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U.S. stock markets tumbled on worries that interest rate rises will damage the economic recovery Sage reported a better than expected half year profit of 86.7 million pounds on revenues up 23 percent to 332.5 million. "Whilst market conditions are substantially unchanged, these strong results show that our growth strategy is gaining momentum in each of our core markets. We therefore continue to view 2004 with confidence," Chairman Michael Jackson said in a statement. Enodis maker of  ovens for fast-food chains, said it was cautiously optimistic about the rest of its financial year as it reported first half profits in line with expectations. Slough Estates business parks operator said that while overall economic conditions had made 2003 a tough year, things were improving and its long-term outlook remained good. John David Group sportswear retailer sales rose O.9 percent in the quarter as the company reviews operations to improve its prospects after its full-year profits slumped to 6m million pounds from 15.1m at the low end of market forecasts. Ashtead equipment hire firm will post an eight percent drop in annual revenues due to the impact of the weaker U.S. dollar. Revenues were around 500m compared with 540m the year before.

	Calendar:  United Kingdom		United States (GMT)		Europe & World (GMT)
Centurion Electronics (I), Enodis (I), Sage Group (I), Robert Wiseman (F), UKbetting (F), John David (I), Ashtead (I)Johnson Service Group (AGM), Macfarlane Group (AGM),  Standard Chartered (AGM / Trading), WSP Group (AGM),March Industrial/Manufacturing Output (08:30) NIESR GDP Estimate		Cisco Systems, TJX Companies May Department Stores, Mylan Labs El Paso, Meridian Gold		Degussa AG, IWKA AG RWE AG, Rheinmetall AG Wella AG, CNP Assurances Klepierre SA

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David@SnappyTrader.com   www.SnappyTrader.com			Pre Market Futures	FTSE +26	DAX+20	DOW +27	S&P +5	Nasdaq +4

very poetic zarif :-)

Morning all,

Looks like blue this morning - but is that just buying for bargains? And the really big question - will it continue during the day and the rest of the week?

Morning all,

Heavy down volume yesterday, only light volume up today, so far.
US still at the March lows. Careful with your bottom fishing just yet.
Unless you are the type that thrives on risk and reckon you can call
bottoms and turns, best to wait for confirmation and just take some
of a run rather than try and grab the lot.

Melnibone. Being cautious, as usual. ;-)

Just noticed my STAN's.

It opened up below my mental take profit stop yesterday,
but didn't reach my mental stop loss, so I took no action.
Today it's back up to where I was on Friday.

I much prefer mental stop losses. The market doesn't know how
you'll play your hand. A known stop loss will only work if
it's a paid for guaranteed stop. In a crash you'll only get
what you are given when the price action stabilises. Markets
like to make money and if there are known stops that it will
make money by taking them out then it tends to gravitate towards them.

This is what happened when the Euro/Dollar peaked. It was known that there
was a large stop by a big player at that level and it was taken out
by the market.

Melnibone. (Still waddling around with Quasimodo's back):-(

I have been caught on stop losses.
Sometimes the market can spike down within half an hour and then jump back up.However that drop can take you out maybe below the stop. With online dealing there is little you can do. As you say, set your own stop losses on paper and have the courage to take action if you wish.

I use stop losses a lot, but they are initially set so low, (and I'm small fry, so it wouldn't make any difference) so unless there is a major drop they don't kick in. Mind - I'm taking about stop losses on long term shares, not CFD's.

Although they are based 1% below the S3 level, in most cases it works out about 12% below the highest closing price. Since using this system I've never been caught out by a spike, although I did before added the extra 1%! The extra 1% seems to have made all the difference.

We all have our own way of using stops that suit ourselves.

I think the important thing is that you have them and that you
work them out before you take a position.

This will concentrate the mind on why you are initiating
a position and what you expect from it. It will usually result
in you showing patience and discipline and waiting for the correct
entry point. Assuming that your reasoning is correct, of course. ;-)

Melnibone.

quiet in here today.

Small long oom this morning, which I've decided to let run for the time being.

An interesting article:


The Stockmarket Correction has Only Just Begun & 5 tips
writes legendary bear raider Evil Knievil

The UK Stockmarket has just suffered its biggest one day fall of the year. But the fun, my friends, is only just beginning. I, of course, will make money as I will explain later but let us begin with a few reasons why the market is set for a tumble.

Firstly it is quite obvious that man - foolish and pathetic little creature that he is - has learned nothing from the first stage of the bear market and has again taken leave of his senses. Whichever way I looked at it the flotation of Google was at a level that could not be justified. Yet the same well heeled liars (Merchant bankers, analysts, PR men, etc) who peddled fantastic valuations a few years ago and have since been disgraced were arguing that it was cheap. Amazingly people believed them. Reality has again left the building.

Secondly the Middle East and Iraq is a mess. Not even the Wicked Witch and her consort, the liar Blair, can disguise this fact. Were it not for the fact that elections were looming on both sides of the Atlantic helicopters would already be lifting the last occupants from the US compound, Saigon style. That day will come but meanwhile the body bags will be shipped home and the whole region will be destabilised. This has to upset global economic confidence and - if it topples the kleptocratic House of Saud - will also send oil prices rocketing. 40 dollar Crude will seem cheap. Welcome to the world of 60 dollar oil. That will knock the stockmarket for six.

Thirdly, interest rates will rise sharply on both sides of the Atlantic. For the over borrowed consumer and corporate that spells disaster. Don't let Gordon Brown or the economists paid to tell lies by the banks and building societies fool you. This is bad news.

And finally, while Western Governments are printing banknotes with reckless abandon this can only serve to devalue their currencies. This might be the plan for how else can they support such huge deficits. But it is unhelpful to the cause of economic stability. In the UK we face the additional threat of a Government whose greedy tax grabbing and insistence on implementing profoundly misguided and anti-business legislation, seriously threatens to undermine the well-being of the private sector. Does the silly cow Patricia Hewitt really think that forcing small companies to bring in prayer rooms for minority staff will actually increase the chances of minority staff gaining employment or make British industry more competitive? The sooner that ghastly woman is packed off to become a 5 a day and equality co-ordinator at a regional polytechnic the better.

So how to make money from this chaos?
The obvious answer is to retrain as a diversity co-ordinator myself but I suspect that I might fluff the interview. Thus I shall stick to what I know about: eating and drinking far too much and being a ruthless stockmarket operator.

I remain long of gold stocks. Historically gold has tracked oil and if the cause of oil spiking is political chaos I expect a flight to the safety of my beloved precious metal. Moreover if the idiots Bush, Blair and whichever crook runs Europe these days (they are all crooks, just the faces change) insist on printing more and more of their paper currencies it seems pretty obvious that their value will go down. That is basic economics for you. Gold is not being mined in ever larger quantities - indeed the reverse is true - and thus it remains a cracking hedge against inflation. I don't care whether gold goes to 350 dollars next or 390 dollars. Mark my words: in due course it will be heading back towards 500 dollars an ounce as the chaos unfolds. At that stage my portfolio of gold shares will soar. For choice I'd go for Uruguay Minerals (listed in Toronto) and Golden Prospect (GOL) listed at 26.75p on AIM.

Secondly I am very happy to be short of companies with large debts and minimal asset backing, preferably where trading is also woeful. Hence I am short of Henlys at 21p where a reconstruction at just a couple of pence looks the only way out and also of Jarvis at 84.5p. I fear that its chairman Steve "Shagger" Norris will soon regret his decision to take a ride at Jarvis rather than spending more time with his various families. This share price is heading only one way and that is the same way as Shagger's opinion poll ratings. Both these positions are heavily in the money and will support my heavy drinking for many months as they become more so.

And finally, having lost 3 million pounds shorting Regus last year I am going to get some of my money back this time. Whether you value this stock on a cashflow multiple or in relation to its net assets it is grotesquely overvalued at 66.5p. I can't believe that higher base rates and soaring crude prices will help its business much and this year I will be reclaiming some of the cash I lent to the spreadbetters last year.

I must admit I've read the book on his master class held in May 03, and thought it was excellent.

I must agree JVRS are in "deep shit". Too many people I know (who don't invest have admitted they know of project, after project which JVRS have screwed up and are having to put right at great expense!) As an investor I hope he's wrong, but going by the amount of cash I'm accumulating, perhaps my subconscious is agreeing with him.

LW - what is the book called - i'd quite like to read it

just watched a "battle" on L2 on OOM! It comes & goes, not sure who will win.

Click the 5 day tab on the FTSE chart at the top of this thread.
Draw a line down the highs. It's pretty straight, you won't need
a ruler. :-)

It comes in where the FTSE stopped rising today.
Really need the US to break above yesterdays trading highs
to move the FTSE higher IMHO.

Melnibone.

The books called "Bear Essentials" (the secrets of forensic Accounting and profitable trading) by evil knievil. Its published by t1ps.com ltd, (ISBN 0-9542748-1-4)

Mind you, he does admit that he doesn't get it right all the time, (and the 3 mil loss he mentions show that), but he does get it right more often than he gets it wrong, which is why he can afford to lose that amount of money. He used to be a Chartered Accountant, butI think he got kicked out of his institute for advising on trading! Thats what happens when you are successful, especially at the expense of others - everyone else was long, and he was short.

BAGHDAD (AFX) - The US-led coalition has passed control of a ninth ministry to an Iraqi interim minister, ahead of the June 30 deadline for the hand over of sovereignty in the country.

The Iraqi ministry of Industry and Materials, headed by Mohammad Tofiq Rahim, employs some 130,000 people, and is one of the largest single employers in Iraq.

The US-led coalition aims to hand over all 25 ministries to Iraqi control by June 30, with two more scheduled for this week.

Control has already been handed to Iraqi interim ministers at the culture, agriculture, public works, health, education, science and technologies, displacement and migration, and water resources ministries

Coalition advisors remain in all but they are no longer charged with the final decisions.

newsdesk@afxnews.com

So when does the civil war for power start?

I thought this was interesting - especially the comment from Paul Dales!

LONDON (AFX) - Sterling remained under pressure, setting a 2004 low against the dollar after a dismal performance in the UK manufacturing sector dampened expectations of rapid UK interest rate increases.

The pound sank to as low as 1.7534 usd before recovering slightly.

The sell off, which saw the pound drop more than 1 cent against the dollar came after beleaguered manufacturers saw output decline for the second straight month in March, raising concerns that higher borrowing costs are taking their toll on the sector.

Official data showed manufacturing output in March falling 0.3 pct from the previous month, against expectations of a 0.6 pct increase. On a year-on-year basis, manufacturing output was up 0.4 pct against expectations of a 1.0 pct rise.

Sterling has been the main mover today - after markets were taken by surprise by the data, especially in an otherwise quiet day, said Naeem Wahid at HBOS.

Signs are that the Bank of England will not be in a hurry to hike interest rates. The central bank has already raised rates three times in six months, the third came last Thursday, taking the benchmark repo rate to 4.25 pct.

Capital Economics' UK economist Paul Dales said today's numbers provide a "strong warning" to the MPC "not to forget about the rest of the economy in its attempts to cool down the housing market".

Separately, French industrial output also came in weak, adding to worries over recovery in the euro zone, especially after equally dismal figures recently out of the area's largest economy, Germany.

Seasonally-adjusted French industrial output for March was up 0.1 pct, well under expectations of a 0.4 pct rise.

Taken together, the French and UK data helped the dollar shrug off a weak start to climb higher.

Still a "broadly consolidative" tone is likely for the dollar, given

the lack of US economic data, Marc Chandler, chief currency strategist at HSBC Bank USA said.

The yen was also under pressure but steadied from 8 month lows against the dollar. The dollar rose past 114 yen briefly on Monday.

Fundamentalist - I was thinking about EK's comment about shorting JVRS - it would not surprise me if he did the opposite - he's not stupid, and knows how to play the game, and others.

little woman-

its funny but the more i see of the world of markets, the more i think of those old films like the ipcress files and the newer conspiracy ones where no-ones what they seem and your just a pawn in a game your only dimly aware of!

Little Woman

Thanks for the title, I will get a copy and have a read. I like the contrarian theory you have posted - certainly food for thought.

It's also why I never listen to Gurus.

You just end up double bluffing yourself and being influenced
by the last person, Bull or Bear, that you listened to.

As I've said before. Start off assuming that folk are looking
out for themselves.
Put yourself inside their heads. What do they hope to gain from
their 'free' words to you?
How do they go about it and will it be to your detriment?
For them to make money someone has to loose it.
Is it you? Or do they want you as a foot soldier to swell the
army fighting their battle?

When you've totally tied yourself in mental knots, you just end
up saying,
"Why bother? Now then, which way is the chart pointing? Towards
resistance or support?"

Melnibone.