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Crocs Traders Thread Wednesday 9th June (DIVI)     

Martini - 08 Jun 2004 21:01

 

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1 Day     2 Day  5 Day   UK News
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Gold/Bond Pivots Markets  Futures Translate
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Day 2 Day 5 Day US News

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S&P Futures

Nikkei +208 Hang Seng +150  Asia News
  DAX    CAC     Euro News
ukf.gif Calendar:  United Kingdom usf.gif  United States euro.gif  Europe & World
Interims SIG : Signet GroupFinals BWB : Burtonwood Brewery ERG : Erinaceous Group HLCL : Helical Bar KWL : Kewill Systems NWG : Northumbrian Water Group TEP : Telecom Plus YTE : Yates GroupAGM / EGM ANTO : Antofagasta ASY : Andrews Sykes Group SGF : Singer & Friedlander AIM VCT SIR : Sirius Financial Solutions THN : Thomson Intermedia UKB : ukbettingEconomic UK April trade (0830 GMT) UK April industrial production (0830 GMT) Company American Woodmark Corporation AMWD H&R Block, Inc. HRB Hayes Lemmerz Int'l, Inc. HAYZ Martek Biosciences Corporation MATK Net2Phone NTOP Omnivision Technologies OVTI Signet Group SIGY Smithfield Foods SFD Tommy Hilfiger TOM Versant VSNT Volt Information Sciences VOLEconomic3:00 PM GMT Wholesale Inventories for Apr Mkt Expects 0.5% EconomicPORT: Auction: 800 - 900m 4.375% 06/2014 Bond GER: 07.00 Trade Balance (April) 16.5bn 12.0bn - Current Account 11.3bn 6.6bn JAP: 07.00 Machinery Orders (May) -3.2% +1.9% (+6.4%) NZ 22.00 Reserve Bank of New Zealand Interest Rate Announcement
Interim Ex Dividend: UK AVON : Avon Rubber - 3.7(p) BSET : British Assets Trust - 1.3(p) CDFF : Cardiff Property - 2.2(p) CRY : Country & Metropolitan - 1.1(p) HMP : Hampton Trust - 4(p) ITE : ITE Group - 0.55(p) MAJE : Majedie Investments - 3.2(p) NHP : NHP - 3(p) PUB : Punch Taverns - 2.9(p) RE. : R.E.A. Holdings - 4.5(p) RNO : Renold - 3(p) SCV : Scottish Value Trust - 1(p) WTAN : Witan Investment Trust - 2.7(p)Final Ex Dividend: ABNY : Albany Investment - 5.4(p) AGG : Aggregate Industries - 1.67(p) AUW : Atrium Underwriting - 8(p) AXD : Alexandra - 3.3(p) BAA : BAA - 13.4(p) BOOT : Boots Group - 21(p) CAM : Camellia - 67(p) CHU : Chaucer Holdings - 1.35(p) CTF : City Lofts Group - 1.94(p) ENN : Ennstone - 0.78(p) ET. : Establishment Investment Trust - 1.45(p) FSTA : Fuller Smith & Turner - 12.21(p) HDU : Hardy Underwriting Group - 8.25(p) HEAD : Headlam Group - 10.25(p) HILS : Hill & Smith Holdings - 2.45(p) HTG : Hunting - 2.25(p) JHT : Johnston Group - 3(p) JJB : JJB Sports - 7(p) JMAT : Johnson Matthey - 18.2(p) LPK : Linton Park - 10(p) MCP : Martin Currie Pacific Trust - 1.4(p) MRT : Merchant Retail Group - 2.75(p) MTN : Matalan - 5.4(p) NRI : Northern Investors Company - 14(p) PEA : Peacock Group (The) PLC - 5.3(p) PILK : Pilkington - 3.25(p) PVI : Private Investors Capital Trust - 0.5(p) RTN : Restaurant Group - 2.9(p) SJE : Smith (James) Estates - 5.5(p) SMT : Scottish Mortgage Investment Trust - 0.4(p) YULC : Yule Catto & Co - 7.7(p)

amberjane - 09 Jun 2004 00:13 - 4 of 38

Yes quite a learning curve today. Traders is far more prolific, 230 to our 23 and 17 already for tomorrow, well here's our 3rd!

Morning all :>}}

biffa18 - 09 Jun 2004 07:00 - 5 of 38

martini
best of luck with wireless network, mine works well am sat in garden havin breky i also use the wireless system for my broadband ie not tele line and i am also in out backs of south oxfordshire watlington area

ThePlayboy - 09 Jun 2004 07:15 - 6 of 38

WEDS FTSE PP

r2 4531
r1 4518
pp 4502
s1 4489
s2 4474

The ftse closed above it pp on Tue but lost 2.4 pts in the auction, uptrend still intact, breakdown at 4500 imho to watch if the dow fails to pass 10400 and closed sub 10360 may be a retracement on the cards!

ThePlayboy - 09 Jun 2004 07:16 - 7 of 38

Updated 6/8 for Wednesday's market.
Key DOW Levels for 6/9
UP Above 10,450
DN Below 10,350

Quiet Session
Dow trends slowly higher, breaks 10,400.

From prior commentary, "...The index ended the day right at a clear upper trend line at 10,400, which is clearly a crossroads in the charts. A break or bounce at this level could spark a new medium term move. Look for the index to consolidate at the highs before a key move is seen..."
The Dow moved slowly higher today, as the index broke through the major 10,400 level en route to a 41 point gain, as seen in the 15 and 60 Minute Charts. The index has not moved far from 10,400 level, however, as the Dow continues to hold at the key upper trend line of the major trading range, seen in the Daily Chart.

We could see the Dow continue to hold at the highs as a consolidation develops. Such a range would indicate continued strength in the medium term. However, a break below 10,350 will likely make for weakness within the current uptrend.

Short Term Dow

Short term, the Dow has formed a clear trend line beneath the lows of the 5 and 15 Minute Charts. A break of this line at 10,375 will likely make for weakness tomorrow morning.

Medium Term Dow

In the medium term, we closed Longs this morning at 10,350, giving us a 24 point gain. We later re-entered Longs at 10,400, but stopped out with a breakeven trade. We are now out of the market and will watch 10,450 up, and 10,350 down; using 20 point stops.

NASDAQ & S&P

The S&P and NASDAQ each gained slightly for the session, continuing to hold on to yesterday's gains. Look for continued strength unless key lower levels are crossed. *

Summary

The Dow pushed higher today, gaining 41 points for the day. The index is now holding above the key 10,400 level and will likely continue higher should the 10,350 level hold up. Otherwise, a break here will indicate weakness.


ThePlayboy - 09 Jun 2004 07:16 - 8 of 38

DOW-D.gif

daily

zarif - 09 Jun 2004 07:17 - 9 of 38

Morning all.
Martini goodluck with the wireless broadband.
Wonder whats in store for us today?

rgds
zarif

jj50 - 09 Jun 2004 07:50 - 10 of 38

Morning all.

This wireless technology is tempting. As I said to Croc, I just use a long telephone wire out to the garden but the dog has now taken to "accidentally" pulling the connection out from the wall! Having said that, we have thick sea mist today so I don't think I shall be working outside.
Good trading everybody.

roma - 09 Jun 2004 07:58 - 11 of 38

Morning all

biffa18 - 09 Jun 2004 08:03 - 12 of 38

jj50
wireless is well worth it for under 100 quid i use a little vaio batt lasts for 2-3 hrs and just wander about with it even in mates hse close by so can keep a eye on whats going on even when not at home !

jj50 - 09 Jun 2004 08:50 - 13 of 38

biffa

Sounds good. I have noticed in the States everyone seems to use wireless. I shall investigate - thanks biffa.

Fundamentalist - 09 Jun 2004 09:12 - 14 of 38

Morning all

continued thanks martini!

little woman - 09 Jun 2004 09:48 - 15 of 38

Morning all

(I know - I'm late again)

Douggie - 09 Jun 2004 09:59 - 16 of 38

nother late mornin all

Melnibone - 09 Jun 2004 10:05 - 17 of 38

Morning all.

Funny old markets, these.

Everything has crept up to resistance as if it's embarrassed to
be here.
The poor volume, for weeks now, keeps bringing the word 'Apathy'
to mind.

I keep going to open an index short and then think,
"Might as well wait and see if it creeps any higher."
Maybe everyone is thinking the same.

I'm not very well up on what happens when the futures change
from June 18 to the September ones, but it's getting quite
close now. Is this anything to do with the change from June
to September by the Futures Traders, does anybody know?

I remember reading on TT that TomH has June 18th as a key day for
a possible trend change. Possibly some kind of link here?

Melnibone.

zarif - 09 Jun 2004 10:43 - 18 of 38

Good morning,

Hello gang,below is the email i recieved from Tom Hougard.
rgds
zarif

My feeling is that the market is in a quarter end mark up phase which is seeing more upside than even the perma bulls could have hoped for. This is caused by the lack of participation from the big Wall Street firms. The evidence is in volume which is running at around 2/3 of the normal average volume. This does of course necessarily have bearish implications. It just means that no one is interested in selling and buyers have to chase prices higher.



Oil prices look toppy as well and may provide the catalyst for higher prices in the market. I could see a relief rally develop on the back of lower energy prices, but I do think that the market is very vulnerable to exogenous factors relating to oil. In other words traders are keeping a close eye on that sell bottom if a piece of undesirable news item rolls over their monitor.



I spoke to a friend of mine last night who trades the SP500 in Chicago. He told me that he will take Thursday off before the Reagan funeral on Friday. His reason was that Thursday is roll-over day from June to September and it often buggers the geometry of the contract. I have today and Thursday as trading lower but if many traders are taking off early we could find a market far more prone to market manipulation. I would therefore only short weakness.



The 1145 area is a huge target for the market. If we were to close above 1145 the market could theoretically move to 1170. I am not a big fan of this and I am in general not a big fan of the market right now. It feels odd to me and looks most suitable to day trading. Keep an eye on 1145 as the market could see a dramatic reversal at this price.



Oil is falling and I am looking at stocks like BP and Exxon Mobil. XOM has failed to trade significantly lower (only dropped about $2) since I issued a short at $44. We are now back around $44. If both BP and XOM trade higher from here, and can get through $44 it targets the all-time high at 47.75 at a minimum.



Tom

Melnibone - 09 Jun 2004 11:21 - 19 of 38

Thanks for that, Zarif.

Glad to see someone else is thinking along the same lines as me.

How do you get e-mails from Tom?
Is it part of a service that you get with one of your accounts?

Melnibone.

zarif - 09 Jun 2004 11:27 - 20 of 38

Melnibone: I was introduced to him By the "Priest" (Tim Leleux) and we became friends and he keeps sending me the analysis etc.
I think if no-one objects then i will keep posting his email on here(of course with TH,s blessing).

rgds
zarif

Fundamentalist - 09 Jun 2004 11:52 - 21 of 38

Zarif

thanks for that, if you can please keep posting them.

little woman - 09 Jun 2004 12:06 - 22 of 38

Catching up with reading all your postings. This thread is certainly getting more interesting.

I can only trade for short periods at the moments, so I'm now short ITV & CTM. Both very small positions.

Big Al - 09 Jun 2004 12:11 - 23 of 38

Afternoon! Will try to post here more often, but can't promise.

My current take on the market is first S&P and then Dow last night (as shown by TP's chart above) may very well have broken out of a bullish flag. Nasdaq broke 2000 again a few days ago and a couple of weeks back there was a note that small cap stock buying had picked up again over the pond. FTSE as usual is dithering, but our American friends are in bullish mood right now.

The next couple of days will be quiet as everyone says bye-bye to dear old Ronnie, the thickest Prez until the current one arrived. ;-)

As for me, I'm currently long ALM, AQP, IMG, JKX, ROK and short WBY.

Finally, I went "wireless" last month and very good it is too. Problem is battery in laptop is well past its sell-by date. ;-( Got my gear from the following website where they have a great chat facility to ask all the questions you want to ask.

http://www.dsl-warehouse.co.uk

Have a good day.

Al
;-)
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