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Traders Thread & Thoughts - Monday 22nd March (SHEL)
Crocodile - 21 Mar 2004 15:52
| UK PreMarket Futures | FTSE -35 | DAX -35 | DOW -24 | S&P -2.7 | Nasdaq -5 |
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Northern Foods said it expected to report results broadly in line with expectations for the year to the end of this month. Wolseley the world's largest supplier of plumbing equipment, said first half profits rose by 21 percent to 226.3 million pounds, in line with estimates, and it saw the U.S. industrial and commercial markets improving. Ebookers online travel agency grew 90 percent in 2003 as it announced its first ever adjusted pre-tax profit to 1.3 million pounds and said that 2004 had got off to a strong start. Forth Ports posted a better-than-expected 12 percent rise in annual underlying profit and said it was confident of earnings growth in 2004. |
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Aero Inventory (I), Hit Entertainment (I), Inventive Leisure (I), Kier Group (I),Ashtenne Holdings (F), Churchill China (F), Collins Stewart Tullett (F), CSS Stellar (F), EBookers (F), Enterprise (F), Forth Ports (F), Hiscox (F), Hit Entertainment (F), John Laing (F), London and Associated properties (F), Maclellan Group (F), Pennant International (F), TripleArc (F), Venture Production (F), Wolseley (F), MyTravel Group (AGM) |
Carnival Corp Walgreen Co 17:00 Core PPI Feb DATE TBA 0.1% 17:00 PPI Feb DATE TBA 0.5% |
France Telecom |
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Melnibone - 21 Mar 2004 17:31 - 4 of 34
That's no excuse, you're not here to enjoy yourself, you're
meant to be slaving away on a computer, 24/7, doing all this for us,
for free. :-))
Any more of this and I will be forced to write a letter of complaint
to MaM, signed, 'Disgusted from Tunbridge Wells'. ;-)
Ref the Indices, I agree with Croc. There's far too many Bears appearing
in the media calling for the end of the financial world as we know it.
I've already seen the first spring cuckoo comparing charts with Japan.
Some are calling for a 60% drop in the US and a 40% drop in the UK, due
to they are over-valued by that much. The fact that they managed a hedge
fund and were definately not touting for business had absolutely
nothing to do with it.
Sticking to support, resistance and trend with well managed margin
and positions. Until it changes, the trend is still up and the Indices
are on support.
Melnibone.
meant to be slaving away on a computer, 24/7, doing all this for us,
for free. :-))
Any more of this and I will be forced to write a letter of complaint
to MaM, signed, 'Disgusted from Tunbridge Wells'. ;-)
Ref the Indices, I agree with Croc. There's far too many Bears appearing
in the media calling for the end of the financial world as we know it.
I've already seen the first spring cuckoo comparing charts with Japan.
Some are calling for a 60% drop in the US and a 40% drop in the UK, due
to they are over-valued by that much. The fact that they managed a hedge
fund and were definately not touting for business had absolutely
nothing to do with it.
Sticking to support, resistance and trend with well managed margin
and positions. Until it changes, the trend is still up and the Indices
are on support.
Melnibone.
Fundamentalist
- 21 Mar 2004 18:43
- 5 of 34
Hi all
thanks as always Croc.
Mel - it appears it could be another bad week for GSK. According to the Sunday Telegraph the full details of the new remuneration agreements are out this week including an increase in bonus last year for Garnier. Also, it appears that the directors who rolled over their options after the Smithklione merger are being given additional cash payments for doing so, with Richard Sykes (ex-Chairman) receiving 941,000. Until the shareholder vote on the remuneration packages are over (in May I believe) the share price is going to continue to be under pressure imho and your 1000p target looks increasingly likely.
thanks as always Croc.
Mel - it appears it could be another bad week for GSK. According to the Sunday Telegraph the full details of the new remuneration agreements are out this week including an increase in bonus last year for Garnier. Also, it appears that the directors who rolled over their options after the Smithklione merger are being given additional cash payments for doing so, with Richard Sykes (ex-Chairman) receiving 941,000. Until the shareholder vote on the remuneration packages are over (in May I believe) the share price is going to continue to be under pressure imho and your 1000p target looks increasingly likely.
Melnibone - 21 Mar 2004 19:11 - 6 of 34
Yes, GSK doesn't appear to be in a purple patch at the moment.
It seems as if they're having a competition with SHEL to see who
can trump the last bit of bad news. ;-)
They're both big world players, the lower they go the better it becomes
for LTBH'ers when they come to put some more money to work in the market.
For traders, the up/down swings are giving good trading opportunities.
Long may it continue.:-)
Taking a peek at LGEN at the moment, it's been hammered down to the
autumn lows and it pays a nice divi in two wednesdays time. (31 March).
If the Indices supports hold, and Fundies start buying Blue Chips
to end the quarter on a good note, there's the possibility of capital
appreciation and a 4% divi to ice the cake with.
As always, my Delorean is still bust, that Reliant Robin that TP
loaned me isn't much cop, ;-), so I don't know if supports will hold.
Worth thinking about though.
Edit: That should read that LGEN goes ex-divi on the 31Mar, which as a
CFD trader is what I'm interested in. Real share dealers will have to
hold for a little longer.
Melnibone.
It seems as if they're having a competition with SHEL to see who
can trump the last bit of bad news. ;-)
They're both big world players, the lower they go the better it becomes
for LTBH'ers when they come to put some more money to work in the market.
For traders, the up/down swings are giving good trading opportunities.
Long may it continue.:-)
Taking a peek at LGEN at the moment, it's been hammered down to the
autumn lows and it pays a nice divi in two wednesdays time. (31 March).
If the Indices supports hold, and Fundies start buying Blue Chips
to end the quarter on a good note, there's the possibility of capital
appreciation and a 4% divi to ice the cake with.
As always, my Delorean is still bust, that Reliant Robin that TP
loaned me isn't much cop, ;-), so I don't know if supports will hold.
Worth thinking about though.
Edit: That should read that LGEN goes ex-divi on the 31Mar, which as a
CFD trader is what I'm interested in. Real share dealers will have to
hold for a little longer.
Melnibone.
gallick - 21 Mar 2004 21:31 - 7 of 34
>> Melnibone
When you mention the 'experts' talking about a 60% fall in the US and a 40% fall in the UK, this sounds like Mr Smithers of Smithers & Co, a notorious bear. As I understand it he bases his calculations on Q ratios (or factors...I'm not sure) which you need to be a maths professor to understand. Since the stockmarket is based so much on fear and greed (ie sentiment/emotions) I reckon these sorts of mathematical calculations can be an analysis too far. I have just read about a top US trader who has made millions by concentrating solely on charts and volumes (ie no fundemental analysis at all). It makes you think!!
Regards to all.
When you mention the 'experts' talking about a 60% fall in the US and a 40% fall in the UK, this sounds like Mr Smithers of Smithers & Co, a notorious bear. As I understand it he bases his calculations on Q ratios (or factors...I'm not sure) which you need to be a maths professor to understand. Since the stockmarket is based so much on fear and greed (ie sentiment/emotions) I reckon these sorts of mathematical calculations can be an analysis too far. I have just read about a top US trader who has made millions by concentrating solely on charts and volumes (ie no fundemental analysis at all). It makes you think!!
Regards to all.
Melnibone - 21 Mar 2004 21:53 - 8 of 34
I quite agree, gallick.
I like a little bit of basic FA to make sure I'm not trading
long on a basket case or short on a takeover target.
Then all I'm interested in is which way it's going, which is
shown by the chart, between support and resistance and trade with it.
When it hits support or resistance, I then wait to see if it's
going to reverse or continue and break the support/resistance.
Liquidity is important to enable you to make easy entries and exits
within a narrow spread, which is why I like FTSE100 Blue Chips or simple
Index trading. This is another area where volume comes in to play as well as
checking whether the higher volume is on up days or down days, which is
the more usual reason why traders keep an eye on volume.
Melnibone.
I like a little bit of basic FA to make sure I'm not trading
long on a basket case or short on a takeover target.
Then all I'm interested in is which way it's going, which is
shown by the chart, between support and resistance and trade with it.
When it hits support or resistance, I then wait to see if it's
going to reverse or continue and break the support/resistance.
Liquidity is important to enable you to make easy entries and exits
within a narrow spread, which is why I like FTSE100 Blue Chips or simple
Index trading. This is another area where volume comes in to play as well as
checking whether the higher volume is on up days or down days, which is
the more usual reason why traders keep an eye on volume.
Melnibone.
Crocodile - 22 Mar 2004 07:51 - 9 of 34
Morning ...
little woman
- 22 Mar 2004 08:30
- 10 of 34
Morning all
Lots to do this week....
Lots to do this week....
Melnibone - 22 Mar 2004 09:16 - 11 of 34
Morning all,
FTSE down to the last swing low, there will also be some more
support around the 4330 area. It needs to hold around these levels.
US is also near the DOW/S@P 10,100/1100 levels which it needs to hold.
Should find out soon if we're making lows or changing trends.
Melnibone.
FTSE down to the last swing low, there will also be some more
support around the 4330 area. It needs to hold around these levels.
US is also near the DOW/S@P 10,100/1100 levels which it needs to hold.
Should find out soon if we're making lows or changing trends.
Melnibone.
little woman
- 22 Mar 2004 10:19
- 12 of 34
Melnibone - could you take a look at ANGL (Anglo Irish Bank). According to the research section of this site the dividend yield is 150% - as the companies dividend is higher than the share price! I'm going to check out some other sites - but can you let me know what you think? (I have a friend off to IRAQ at the end of the week, and want to know if he should sell now, or would it be OK to hang on until the end of the year when he returns to the UK).
Crocodile - 22 Mar 2004 10:23 - 13 of 34
Short WOS still & FTSE
D.
D.
Melnibone - 22 Mar 2004 10:31 - 14 of 34
Hi little woman,
I'll have to do some more checking but I'm under the
impression that ANGL is priced in Euros.
Maybe some confusion here between the currency quotes.
Melnibone.
I'll have to do some more checking but I'm under the
impression that ANGL is priced in Euros.
Maybe some confusion here between the currency quotes.
Melnibone.
Melnibone - 22 Mar 2004 10:36 - 15 of 34
| 4600 | |||||||||||||
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| X | X | O | 4500 | ||||||||||
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| X | X | 4300 | |||||||||||
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| X | X | O | X | 4200 | |||||||||
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| X | O | X | O | 4100 | |||||||||
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| O | 3300 |
FTSE has now made a double bottom on the PnF Chart.
If it prints 4300 then it will do the same as the Eustox50 and the SnP
Care required here for shorts or longs.
Melnibone.
Melnibone - 22 Mar 2004 10:43 - 16 of 34
little woman, I think I'm correct.
Yahoo! quotes ANGL on the Dublin exchange in Euros
with the divi in Euro Cents.
MaM is quoting the price and the divi in Sterling Pence
Please double check before making any decision.
Melnibone.
Yahoo! quotes ANGL on the Dublin exchange in Euros
with the divi in Euro Cents.
MaM is quoting the price and the divi in Sterling Pence
Please double check before making any decision.
Melnibone.
Melnibone - 22 Mar 2004 11:48 - 17 of 34
I see the 4330 support level I mentioned earlier has held.
All depends now on how spooked the US gets on the killing
of the Hamas leader.
US and UK are still on support. Selling volume in the US was
heavier on the US stocks but now seems to be lightening off
a little.
A lot of the UK Blue Chips I trade are still holding on support.
As usual, everything is on hold now for US direction.
GSK hasn't dropped that much today considering the general fall.
What do you reckon Fundamentalist and Little woman?
Signs of bottoming or just recovering a bit from last weeks
sell off?
Melnibone.
All depends now on how spooked the US gets on the killing
of the Hamas leader.
US and UK are still on support. Selling volume in the US was
heavier on the US stocks but now seems to be lightening off
a little.
A lot of the UK Blue Chips I trade are still holding on support.
As usual, everything is on hold now for US direction.
GSK hasn't dropped that much today considering the general fall.
What do you reckon Fundamentalist and Little woman?
Signs of bottoming or just recovering a bit from last weeks
sell off?
Melnibone.
Melnibone - 22 Mar 2004 12:11 - 18 of 34
Keep an eye on LGEN that I mentioned further up this thread.
October low seems to be holding and it's trying to go positive
on a down day. Don't forget the ex-divi next week circa 4%.
Melnibone.
October low seems to be holding and it's trying to go positive
on a down day. Don't forget the ex-divi next week circa 4%.
Melnibone.
Melnibone - 22 Mar 2004 12:40 - 19 of 34
Lot of large trades going through on SKP at the bid price
which is dropping the share down.
Be interesting to see if some news now comes out into the
public domain after some folk have already adjusted their
positions.
Melnibone.
which is dropping the share down.
Be interesting to see if some news now comes out into the
public domain after some folk have already adjusted their
positions.
Melnibone.
little woman
- 22 Mar 2004 12:54
- 20 of 34
It's times like today, I miss not being able to short!
After never giving me a moments worry over the last 6 plus years, my work computer is not happy! I've had to restart 3 times, but it seems to be OK now.
After never giving me a moments worry over the last 6 plus years, my work computer is not happy! I've had to restart 3 times, but it seems to be OK now.
Fundamentalist
- 22 Mar 2004 13:36
- 21 of 34
Mel
news often comes at 2pm prior to the US opening rather than early morning on this share - could be an interesting next hour
news often comes at 2pm prior to the US opening rather than early morning on this share - could be an interesting next hour
zarif
- 22 Mar 2004 13:44
- 22 of 34
Hi everyone.
Fundamentalist - i have sent u internal mail by mam.
rgds
zarif
Fundamentalist - i have sent u internal mail by mam.
rgds
zarif
Fundamentalist
- 22 Mar 2004 13:58
- 23 of 34
Zarif
tx, you have return mail
tx, you have return mail
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