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Finals OSH : Oasis Healthcare WDSW : Wyndeham Press Group AGM / EGM ANW : Aberdeen New Thai PNS : Panther Securities SSL : SSL International Economic 09.30 UK May/April labour market report Chancellor of the Exchequer Gordon Brown, BoE governor Mervyn King deliverannual Mansion House speeches (evening) 09.30 Unemployment (Change 000s - Month) May est -5.0 prev -6.0 09.30 Unemployment (Rate - Month) May est 2.9% prev 2.9%		Company  Bear Stearns Companies Inc (BSC)  Best Buy Co. (BBY)  Culp Inc. (CFI)  Cytokinetics Inc (CYTK)  Ennis Business Forms Inc. (EBF)  IDT Corp (IDT/C)  Jabil Circuit Inc (JBL)  John Wiley & Sons Inc (JWA)  KB Home (KBH)  Lennar Corp. (LEN)  Medical Technology Systems (MPP)  Mobile Telesystems (MBT)  Progress Software Corp (PRGS)  Somanetics Corp (SMTS)Economic1.30 pm BST Building Permits 1.30 pm BST Housing Starts 2.15 pm BST Capacity Utilization 2.15 pm BST Industrial Production 7.00 pm BST Fed's Beige Book		Economic
Interim Ex Dividend: BNKR : Bankers IT - 2(p), BSET : British Assets Trust - 1.3(p), DWN : Dawson Holdings - 2.8(p), LSB : London Scottish Bank - 1.7(p), ROM : Romag Holdings - 0.25(p) , SMJ : Smart (J.) & Co (Contractors) - 2.9(p) ULT : Ultrasis PLC - 3(p)Final Ex Dividend: ACL : Acal - 14(p), BKIR : Bank of Ireland (Gov) - 20.96(p), BWNG : Brown (N) Group - 4.1(p) , CNA : Centrica - 3.7(p) ,CPL : Chapelthorpe - 0.7(p), HLCL : Helical Bar - 10(p), III : 3i Group - 8.9(p), KESA : Kesa Electricals - 7.5(p), LIO : Liontrust Asset Management - 6.75(p), LMSO : London Merchant Securities - 4.4(p) , MEG : Mice Group - 1.3(p) , MRV : Murray VCT2 - 2.5(p) , MTC : Mothercare - 4(p) , MUV : Murray VCT4 - 1.2(p) , MYV : Murray VCT3 - 2(p) , , , CP : RIT Capital Partners - 3.1(p) , SVT : Severn Trent - 29.3(p) , TEF : Telford Homes - 3(p) , VIN : Value & Income Trust - 3(p) , WCW : Walker Crips Weddle Becks - 3(p) , YNGA : Young & Co's Brewery - 11.65(p)

Evening.

Long 3 oil stocks and short one dog of a recruitment company.

jj - thanks. Will be around on and off tomorrow. Personally think oil stocks will take care of themselves. Read an interesting article today in which most Geologists now believe the world will never again find more oil then it consumes. The human race has found more than it has consumed for a century or more, but it may be those days are over. There is even a huge question mark over whether current estimated reserves are indeed what they are presumed to be. First Shell, then BP and quite possible individual countries too.

Makes you think.

Al
;-)

WEDS FTSE PP

R2 4480
R1 4470
PP 4451
S1 4440
S2 4422

Ftse closed above its pp and gained 1.1pts in the auction, uptrend off the low intact above 45 cash, dow strength with a close above 10400 imho (375 atm)




Updated 6/15 for Wednesday's market.
Key DOW Levels for 6/16
UP Above 10,435
DN Below 10,300

Volatile Session
Dow rallies at Open, but falls sharply to the Close.

From prior commentary, "...We could see the index hold at the highs for some time, as a trading range develops, especially if 10,300 continues to hold..."
The Dow broke through 10,340 early in the session, which resulted in strength throughout most of the day, as seen in the 15 and 60 Minute Charts. However, the Dow held firmly at resistance at 10,430 before falling to the Close.

The index held on to a 46 point gain, but may now be forming a large range at the highs from 10,300 to 10,430, seen in the 60 Minute Chart.

Look for the index to trade within the boundaries of this range before another major medium term move is seen. A break either way should provide solid direction. Watch 10,300 down, and 10,430 up tomorrow.

Short Term Dow

Short term, the Dow has formed a clear trend line beneath the lows of the late-day upmove, seen in the 1 Minute Chart. A downside break through the line at 10,370 will likely make for weakness tomorrow morning.

Medium Term Dow

In the medium term, we covered Shorts this morning at the Open at 10,385, giving us a 38 point loss. We later entered Longs at 10,404, but stopped out at the entry due to the Breakeven Rule. We are now out of the market and will widen our entry points to 10,435 up, and 10,300 down; using 20 point stops.

NASDAQ & S&P

The S&P and NASDAQ each gapped higher today, making for strength on the session. However, key ranges have now formed, which we will watch closely tomorrow. *

Summary

The Dow rallied at the Open, but held at resistance, forming a large trading range at the highs from 10,300 to 10,430. Look for further range movement within these boundaries until a break occurs.

daily

morning all.

morning campers,

after the rise in the far east last night,me think its going to be a blue screen day :-)

Mega...

Morning all.

Morning all

mornin all

mornin all

How nice to see the FTSE behaving itself and heading upwards this
morning - plus the sun is shining, so what more do we need?
Whatever you're doing today - be successful people!!

Morning all.

Small rally on light volume. Nothing to excite me.

Dow is up at the top of the Daily and Weekly downtrend channel.
Nasdaq and the Nas100 are flirting with 2000/1500 again.
S&P having trouble getting back above 1140.
Plenty of gaps left behind, lower, to fill.

Still looking for US Indice shorts, unless we breakout higher and
turn the swing charts around.

Guess we'll do the usual and wait for the US lead.

Melnibone.

Now I know why PLR hasn't moved. Big seller reported.

Watching to see which way she goes.

long BLND 680.5

Morning all

DAX falls today; it may decline further to 3825 - 3800, followed by new bull market to 4500



June 16, 2004 - EUROPE



- Canadian factory shipments rose 0.5 percent to C$48.5 billion ($35.2 billion) in April, the fifth straight gain, led by record demand for lumber. Unfilled orders and new orders both increased, as did inventories, Statistics Canada said in Ottawa. Manufacturers are benefiting from stronger U.S. and overseas demand this year, and from a drop in the Canadian dollar. Half of the country's factory output is exported. Canada's dollar has declined 5.2 percent this year, easing pressure on exporters after last year's record 21 percent rise.


- Gold futures in New York had their biggest gain in two weeks as an increase in some U.S. consumer prices matched economists' forecasts, easing concern the Federal Reserve may quicken its pace of interest-rate increases. Higher rates erode gold's appeal as a hedge against inflation. The metal also rose after Fed Chairman Alan Greenspan said inflation is ``not likely to be a serious concern'' and rate changes probably will be measured. Gold had fallen 2.6 percent since June 7 after Greenspan said the Fed ``is prepared to do what is required'' to head off rising consumer prices. Gold for August delivery rose $4.50, or 1.2 percent, to $388.70 an ounce, the biggest gain for a most-active contract since May 27. The metal yesterday fell to a three-week low of $384.20.


- U.K. government figures are understating growth in Europe's second-biggest economy and will be revised up over the summer, a forecasting group said. Gross domestic product rose at a quarterly rate of 0.6 percent in the first quarter, compared with 0.9 percent growth in the fourth quarter of last year. First-quarter growth may be raised on June 30, the ITEM Club said. ``The official data have been lagging the upturn and will surely be revised up over the summer,'' said Peter Spencer, chief economic adviser to the group.


- Crude oil futures in New York on Tuesday rose as much as 0.9 percent as attacks on two Iraqi oil pipelines heightened concern about the security of supplies after the U.S. hands over control of the country on June 30. The bombing of a pipeline in the south halted exports through Iraq's two Persian Gulf terminals yesterday. Hours later, a pipeline from the country's northern oil fields at Kirkuk to a refinery was blown up, Agence France-Presse reported, citing Adel Kazzaz, a director general of the Northern Oil Co. Crude oil for August delivery, the most active contract, rose as much as 35 cents, or 0.9 percent, to $37.77 a barrel in after-hours trading on the New York Mercantile Exchange. It traded at $37.45 at 9:07 a.m. Singapore time. The July contract rose as much as 1 percent to $37.57 a barrel.






Equity Market Summary -



Asian stocks rose today after U.S. Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan said interest rate increases may be ``measured'' because inflation isn't a serious threat. The Morgan Stanley Capital International Asia-Pacific Index, which tracks more than 900 stocks, jumped 1.8 percent to 89.94 as of 10:27 a.m. in Tokyo. Japan's Nikkei 225 Stock Average advanced 2.4 percent, while the broader Topix index gained 1.5 percent. South Korea's Kospi index climbed 1.8 percent. All benchmarks in markets in Asia opened for trading advanced.

U.S. stocks rallied yesterday on a tame inflation report. Stocks pared their gains but finished well in positive territory, reversing most of Mondays losses. The core CPI figure posted its smallest increase in three months in May, dispelling inflation fears, at least for now. Dovish comments made by Chairman Greenspan during the Q&A session of the confirmation hearings also contributed to investors optimism.

European stocks rose Tuesday after a U.S. inflation report eased concern that the Federal Reserve will raise interest rates more than investors had expected. The Dow Jones Stoxx 50 Index rose 0.8 percent to 2710.53. The Stoxx 600 advanced 0.7 percent. The Euro Stoxx 50, a measure for the 12 countries sharing the euro, added 1 percent. Benchmark indexes rose in all 17 Western European markets. France's CAC 40 Index and Germany's DAX Index gained 1 percent, while the U.K.'s FTSE 100 Index increased 0.6 percent. June futures on the Euro Stoxx 50 added 1.6 percent.




Equity Technicals:





- DAX Index - the index rose back to just below 4000, but may fall today. We continue to hold on to the short-term scenario of a pullback to ideally 3825 - 3800 before the bullish medium-term view reasserts. However, the caveat remains -- that is, if the DAX goes through 4050, then it is unlikely that we will see this magnitude of a pullback. Nonetheless, the medium-term outlook remains unchanged -- expect a new upwards cycle which should go on and challenge the 4175 top further out, and perhaps go on and focus at a 4500 upside target later in the year. However, if the rally extends above 4,050, then the +pullback scenario+ is probably wrong.


- FTSE 100 Index - the index rose further and has been to 4463, but may sell-off today. The view is unchanged -- we still hold out for the scenario of a short-term cascade to the 4395 area. . However, the view of a large pullback may still be nullified if the index rallies above 4515. But despite this, continue to make allowances for a +test of the base+ type of corrective decline, the target of which is the area of 4395 - 4380 late in the week -- unless of course the upside swing level is blown away.. The next upwards phase from there may kick off a new upside sequence which will go on and challenge the 4600 top, and perhaps extend gains further towards 4750 later in the year.


- S&P 500 - the index did bounce back to 1137 yesterday, but lost ground at the close. Further sell-off later in the the week may yet bring the index to at least 1115. We may yet a shot at 1100 - 1090 area before the bull is set loose. In any case, recent action is indeed supportive of the view that the new bull market cycle may have began and would accelerate higher at some point. The new upwards phase may go on and challenge the 1165 top, and thereafter extend gains to 1225 - 1230 later in the year.


- Dow Jones Ind Ave. - the index did bounce back to 10,425 yesterday, higher than expected. Nonetheless, the scenario remains -- we may yet see further declines to at least 10,150 in the next few days. And we still are biased for a bigger decline to 10,1000 -10,000. Nonetheless, a new bull market waits in the wings to be confirmed -- eventually, we expect to see a rally to the 10,800 top, and perhaps further appreciation towards 11,500 later in the year.


- NDX 100 - we did see an awesome pullback to 1487, but the index should continue to trade lower in the next few days. The index may do a corrective decline back to at least 1440, possibly even to 1405 - 1395 area -- a +test of the base+ type of correction. A new bull market waits in the wings -- we expect to see a test of the 1560 top thereafter, and perhaps further appreciation towards 1700 later in the year.


- Nikkei - the index rose somewhat on good fundamental news . . . But nonetheless, we may yet that +test of the base+ decline to 11,000. Allow even for a retest of the base, which in this case may be 10,900. A new bull market should emanate from there, which may have 14,000 as the major goal late in the year. The short-term view however fails if the current rally goes above 11,600.


- Hang Seng - the index was initially higher today but faded at the close, and should resume the decline later in the week. Still make allowances for a corrective decline back to 11,700 from here, a +test of the base+ type of retracement. The bull markets should then resume and may target the 16,500 - 17,000 area later in the year.

Doubled my MRS at 250p

Copy Of Tom Hougards Email:
Good morning,



I am somewhat surprised by the strength in the European markets this morning, but then again although Dow sold off the NASDAQ did not.



Given that we are trading well above 1132 in the Globex market I will treat the market with a bullish bias. Only a move below 1128 will get me bearish again. I got today as a down day, grinding lower, but I am somewhat sceptical of this right now given the strength in the European indices. As long as we are holding above 1132 the market has a chance of getting above 1142.



The only problem is volume. On this leg higher the volume has been declining. However, there are a large number of contracts outstanding for the expiration and I wonder if we will see a short squeeze develop. My Map sometimes shows a grinding day lower when we gap higher and just trade near the highs for the day. This is a possibility today.



Essentially the market is probing the ranges between 1120 and 1140. The market is bullish right now and a move above 1142 will target 1150. I am more inclined to think that we will see a range day if we dont break down.



I shorted the market yesterday as I said I would. I got the lower prices towards the end of the day. Unfortunately I have doubts whether my bearish call for Wedneday will hold true so I have stopped myself out at 1134 and remain flat right now, waiting for the cash market to open.



Tom

Big Al

'Doubled my MRS at 250p'

Sounds painful...I think you should have paid more!

Wot a dull market, churn churn!

Long Fokine (pronounce it carefully), Mine (each way) and Surf the Net at Royal Ascot!!! Oh and Powerscourt! Little Lucky 15 bet. ;)

amberjane

MM trying to scare a few early on methinks. Hasn't quite worked out that way! ;-))

I hope.