CPG ADRS UP 5%+ overnight in USA

OUTLOOK Compass to reveal flat FY profit, in line with Sept alert

LONDON (AFX) - Compass Group PLC is set to reveal today that underlying profit was virtually flat in the year to Sept 30 following a recent dire profit alert from the world's biggest caterer.
According to a consensus of 18 financial analysts provided by the company itself, the UK food service group will report pretax profit, before exceptional items and goodwill amortisation, of 656 mln stg up from 654 mln a year earlier. Forecasts range from 645 to 665 mln stg.
Analysts were forced to pare their predictions after Compass stunned investors on Sept 9 with a warning that annual profits would be 30 mln stg less than previously forecast this year and beyond.
It warned profit will be reduced by a further 15 mln stg per year from 2005 as it continues to puq money into its pension funds.
"The September profit warning... means that 2004 profits will be broadly unchanged," Williams de Broe analyst Andrew Darke said.
"For investors, resolving the issue as to whether the shortfall from previous expectations was attributable to one-off items or evidence of a weakness in the business model remains key," he added.
The company pinned the blame on financial difficulties at one of its major distributors, weaker than expected margins on contracts to deliver lunches to British schoolchildren and weak trading at some of its European operations.
Compass said the transfer of its business to a new, more expensive, distributor will cost it around 12.5 mln stg per year.
It was forced to make the switch after it became clear the incumbent partner, which it had been assisting financially, was to go into liquidation.
The company said weaker than anticipated profit margins on contracts with UK Local Education Authorities to supply school meals will crimp profit by a further 6.25 mln stg per year.
A similar reduction will result after the company incurred higher than expected start-up costs after securing a number of in-store restaurant contracts.
And weak trading conditions over the summer in Continental Europe, particularly France and the Netherlands, is set to wipe around 5 mln stg from its bottom line.
Broker Deutsche Bank says concerns that margins at Compass' key UK catering operations will be further eroded over the longer term means the shares merit no more than a 'hold' rating at current levels.
That despite the stock having lost nearly a quarter of its value since the September warning.
rob.branch@afxnews.com

morning all

LONDON (AFX) - Leading shares are expected to open slightly higher this morning, helped by a late recovery on Wall Street last night, while hopes of further upbeat UK earnings news should also provide some support, dealers said.
According to spread-betting firm IG Index, the FTSE 100 index is seen around 5 points higher at 4,754 after closing at 4,749.8 yesterday.
On Wall Street last night, US stocks ended mixed in choppy trading as the Nasdaq eked out a gain and blue chips fell, pressured by a sales warning from Wal-Mart as well continuing concerns over the economic impact of a weak dollar.
The DJIA closed down 46.33 points at 10,475.90, but off an intraday low of 10,417.08, while the Nasdaq Coqosite Index climbed 4.9 points to 2,106.87.
Across Asia, the Nikkei 225 index closed 78.64 points lower at 10,899.25, while the Hang Seng ended the morning 31.77 points higher at 14,098.68.

MARKETS
FTSE 100 4,749.8, up 8.3
FTSE 250 6,589.7, down 4.3
DJIA 10,475.90, down 46.30
Nasdaq Coq 2,106.87, up 4.90
S&P 500 1,178.55, down 4.10
Tokyo: Nikkei closed at 10,899.25, down 78.64
Hang Seng midday 14,098.68, up 31.77
Gold 452.85 usd (452.50 usd)
Oil - Brent Jan 45.75 usd (44.57 usd)

BREAKING NEWS
* Audit office set to probe sales of PFI equity; report could see contractors forced to share windfall gains with public sector - FT
* Nursing home operator NHP agrees a 564 mln stg cash bid from Blackstone
* Mortgage approvals fell to their lowest level for almost five years last month
* Easy Group signs a deal with T-Mobile to offer mobile services in the UK
* Gazprom urged to launch oil coup; Deutsche Bank advises gas monopoly to buy leading domestic companies; move seen as taking Russian economy back to Soviet past - FT
* MELROSE unveils 744 mln stg offer for NOVAR
* Cinven, the venture capital company, considering a takeover offer for NOVAR - Times
* Mystery suitor courts MERRYDOWN - Times
* COURTS fails to reach deal with bankers - FT
* COURTS set to bring in administrator; rivals line up to buy prime stores - Times
* HARMONY GOLD MINING buys 10.8 pct of GOLD FIELDS through the first phase of its hostile 3.5 bln stg takeover bid; along with a commitment from Norilsk Nickel, Harmony now owns or has undertakings for 30.9 pct of its larger rival's shares - Times

PRESS COMMENT
FT
THE LEX COLUMN comments on Ofgem's review of electricity distribution prices (final price controls cuts Britain's 14 distribution companies a fair bit of slack), Futures exchange, ITV (appears little need to rush in and buy the shares now), Wal-Mart (still enjoys a healthy price-earnings premium to its peer group; it must re-invigorate its slowing sales line to avoid that premium being squeezed further) - ASOS (does look like some potential for growth)
Times
RUMOUR OF THE DAY: DE VERE GROUP (word it is in advanced talks over its first overseas management contract) - DIRECTORS' DEALINGS: GREAT PORTLAND ESTATES (chairman sells stock worth 1.9 mln stg) - TErUS: SEVERN TRENT (only hold), MITIE (worth buying in the expectation that the new structure will deliver continued growth), BSS (buy)
Express
WHO'S DEALING: FORMJET (chairman and chief executive buys 100,000 shares at 4.18 pence) - SHARE WHISPER: GLOTEL (talk its forthcoming results will please investors) - BROKER'S VIEW: REXAM (stop buying - Deutsche Bank)
Independent
THE INVESTMENT COLUMN: BSS (buy), CRESTON (buy), BELHAVEN (sell) - INCAT INTERNATIONAL (traders expecting strong debut today)
Guardian
GAME GROUP (consoles shortage) - MICROEMISSIVE DISPLAYS (dealers expecting a strong debut this morning)
Telegraph
QUESTOR: BT GROUP (if the regulator can resist being unduly harsh to the former monopoly, the shares will look cheap), MITIE (travelled far enough), BSS (hang on)
Mail
TATE & LYLE (FTSE 100 promotion hopes) - ATI OIL (bright Ofex debut yesterday)

Morning all.

One for Daves Dazzlers.

RTO trading statement out. Here is the summary.

Rentokil sees further deterioration in trading results into H1 2005
AFX


LONDON (AFX) - Rentokil Initial PLC said it expects a further deterioration in trading results into the first half of 2005 and that its performance for 2005 as a whole is likely to be weaker than in 2004.

The consumer goods group reiterated that pretax profit for the year 2004, at constant average 2003 exchange rates, should be 'not less than 350 mln stg.'

The company, which also announced a trading update for the 10 months to end October, said it will sell the linen and garment elements of its UK Hygiene business and that it is looking at its options for its loss-making German hospital textiles activity.

Ten-month pretax profit fell 11.9 pct to 293.9 mln stg, while sales from continuing operations climbed 1.9 pct to 2.06 bln stg.

The company said it has no specific news on its search for a new chief executive but warned that the search could take some time.

Will it, won't it.
The DOW is at major resistance hitting this resitance point for the 4th time since the dot com boom of 2000. The first chart shows a long term view and the second a year chart shows more clearly where the breakout point is. If the DOW breaks out any guesses for 2005 are we into the next bullrun.

Morning punters!

AEY - interesting deals
http://www.uk-wire.com/cgi-bin/articles/20041130070005M9881.html

FFY - very bullish update
http://www.uk-wire.com/cgi-bin/articles/200411300700217943F.html

RTO - not smart, not clever?
http://www.uk-wire.com/cgi-bin/articles/200411300700077874F.html

BNH - been watching these on and off
http://www.uk-wire.com/cgi-bin/articles/200411300700057836F.html

RFD - get you ice-cream here!
http://www.uk-wire.com/cgi-bin/articles/200411300700087901F.html

WNER - seem ahead at interims
http://www.uk-wire.com/cgi-bin/articles/200411300700137922F.html

NRK - could be good for banking sector?
http://www.uk-wire.com/cgi-bin/articles/200411300700177933F.html

ETI - nicely ahead of forecasts, divi up way ahead
http://www.uk-wire.com/cgi-bin/articles/200411300700217944F.html

TPT - that's why they've flown this year
http://www.uk-wire.com/cgi-bin/articles/200411300700227945F.html

ESH - have been watching these too. Can't see much wrong
http://www.uk-wire.com/cgi-bin/articles/200411300700257951F.html

CNT - bullish and nice FY
http://www.uk-wire.com/cgi-bin/articles/200411300700317956F.html

ITL - loss after exceptionals, but seem to be going well. Finally sprung back into life the past month
http://www.uk-wire.com/cgi-bin/articles/200411300700467988F.html

PTL - losses reduced. Another trading fave
http://www.uk-wire.com/cgi-bin/articles/200411300700477989F.html

XTL - interesting addition to the board? Ambition?
http://www.uk-wire.com/cgi-bin/articles/200411300721108004F.html

BUR - drilling update
http://www.uk-wire.com/cgi-bin/articles/200411300739068010F.html

Think that's about it.

FWIW, I've got longs on AUW, BTSM, ERT, ITM, LAS, NLR, PCI, PDH, RTN with some OK and some on their stops.

Have a good day.

Morning all.

UK and European brokers' recommendations issued today, as collated by AFX News from a range of market sources.


CAZENOVE
Downgrade Underperform from in-line TF1, cuts target to 23 eur from 24 -- Reiterate Outperform C&W, ups fair value to 135 pence from 125, raises revenue estimates

DEUTSCHE BANK
Upgrade Buy from hold Pierre & Vacances, ups target to 100 eur from 78 -- Reiterate Gamesa, cuts target to 13.2 eur from 13.6, reduces estimates

ABN AMRO
Upgrade Buy from reduce Novartis -- Upgrade Buy from add STMicro (intraday yesterday)

CSFB
Upgrade Outperform from neutral Lafarge, ups target to 83 eur from 80 -- Reiterate Reiterate Neutral Northern Rock, cuts target to 960 pence from 1,060 -- Underperform Elisa, raises target to 11.5 eur target -- Outperform BAE, ups target to 275 pence from 240 -- Greek Banks: reiterate Neutral Alpha Bank, ups target to 24.4 eur from 23.7; Neutral EFG, ups target to 21.54 eur from 20.7; Outperform National Bank of Greece, ups target to 25.7 eur from 24.2, top sector pick

UBS
Downgrade Neutral from buy Serono -- Reiterate Neutral Inditex, ups target to 23 eur from 22 -- Neutral AB Foods, ups target to 720 pence from 700 -- Neutral MITIE Group, ups target to 160 pence from 140 -- Neutral Smith & Nephew, ups target to 575 pence from 550 -- Neutral Nestle, cuts target to 305 sfr from 315

DRESDNER KLEINWORT
Upgrade Add from hold Iqerial Tobacco, ups target to 1,450 pence from 1,320 -- Initiate Buy K&S, target 45 eur

PANMURE GORDON
Upgrade Buy from hold Compass Group, ups target to 290 pence from 270 -- Downgrade Sell from hold Rentokil Initial, cuts target to 130 pence from 140 --Upgrade Buy from hold Homeserve, ups target to 800 pence from 675 -- Upgrade Buy from hold Morse, target 115 pence -- Upgrade Buy from hold Punch Taverns, ups target to 650 pence from 620 -- Reiterate Buy Enterprise Inns, ups target to 750 pence from 700 -- Buy Topps Tiles, ups target to 250 pence from 220

CAI CHEUVREUX
Downgrade Sell from underperform BBVA -- Initiate Outperform Nexity, target 24 eur -- Reiterate Outperform GFK, ups target to 31.5 eur from 27.0, raises estimates -- UK Pubs: Resume coverage on sector; favour Punch Taverns and Enterprise Inns

ING
Downgrade Hold from buy BAE Systems -- Initiate Hold Euler Hermes

BRIDGEWELL SECS
Upgrade Overweight from neutral Enterprise Inns

SEYMOUR PIERCE
Downgrade Underperform from hold Game Group

SHORE CAPITAL
Downgrade to Sell Coqutacenter

JP MORGAN
UK Newspapers: Initiate Overweight Daily Mail & General, fair value 833 pence; Initiate Neutral Johnston Press, fair value 556 pence; Initiate Neutral Trinity Mirror, fair value 615 pence -- Reiterate Neutral British Land, ups fair value to 790 pence from 720

CITIGROUP SMITH BARNEY
Initiate Hold Gamesa (intraday yesterday) -- Reiterate Hold GKN, up target to 220 pence from 200 -- Hold MFI, ups target to 117 pence from 110 -- Hold Faurecia, cuts target to 60 eur from 65 -- Buy Maillis, ups target to 4.2 eir from 4.0

SANFORD BERNSTEIN
Initiate Market Perform Portugal Telecom, target 9.25 eur

SG SECURITIES
Premium List: Adds Philips (Buy, fair value 23 eur) Capital Goods: Cuts sector stance to Neutral from overweight

NUMIS
Reiterate Buy Enterprise Inns, ups target to 780 pence from 720 -- Buy Topps Tiles, ups target to 250 pence from 220 -- Buy Liontrust, cuts target to 360 pence from 400

WESTLB
Reiterate Outperform Vossloh, ups target to 39 sfr from 37 -- Outperform Grenke Leasing, ups target to 36 eur from 32

MERRILL LYNCH
Reiterate Buy London Merchant Securities, target 220 pence, ups NAV estimates -- Oils: Increases forecasts for 4Q and 2005; raises Brent forecasts and global refining margin; Reiterate Buy Buy Paladin, ups target to 200 pence from 175; Buy Tullow Oil, ups target to 175 pence from 150

London shares - midmorning features

FTSE 100 risers
Enterprise Inns 680 up 17-1/2
Solid FY results; Arbuthnot/CAI Cheuvreux/Merrill Lynch/Panmure positive
BAE Systems 249-1/2 up 2-1/2
'Outperform' with target upped to 275 pence from 240 - CSFB
mm02 116 up 1
NTT DoCoMo i-mode agreement
Friends Provident 151 up 3/4
Company to raise 380 mln stg via securitisation
3i Group 650-1/2 up 2-1/2
'Outperform' - Cazenove
J Sainsbury 263 up 3/4
Company buys East Midlands convenience store operator JB Beaumont
Northern Rock 727 up 2
In-line trading statement; CAI Cheuvreux/Merrill/WestLB positive
BT Group 195-1/4 up 1/2
Positive comment in Daily Telegraph
Prudential 420 up 1/4
CAI Cheuvreux ups target to 477 pence from 453
Associated British Foods 751-1/2 up 2
UBS ups target to 720 pence from 70

FTSE 100 fallers
Rentokil Initial 140-1/2 down 9-1/2
Brokers negative after deteriorating results warning
Compass Group 226 down 14-1/2
Problem contracts dent FY numbers
Cairn Energy 1,500 down 37
Profit-taking
Xstrata 932-1/2 down 8-1/2
WMC bid situation
Reed Elsevier 486 down 3-1/2
Trading update this week

FTSE 250 risers
George Wiqey 356-1/4 up 7-1/2
Nationwide survey reassures
Barratt Developments 512-1/2 up 4
Nationwide survey reassures
Morgan Crucible 166 up 2-1/2
Trading update Dec 6
Mitchells & Butlers 306-1/2 up 5
Results due tomorrow
Novar 162 up 2
Cinven counter-bid hopes
Punch Taverns 602-1/2 up 4-1/2
CAI Cheuvreux favourite; Panmure 'buy' from 'hold with target upped to 650p
WS Atkins 696-1/2 up 1-1/2
Arbuthnot 'buy'
London Merchant Securities 202 up 2
Merrill Lynch 'buy' with 220 pence target & NAV estimates upped
Tullow Oil 148 up 1/4
Merrill Lynch 'buy' with target upped to 175 pence from 150

FTSE 250 fallers
Thus Group 13-3/4 down 3/4
With Kingston
Burren Energy 412-1/2 down 21-3/4
Company teqorarily suspends drilling on BO60 well in Turkmenistan
Arla Foods 55-1/2 down 1-1/2
Panmure Gordon 'sell' with 45 pence target after 18-month results
John Laing 234 down 6
Profit-taking
Premier Oil 560-1/2 down 11-1/2
Woodside to suspend Tiof-3 ST2 appraisal well offshore Mauritania
SSL International 279-3/4 down 5
Withdrawal of speculative support
Homeserve 680 down 8-1/2
Underlying interim profits lower
Burberry Group 403 down 4-1/2
'Chavs' effect
Manchester United 273-1/4 down 3
Glazer stake uncertainties
PHS Group 70-1/2 down 1/4
Arbuthnot 'sell'

Other risers
Aricom 37-1/2 up 6-1/2
Company plans to develop Kuranakh mine in Russia
Topps Tiles 215-1/2 up 2
Strong FY results; Seymour Pierce 'buy'; Panmure 'buy' with 250p target
AdVal Group 2.00 up 0.25
Narrowing H1 losses; on track for profitability
Intec Telecom Systems 70-1/4 up 3-3/4
54 pct rise in underlying FY profits
Kingston Communications 62-1/2 up 2
Dividends restored after return to profits midway
Generics Group 8.75 up 0.25
Significant reduction in nine-moth losses
INCAT International 133-1/2
New issue placed at 128 pence
MicroEmissive 152-1/2
New issue at 150 pence
Fortune Oil 7.87 up 0.37
Company in talks with CAO over Bluesky disposal

Other fallers
Hardman Resources 70-3/4 up 7-3/4
Tiof-3 ST2 appraisal well to be suspended
Liontrust Asset management 284 down 26
Management buyout talks off
Trio Holdings 22-1/2 down 2
42 pct annual profits setback
ASOS 71 down 5-1/2
Further post-interims profit-taking