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Traders Thread Wednesday 21st July 2004 (CROC)     

Martini - 20 Jul 2004 21:16

Big Al - 21 Jul 2004 08:29 - 4 of 11

Morning.

Druid2 - 21 Jul 2004 09:14 - 5 of 11

Morning all. BARC looking better today. Nice rise from yesterday's lows.

seawallwalker - 21 Jul 2004 10:35 - 6 of 11

Morning all.

RTO on the way up at last!

Still think it will get bought out, probably sooner than later.

High trades yesterday makes me think others are of the same opinion.

SEY moving up still, more results due next week I think, from new drilling.

JKX backtracking again towards 120p, that seems to be the level just now.

PLR stuck in a rut. Needs a kick up the b** I think.

Some good risers across the board, makes a change.

stockbunny - 21 Jul 2004 10:52 - 7 of 11

Hey! Good start to the day - be lucky all!!

Melnibone - 21 Jul 2004 18:44 - 8 of 11

Evening all.
This thread appears to have been quiet today.
Nobody got any views?

Well, we've had Greenspan and we've had the gap open higher courtesy
of M$FT, amongst others.
Gap has been closed and as yet the institutions do not appear interested
in committing funds.

I'm looking at 5min candles on the UKX/SPX/NDX/EUSTOXX50 since 1500Hrs,
and you could practically hold a ruler along them as they track lower.
If the SPX/NDX 1100/1400 doesn't hold it looks like we're going to
test the bottom of the ranges again.
If that's the case, then all we've had is a bit of Bear profit taking,
with a mild squeeze to gap open.
I'll see what happens this evening before making any plans for tomorrow.
Very difficult to come to any conclusions as to which direction you want
to trade at the moment, IMHO.
Ideal conditions for feeding some of your profit back to the market, and
we don't want that.

Melnibone.

little woman - 21 Jul 2004 20:44 - 9 of 11

Mel - any chance you could let me (& sure others too) know what Greenspan had to say this time....... I seem to be behind in finding out news generally.

Melnibone - 21 Jul 2004 21:14 - 10 of 11


Main points from Greenspan, copied from MaM's news tab.
Not a lot of difference really.

It would appear rates are going up and the Dollar following it.
This will drop Gold if it continues and as the US stocks are
worth more, (because the Dollar has gone up), foreign holders
may sell some of their holdings which will drop US indices
which will drop the Eurozone indices.
Just a possibility, not a prediction, but today's US charts seem
to resemble a staircase to me.

WASHINGTON (AFX) - On Capitol Hill for a second day of testimony Wednesday, Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan repeated that he believes the U.S. economy is strengthening and inflation remains under control.

Greenspan's prepared testimony was identical to Tuesday's testimony at the Senate Banking Committee.

He said the Fed would likely raise interest rates at a 'measured' pace.

Under questioning from the House Financial Services Committee, Greenspan strongly defended the Fed's record over the past 15 years, denying that its low interest rate policies had fostered unsustainable bubbles in the equity, fixed-income and real estate markets.

The Fed has been 'successful' in avoiding the excesses of financial bubbles, Greenspan said.

In a commentary earlier this week, Morgan Stanley chief economist Stephen Roach charged that the Fed was running the world's largest hedge fund.

The Fed 'remains in denial on this key issue -- refusing to concede that monetary policy must take asset inflation into account,' Roach wrote. Both banks and consumers have become addicted to low rates, just as equity investors were in the late 1990s, he said.

The twin deficits - the federal budget and the current account - are funded by the carry trade that is now threatened by the Fed's move to higher rates, Roach said.

When asked to respond to Roach, Greenspan said the Fed is well aware of the 'great distortions' that can be created when low rates are 'locked in' for a long period. He said the Fed has been successful in minimizing secondary distortions from its policies.

So-called carry trades -- in which investors borrow short-term money at low rates and lend it out longer-term at higher yields -- are normal and justified, Greenspan said.

He said investors are in the process of unwinding the extreme carry trades fostered by the Fed's very low interest rates as the Fed begins to tighten policy. In his written testimony, he said it was inevitable that some creditors and investors 'will sustain capital losses as rates rise.'

Greenspan said capital spending by U.S. businesses is still 'significantly' short of what would be expected in a recovery. He said businesses are still cautious following the bursting of the investment bubble of the late 1990s and the fallout of the corporate governance scandals.

The return of business confidence and a gradual increase in capital spending 'bodes well' for the economy in 2005, Greenspan said.

In referring to the recent slower economic data as merely a 'short-lived' soft spot, Greenspan's testimony battered the bond market Tuesday with a more hawkish stance than traders had expected. Bonds were lower again on Wednesday.

In his testimony both days, Greenspan emphasized the strength of the economic recovery and the benign inflationary environment that will most likely allow the Federal Open Market Committee to raise interest rates at a gradual pace.

He said both borrowers and lenders were well prepared for a faster pace of tightening if that's necessary to maintain price stability.

The FOMC tweaked its economic forecast, calling for slightly stronger growth in the second half of the year than the first and slightly less inflation.

The fixed income markets had been pricing an expectation that the FOMC would slow the pace of its rate hikes in the face of a slower economy. But after Greenspan spoke, the market was again pricing in rate hikes at each of the next four meetings this year.

There are greater risks to the economy from the current low rate environment than from a transition to higher rates, Greenspan told lawmakers.

He said the Fed believed that the recent pickup in inflation was largely due to transitory factors, but cautioned that the central bank was still worried that 'there are not more deep-seated forces emerging' to boost inflation as a result of such low interest rates.

'Accordingly, in assessing the appropriateness of the stance of policy, the Federal Reserve will pay close attention to incoming data, especially costs and prices,' he said.

The Fed decided on June 30 to raise short-term interest rates to 1.25 percent from 1 percent. That was the first tightening in four years. In the statement, the FOMC said that future rate hikes were needed at a measured pace.

Greenspan laid out two paths for interest rates -- a measured pace or a 'less gradual' approach.

Greenspan said that if rate hikes can proceed at a measured pace, 'a relatively smooth adjustment of businesses and households to a more typical level of interest rates seems likely.'

But the economy appears strong enough to handle a less-than-gradual monetary policy adjustment, he said.

'Even if economic developments dictate that the stance of policy must be adjusted in a less gradual manner to ensure price stability, our economy appears to have prepared itself for a more dynamic adjustment of interest rates,' Greenspan said.

This story was supplied by CBSMarketWatch. For further information see www.cbsmarketwatch.com.

Melnibone.

little woman - 21 Jul 2004 21:50 - 11 of 11

thanks Melnibone,

Is it my imagination but does Greenspan (sorry but I can't find a more polite ways of saying it) live in the real world? But of course he does, hes the chairman of the federal reserve..............
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