell into any rallys.
Melnibone.
Melnibone - 27 Jan 2004 09:33 - 14 of 35
the SHEL profits on that last bounce up and thus
reduced my long exposure. It really isn't as strong
as I expected.
If US takes profits today, and the FTSE hasn't broken
4480 before it does, then today could actually end up
negative.
Melnibone.
Melnibone - 27 Jan 2004 10:10 - 15 of 35
Sold last of the longs when FTSE hit R1 and bounced back.
Now flat looking for possible shorts.
Melnibone.
little woman
- 27 Jan 2004 10:21
- 16 of 35
Taken a small short DJ @10691, but if it drops before US open may close.
little woman
- 27 Jan 2004 10:41
- 17 of 35
chartist2004
- 27 Jan 2004 10:49
- 18 of 35
little woman
- 27 Jan 2004 11:31
- 19 of 35
little woman
- 27 Jan 2004 12:00
- 20 of 35
chartist2004
- 27 Jan 2004 12:00
- 21 of 35
Was long @ 137 x 50 p/p was stopped out @ 134.5. Went long again @ 134 @ 150 p/p Closed @ 135.75 finished up + 200 inc 62.50 loss. :o) thats good 4 me!
Cheers Mike...
little woman
- 27 Jan 2004 12:01
- 22 of 35
little woman
- 27 Jan 2004 14:06
- 23 of 35
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