What the Sunday Newpapers say

SUNDAY TIMES - Virgin Mobile and Premier Foods floats in doubt - Abbey National is to 'take banking to the people' as part of a radical shake-up of the group's branch network - Britannic in talks to buy Cornhill Life from Allianz for an estimated 150 million - VT Group expected to announce it will take a significant equity stake in Air Tanker, the consortium bidding to supply new tanker aircraft to the RAF - Hellman and Friedman of US emerges as a potential rival to WPP Group in the 1.5 billion auction of Grey Global - Capital Radio and GWR have held talks aimed at creating an 800 million media giant - L&G Ventures in talks to buy the Total Fitness chain for 80-100 million - Duke Street Capital is providing 100 million to help fund expansion of its Esporta operations - Kuwait to sell its Q8 petrol pump operations - Arlington Securities sets up a 500 million fund to invest in the residential sectorInside the City: - Cash is king for the big fund groups - If markets do fall Intercontinental Hotels Group is one to acquire ahead of the bounce.Citywire Market Mole: - Gartmore Growth Opportunities locks in some profits at ThorntonsJudgment Day: - Should you buy shares in Virgin Mobile? More interesting at a lower levelOther comment: - Arsenal has set up a multi-million pound tax dodge for its players and manager - Some bread sold in Britain's supermarkets contains is sol unhealthy that eating three slices has more fat than a Mars bar - Is William Morrison running down Safeway stores it must sell? - Lord Maclaurin, chairman of Vodafone, admits that the mobile phone giant has failed the City and must rebuild relations with investors - Interview Lord Marshall, stepping down as chairman of British Airways - Investors urged to hang on to Marks & Spencer by the experts

SUNDAY TELEGRAPH- Sir Richard Branson unlikely to proceed with float of Virgin Mobile if investors fail to endorse his valuation of the company - BAE Systems and Thales have been given another eight months to agree the terms of the multi-billion pound programme to build the Royal navy's two new aircraft carriers - Qualcomm of US and American Airlines link up in-flight calls and e-mails - NTL us set to puts its broadcast business up for sale within the next few months with a price tag of about 1 billionEquity View: - Buy HBOS at 672.5p - Keep buying BOC Group at 914p - Buy Deltex at 26.5p - Buy Cryptologic at 825p - Umeco worth holding long term at 350.5p - Keep selling JD Wetherspoon at 264.25p - Worth holding Great Portland Estates at 272.5p (Look Who's Trading) Taking Stock with Edmond Jackson: - Buying unquoted shares: are the tax breaks worth the risk? (Ruegg and Co, Dunedin Enterprise)Other comment: - Mr Philip Hampton, who takes over as chairman of Sainsbury tomorrow, plans a swift cull of non executives - Stuart Rose is considering legal action against Goldman Sachs and warns that Marks & Spencer sales will be sluggish for the current financial year to next March - Interview Mr David Varney, who will run the government's new Revenue & Customs Agency - Interview Fred Delluca of the Subway sandwich chain - Revealed: how Comet salesmen con customers.

The Deddington News Letter - Town Hall lease runs out in 2006. Deddington Charity estates propose to extend lease for a further 20 years. However concerns still exist over disabled access to a listed building. - Car parking continues to cause major problems. PC proposes to create a Parking Tsar with sweeping powers to clean up the mess. - Deddington Players planning for Pantomime 20~22 Jan 2005. Watch out for special ticket deals nearer the time.

OBSERVER  - NTL and Telewest communications are being urged by shareholders to kick off merger negotiations this autumn to form a company with a market value of $7 billion - Mr Gerald Ronson is ready to join the bidding war for Minerva - DFS founder Lord Kirkam hopes to unveil a recommended offer for the furniture business early this week with a raised price of 445p a shareThrog Street: - Still no hard case for Shell SABMiller still worth watching GlaxoSmithKline: There is no guarantee that things wont get worseOther comment: - HBOS goes for big push down under Is Warren Buffett about to walk all over the London insurance market? Mammon interview Dawne Thompson of Camelot

MAIL ON SUNDAY - Entertainment Rights signs up Postman Pat for a new BBC TV series - Emap aiming to buy Scottish Radio Holdings in which it already has a 27.8% stake - Meridian Petroleum to make its AIM debut this week and announce its first gas production deal - Thales has beaten BAE Systems on a 800 million battle to supply British military with unmanned spy planesMidas column: - Portfolio Review: Minerva, Cairn Energy, Findel, Skyepharma, Wolfson Microelectronics, Colt Telecom.Other News: - ITV Group is threatening to hand back its broadcasting licence and make all its programmes available only to digital viewers - BSkyB may have to pay advertisers up to 20 million after failing to deliver the audiences it promised

THE BUSINESS - Capital Radio and GWR merger talks are well advanced - Eurotunnel's UK investors to seek clarity on French rescue strategy - Permira close to pension trustee deal with WH SmithBenchmark: - Marks & Spencer: you can be sure Mr Philip Green will be back for another try - MCI: don't count on consolidation in the US telecoms sector just yet Inside the market: - Fund of the month: Schroder Investment Growth - Small Cap Investor: Buy Eliza Tinsley - AIM investor: Hot Group is staking its growth on dominance within niche online sectorOther comment: - Britain's worst funds, including Abbey National, Schroders and Prudential, lose investors 2.4 billion over the past three years

SUNDAY EXPRESS - Heath Lambert, the world's seventh largest insurance broker, is being targeted for takeover by South African rival Alexander Forbes - Gresham has appointed Deloitte and Touche to oversee the possible sale of its share of debt management company, First Credit - Mobile phone firm 3 is gearing up to float by the end of next year - The company behind the Nectar customer loyalty programme has made an operating loss of 40 million since it was established two years ago - Interview Mr Martin Dalby of Center Parcs - Mr Charles Allen told to turn ITV Group around or face the sack - Trinity Mirror chairman Mr Victor Blank is being lined up as potential next chairman of Marks & Spencer.

INDEPENDENT - ITV Group to raise 600 million by kicking non-core assets into touch - Mr David James close to refinancing Henlys in a deal that could include a 27 million cash injection from creditors - The controversial 3 billion project to build two aircraft carriers for the Royal Navy is to be delayed by up to a year - BAE Systems is not for us says Boeing boss - Warren Buffet's big gamble on cleaning up at Lloyd's. - DTI to defy Green lobby and bring more nuclear waste to Sellafield - Mr David Beckham is to be dropped by Marks & Spencer as part of the clearout by chief executive Stuart Rose - Mr Tony Blair was warned before the Iraq war but Attorney General Lord Goldsmith that a UN court could rule Britain's invasion of Iraq unlawful.

INVESTORS CHRONICLETips:Buy Carillion (CCLN) at 190p - TV Corporation (TVC) at 84p - Invox (INX) at 315p - Solitaire (STG) at 465pSell Intercontinental Hotels Group (IHG) at 566p and Sunderland (SUA)at 25pTip Updates:Buy Big Food Group (BFG)- Debt Free Direct (DFD) - Sell Minerva (MNR) - Stream (SEA)and Chrysalis (CHS)

SHARES MAGAZINE Plays of the Week:Buy: Nichols (NICL) at 128p - Ten Alps Communications (TAL) at 50.5p - Celtic Resources (CER) at 388p - Wynnstay (WYN) (long-term) at 201p.

Many thanks to Kyoto for being this weeks Thoughter

Back to knocking Martini Towers around for me now.

Have a good Sunday all.

Good Hunting
Dusty of Oxon.

Evening all,
Thanks to Martini and Kyoto.

Not a lot changed. We're still in the year's range, but nearer
the bottom of it than the top.
Although the FTSE dropped below 4300 in March, it's lowest close
was circa 4318. Which isn't very far from where we are at now.

Nasdaq composite and Nas100 have dipped below 1900/1400 respectively.
Ndx did actually drop, on a close basis, to circa 1370 in March and May.
So we're not far off there either.

S@P lowest close was 1084 in May, which was the approx pre Christmas
rally level to give some perspective on how far we've already come down.
So there's not far to go there.

DJ EuStoxx50 dropped to 2660 in May, about 50 points lower than Friday's
close.

As we can see, everything is getting close to where folk stop selling
and start buying. I know some TA guys are calling for more big drops, and they
may be right, but they're calling for a range break to the downside which
is a dangerous assumption IMHO.

Lots of Bears are already short, this will provide the fuel for reversal
that could be rapid when it comes. They can only take profit by buying
stuff. Shorts here should have tight stops, because if you get it wrong
here, calling for a range break lower, it may not come back to you for
years. Just like what happened to the Bulls 2000/2003, only in reverse.

Consequently, my shorts will be on an intraday scalp basis, looking at
the NDX, and the DJ Eustoxx50.
Keeping a watchful eye on some Ftse Blue Chip Divi payers, ready to leap
in for short/medium term position trades if it looks like we're bottoming out.

Melnibone.

thx martini, for taking the time to put this together, religiously every sunday, and to kyoto for accepting the offer to 'share' his trading experience..albeit after 20mins pondering ...must have been a long pause ..but a good decision nevetheless..! au revoir

Melnibone
I am still after you for a thoughters slot.
M

morning all and thanks to Kyoto for the thoughts.

Here here time to step up to the plate mel:)

mornin all

Morning all

Morning punters.

Lobbed TFC flat, JKX +2 avg, longed AQP and covered LLOY long +3.

Think that about covers it, but MRS gonna be a fiver by Xmas - I'm a bit long. ;-))))

Thanks to Kyoto for the thoughts, very interesting.
Hope the sun is shining on one and all, if not actually, then financially!

Morning all.

Low volume messing about while we wait for US guidance seems to
be the order of the day.
Big week for S&P earnings, this. Should give a clearer picture
of future earnings and likely direction. Current earnings are
already built in, so look for the guidance, not the headline
numbers.

Won't be able to post as much for a few weeks. Is that a big sigh
of relief, I hear?

Got a big project on at home. Replacing all the carpets with laminate
wood flooring. Lot of work involved there, and I need to pace myself
as I carry on recovering from an illness for a few years yet. Well
that's what the specialist told me last year, so we'll see.

Watching the market on Bloomberg while I work, and nipping in to take
the odd trade when I see a possibility and do the odd post.

I'll do a 'thoughter' for you sometime, God knows why you want me.
There's no accounting for taste, is there? :-)
But it will have to be when I can fit it in.

Melnibone.

Cheers Melnibone
Good luck with the project.
M

Decent day here. LLOY weekend trade closed at first 398p peak for +3, MRS went and closed at a new high (fiver by August!), opened a couple of AQP longs and still holding, but it got sold off, FTC tried to plummet again and failed (it will soon), lobbed TFC and JKX, SBT went up, RPT went down (still holding both), went long WBY and short LAC. PLR buggered about as usual and went short AZM very late.

Failed to chase TIG (t*t!)

Finding myself chasing trades at the moment, which is not good. Getting over-confident so looking to cut a few and sit on the good ones.

S&P really threatening to give a good break of the 200d SMA - it needs to make an upmove methinks or a few bets are off!

Evening all.
I'm cream-crackered. I would say something else, but I believe there
are ladies present.:-)

I never knew you could fit so much stuff into one room until I came
to shift it all. I'm fed up with removing those 'orrible spikey
carpet grippers as well. It's like juggling with porcupines.

Market drifted a bit on lowish volume. Nothing to write home about
and we're still in the range.

US didn't exactly crash, either. Looks pretty flat to me.
Greenspan waffling for the next two days. I wonder if
he'll upset the apple cart again.

Banks still dropping.
LLOY down to 392p now. The yield must be over 9% on this little
devil. Bet you're glad you never bought at 414p, stockbunny, as you
were musing about. If you did, I'll never speak to you again after
sorting out all those warning charts for you!
Only joshing. You do what you want to do. :-)

GSK is making a meal of hitting 1000p. I'm getting tempted.
To give some percentage perspective at these level, it's the same
as saying I'd buy ARM at 100p but not 104p. I need to think about
that. I'm in danger of being pedantic here.

MRW holding support well at 180p. The Brandes buy on Friday stopped
the rot here, IMHO. Got the Bears worried, poor things.
Still got my eye on that big gap down open that is begging to be filled.

OOM getting more friendless every day. Bit concerned it was downgraded
by Brokers. Don't trust that lot as far as I can throw them. If they
want a stock to come down it's for a reason that will suit them, not us.
Watching for a buying opportunity. This one is starting to throw off
cash and will be snapped up one day by someone wanting a stake
in the European Mobile sector. There's no room for new players.

VOD just below resistance on the 1p close price P&F chart.
I'd like to see it close at 115p and bounce.
VOD is a quality cash cow with plenty of growth potential via organic
3G and aquisitions. Don't ignore its potential just because it's
the world and its dog favourite trading stock.

Try and catch you tomorrow sometime if my aching knees let me hobble
to the keyboard.
Feel free to shift this post to tomorrows thread if you want, Martini,
if you think it's appropriate.

Stay loose and don't play the range break until it happens guys and gals.
Don't want to get caught shorting at the bottom do you?
If it does break, it'll come back to have a quick retest anyway and
give you a safer entry point.

Melnibone.