UK PreMarket Futures

FTSE -8

DAX -10

DOW -15

S&P -2.2

Nasdaq -3.5

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House price inflation has accelerated over the past month although house prices at the top end of the property market are falling dramatically UK futures turn negative Imperial Tobacco said the group was on track to meet its own expectations for the financial year Profile Therapeutics maker of inhaled drug delivery systems 6 month losses fell to 1.79 million pounds and first-half revenues rose 13 percent to 7.1m Headlam Group floor coverings distributor reported a 9% growth in annual profit to 32.6 million pounds and said it looked forward to another year of growth. Spirax-Sarco engineering maker of temperature and pressure controls, met forecasts with a 10 percent rise in 2003 profit to 44.6 million pounds and expected profit growth this year. BAE rules out Alvis counterbid ..

Calendar: United Kingdom	United States (GMT)	Europe & World (GMT
Primary Health (I), Alea Group (F), Headlam Group (F), Medical Solutions (F), Profile Therapeutics (F), ROK Property Solutions (F), Roxboro (F), Spirax (F)	Cintas Corporation, Dollar General Corp Tenet Healthcare Corp 13:30 NY Empire State Index 14:30 Capacity Utilization 14:30 Industrial Production	Hochtief AG, Thales, Lagardere Groupe

Croc@SnappyTrader.com  WWW.SnappyTrader.com

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US Zone

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Currency Calc

MONDAYS FTSE PP

R2 4531
R1 4499
PP 4437
S1 4405
S2 4343

Ftse close just under Fri pp! Brk up on fri out of 2 day(pos short closing) downtrend with a target of 4485, a brk of 4450 will lead to weakness imho!







WEEKLY FTSE PP

R2 4656
R1 4562
PP 4468
S1 4374
S2 4281

Options expiry week/budget and US FOMC rate decision week! Obvious spike down to support on above chart! Ftse oversold imho, pos tgt of 4500!, All down to the dow to brk out of its downtrend at 190/200 to tgt 10300, if not 10k will be on the cards, with ops exp Fri tricky, will we fall at the start of the week and then have a midweek turn into Fri or an early bounce that will be sold into! Will be trading signals on a daily basis with so much out next week!

Have a good weekend!




FTSE FIBS

4518
4490
4467
4445





Updated 3/12 for Monday's market.
Key DOW Levels for 3/15
UP Above 10,300
DN Below 10,100

Pull-Back
Dow trends higher off recent lows, ends session with solid gains.

From prior commentary, "...The Dow dropped another three-digit amount and will likely bounce at 50% Retracement at 10,100 tomorrow. Look for either a reaction rally or a consolidation to form in this area tomorrow..."
The Dow held at the 10,100 level today, honoring the key 50% Retracement point, which led to a solid uptrend for the session, as seen in the 15 and 60 Minute Charts. The Dow got the reaction rally we were looking for today, netting 112 points of gains for the session.

The index continues to trade beneath the clear upper trend line that has formed across the highs of the recent decline, seen in the 15 Minute Chart. An upside break of the line at 10,250 could spark an even greater move higher Monday. But the index must break through 10,300 if lasting strength is to be seen.

Otherwise, we could see the index form a wide range at the lows before another move lower occurs. A downside break through 10,100 would spark further weakness.

Short Term Dow

Short term, the Dow has formed a clear short term lower trend line beneath the lows of today's upmove, seen in the 5 Minute Chart. A downside break of this line at 10,200 will make for weakness Monday morning.

Medium Term Dow

In the medium term, we are still Short the Dow from 10,550 and will continue to hold stops at 10,300, locking in 250 points of profit. We will stay Short below 10,100 and will wait to enter Longs until 10,300 is crossed to the upside; using 20 point stops.

NASDAQ & S&P

The NASDAQ and S&P pulled back off recent lows en route to effective gains today. The NASDAQ ended the day at resistance, which will be key Monday. *

Summary

The Dow reversed off yesterday's lows and pushed slowly, but steadily higher throughout the session. Look for continued gains above 10,300 Monday, otherwise, a break below 10,100 will spark another steep decline.

Afternoon all.

As posted on the DOW thread on Friday, I agree with TP that we
saw Bear closing on Friday in all indices to lock in profit and
take money off the table for the weekend.

US rise after the FTSE close will possibly lead to some more
initial upside on Monday morning. FTSE will need to break the Thursday
bounce high at 4770 to move higher which will put it straight in at
the resistance area of 4500 which coincides with R1.
This should cap any rise without an event or US lead.

Friday's low came close to, but didn't break, the last swing low circa 4360.
Bags of nervousness and volatility have been the order of the day.

S@P and FTSE both had Bull traps set by the Bears at 1160/4550
respectively on the P@F charts.
S@P has either signalled a reversal down or now a Bear trap, set by the
Bulls, when it broke below 1110 on the P@F chart and broke a double
bottom. But Bear closing has taken back up above 1120 so it's unclear
which of the options it is.

EUSTOX50 has broken an uptrend and a swing low when it went below
2820. This has printed reversals before that were all Bear Traps, but
this time it also broke the swing low which is a new complication.

I feel that this is one of those times when your priority is to
protect your pot and go for profit on position trades only
with trend confirmation. All trades I do until then will be on
a quick in and out scalp basis closely paying attention to support
and resistance levels. This is not a time to have preconceived
ideas on direction with highly margined positions.

Melnibone.

Morning all ..

mornin all

Morning all,

FTSE having trouble getting above the the Thursday bounce
area that I mentioned.

The Spanish election result and the tragic events in Madrid
are having an effect.

If it was ETA then that would maybe have united the Government
and the people. But because it is now looking like Al Qaeda
this raises the worldwide terrorist stakes. Al Qaeda have achieved
a goal by displacing the Spanish government that supported the
Iraq war. The worry now is there will be repeat attacks in other
countries to achieve the same effect.

I think that fundamentals have just flown out of the window
as far as stock markets are concerned. Markets dislike uncertainty.

Melnibone.

Morning all

Yummy tea,
Went short FTSE as I mentioned in the header at 4450 and a small short on BDEV. Thats my lot on a quiet morning.

Still non of my stop losses have kicked in - still makes me think that this is not a falling market. (Or I just don't hold the FTSE100 shares that are being hit hardest!)

Maybe you're just a good stockpicker, little woman. :-)

Melnibone.

I wish - the bulk of my shares have paid a rising div every year consistantly! I suppose they are just solid companies, so don't get hit as hard as others.

My gut instinct is telling me to short the pops now,
not buy the dips.

Looking at the way some stocks, as well as indices, are performing,
I'm getting the impression that when stuff rises to where folk
bought in for a bounce, and it didn't, then they are just selling
to exit positions whilst breathing a sigh of relief.

If S@P breaks below the 1100/1105 area, then my P@F chart is
suggesting that support will not come in until the 1030/1040 area.
Think what that will do to Eurozone stocks and indices.

I'm leaving long positions to heros and LTBH'ers.

Melnibone.

Several of my shares are up today, and the few downs, seem to be pulling back up. BT.A is currently 5+, so I'm showing a very healthy profit now. Even JRVS purchased before the fall is still in profit.

Had 2 shorts on the FTSE, closed the early one for a few when it fell below 4050 and the second for a meager 2 points when it just flatlined.
No position at the moment.

Croc sounds sensible to me, do u have depth of mkt for ftse, thats some comp prog today, like Fri, unbelievable, who wrote that, i,d like to throttle em:) Was ok but was a real take on! Couple of trades but sat on hands, was cheaper!

TP,
Yep have mkt depth, very intersting

also have the depth, but been mad past couple of days, i prefer a medium mkt!

Glad I changed strategy from last Thu/Fri to sell the pops
instead of buy the dips.

S@P very close to the critical support level now.
If this goes, it will be a large gap down open on the
FTSE tomorrow below 4400.
Still, let's not jump the gun, 4 hours left to trade yet.

Melnibone.

 

2970

X

2940

X

X

O

2910

X

O

X

O

2880

X

O

X

O

2850

X

O

O

2820

X

O

2790

X

O

2760

X

2730

X

2700

X

X

2670

X

X

X

O

X

2640

X

O

X

O

X

O

X

2610

X

O

X

X

O

X

O

X

2580

X

O

X

O

X

O

O

2550

X

X

X

X

O

X

O

X

2520

X

O

X

O

X

O

X

O

X

O

X

2490

X

O

X

O

X

O

X

O

X

O

2460

X

O

X

O

O

O

X

2430

X

X

O

X

O

2400

X

O

X

X

X

X

O

2370

X

X

O

X

O

X

O

X

O

X

2340

X

O

X

O

X

O

X

O

X

O

X

2310

X

O

X

O

O

O

O

X

2280

X

X

X

O

X

O

X

2250

X

X

O

X

X

O

X

O

O

2220

X

O

X

O

X

O

X

O

X

2190

X

X

O

X

O

X

O

X

O

2160

X

O

X

O

O

X

O

X

2130

X

O

X

O

X

O

X

2100

X

O

X

O

O

X

2070

O

X

O

2040

O

X

2010

O

X

1980

O

X

1950

O

X

1920

O

X

1890

O

1860

Update for the EUSTOX50 PnF chart. I've found this one to be pretty indicative

of Eurozone Indices this year. Not looking pretty. This is only the second time that

we've dropped 2 box's below the support. If SnP drops then the EUSTOX50 could

carry on dropping to below 2600.

Melnibone.

 

X

4600

X

O

X

X

O

X

X

O

4500

X

O

X

O

X

O

O

X

X

O

X

O

4400

O

X

O

X

O

O

X

O

X

X

4300

O

X

X

O

X

O

X

O

X

O

X

X

O

X

X

X

O

X

4200

O

X

O

X

O

X

O

X

O

X

X

X

O

X

O

X

O

X

O

X

O

X

O

X

O

X

O

X

O

X

O

X

O

4100

O

X

O

X

O

X

O

O

X

O

X

O

X

O

X

O

O

X

O

O

X

O

X

O

X

X

O

4000

O

X

O

X

O

O

X

O

X

O

X

O

X

X

X

O

X

O

X

3900

O

X

O

X

O

X

O

X

O

O

X

X

O

O

X

O

X

O

X

O

X

O

X

3800

O

X

O

O

O

X

O

X

O

O

X

X

O

X

3700

O

X

O

X

O

O

X

O

X

3600

O

X

O

X

O

O

X

3500

O

X

O

X

3400

O

X

O

3300

Update on UKX PnF chart. Still in bull trend but check out the action

on the left when we were last at these levels.

 

Melnibone.