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Traders Thread - Tuesday 3rd May (TRAD)     

Greystone - 01 May 2005 13:37

Greystone - 01 May 2005 13:39 - 4 of 13

Limpsfield's Weekly Chart View
It was much of the same over the past week the FTSE 100 pushed lower, coming within a whisker of the lows for the year and the Dow had some massive intraday swings, ending the week slightly positive. The FTSE 100 is near to its major support and if a recovery is going to start then this is the place.FTSE 100moneyamftsedaily.jpgIntraday FTSEmoneyamftseintra.jpg First of all, the slide that started in mid-February from just below the 5100 levels is still intact. New lows for this move were set last week and we need to see a rally through 4900 to even hint this weakness is out of the way. However, there is an obvious big level at 4765 the lows set in January that were tested twice in that month before the market soared higher. Last wek saw the market come within 10 points of this major support - if 4765 is broken, the index looks bearish short and medium term and December lows sub-4700 are the next target. But for now, although medium term the FTSE remains in its downtrend, any dips below the 4800 area would be viewed as a short term buying opportunity, with stops below the 4765 mark.Dow Jonesmoneyamdowdaily.jpg Intraday Dowmoneyamdowintra.jpg There was plenty of volatility last week once again in the US and the 10,000/10,050 area has continued to support the market. But overall the trend from March remains intact and this is down. No market moves up or down in a straight line so there is still scope for more short term strength, with early April highs around 10,570 expected to be the ultimate barrier for any short term rally. Until this level is cracked, the expectation is for rallies to fail and the market to head lower. It should be another very interesting week. Limpsfield Limpsfield is David Jones, the widely acclaimed charting expert at Shares Magazine who also hosts regular Charting courses for Global Markets Training (www.glomtc.com)

Greystone - 01 May 2005 13:40 - 5 of 13

Hello traders!

Thanks to Limpy for his weekly view of the FTSE and Dow.

We'll give the Thoughters slot a rest for the week in view of the Bank Holiday.

Don't forget that the US markets are still open on Monday....

Could be an intersting shortened week with a dismal outlook expected from Matalan that could colour the whole retail sector. The continued battle for Allied Domecq should continue to run and I expect there will be a lot of recriminations emanating from last week's Marconi disaster.....

See you all Tuesday morning with the latest news......

Have a great weekend!

G.

Digger - 01 May 2005 16:33 - 6 of 13

AFX UK at a glance share guide -
AFX


MARKETS

FTSE 100 4,801.7 up 11.5

FTSE 250 6,728.90 down 9.9

DJIA 10,192.51 up 122.14

Nasdaq Comp 1,921.65 up 17.47

S&P 500 1,156.85 up 13.63

Gold 436.45 usd (432.05 usd)

Oil - Brent June 51.09 usd (52.48 usd)



BREAKING NEWS - WEEKEND

* Private equity firm Permira set to head a 7 bln stg battle for DIY giant B&Q, which has been left wide open to a takeover following last week's shock profits warning; other parties taking a close look at B&Q parent KINGFISHER include Kohlberg Kravis Roberts and Home Depot - Sunday Express

* KINGFISHER chief Gerry Murphy held talks with US home improvement groups Lowe's and Home Depot last week amid speculation about the British DIY giant's future in the wake of a profits warning - Mail on Sunday

* MARKS & SPENCER's biggest shareholders backing Paul Myners to continue as chairman despite opposition from his fellow non-executives - Sunday Telegraph

* MARCONI will ask Patricia Hewitt, the UK Secretary of State for Trade and Industry, to intervene in a desperate attempt to win part of a 10 bln stg supply deal with BT - Independent on Sunday

* Trade and Industry secretary Patricia Hewitt tells troubled telecoms group MARCONI that the government is unable to spend taxpayers' money to protect up to 2,000 jobs at risk at the company - Observer

* MARCONI to speed up efforts to sell itself to American, Chinese or European rivals - Sunday Times

* MARCONI may be sold to its Chinese partners; if a 'for sale' sign is hoisted, Huawei and ZTE are early favourites as buyers - Mail on Sunday

* MARCONI boss Mike Parton will pick up a 1.3 mln stg 'golden parachute' if he manages to find a buyer for the beleaguered telecoms equipment maker - Saturday Mail

* A gaping hole in the pension fund of MARCONI could scupper any attempt to sell the business and may push it towards collapse - Saturday Guardian

* MARCONI's search for a white knight could be scuppered by a 139 mln stg deficit in the telecom equipment maker's pension fund - Saturday Times

* COMPASS GROUP, the embattled contract-catering giant, drawing up plans to sell businesses and return funds to shareholders in an attempt to fend off an investor revolt - Sunday Times

* Two BARCLAYS bankers earn over 20 mln stg each; both Bob Diamond and Roger Jenkins are paid double the combined packages of the executive directors - Sunday Telegraph

* An American consumer-rights group, Inner City Press, called for ROYAL BANK OF SCOTLAND to be included in an investigation of allegedly unfair lending to poor borrowers - Sunday Times

* HSBC launches an angry response to a senior ex-employee's claims that he was sacked because he is gay; former global head of equity trading Peter Lewis suing the bank for 5 mln stg, claiming he was discriminated against and ultimately sacked because of his sexuality - Sunday Express

* Controversial Russian billionaire Oleg Deripaska, a close friend of Chelsea Football Club owner Roman Abramovitch, tells administrators he wants to buy MG Rover - Mail on Sunday

* Russian owner of sports-car maker TVR, 'baby oligarch' Nikolai Smolenski, in talks to buy MG Rover - Observer

* The 5,500 sacked MG Rover workers are given a glimmer of hope by administrators, who say they are in talks with two foreign groups about selling the business intact - Independent on Sunday

* Revealed: documents show Blair's secret plans for war; PM decided on conflict from the start; Blair told war illegal in March 2002; latest leak confirms Goldsmith doubts - Independent on Sunday

* Labour fears for its majority; Blair believes big losses could dent his hopes of full third term; focus on Iraq could benefit Liberal Democrats, strategists warn - Saturday FT

* AEGIS, the UK security firm run by the controversial former British Army colonel Tim Spicer, criticised by US government investigators for its handling of a 154 mln stg security contract in Iraq - Independent on Sunday

* Apax rules out joint bid with Asda in SOMERFIELD battle - Sunday Express

* Shareholders United, the MANCHESTER UNITED supporter group, writes to two of the largest investors in the football club and offers to buy their stakes in an effort to thwart US tycoon Malcolm Glazer's proposed 300 pence-a-share takeover - Saturday FT

* Glazer to launch formal 300 pence per share cash offer to all MANCHESTER UNITED shareholders - Sunday Telegraph

* Nomura backs MANCHESTER UNITED fans to block Glazer bid - Sunday Times

* New mortgage approvals surprise the City by rising to a seven-month high in March, suggesting the housing market may be bottoming out, for now at least - Saturday Guardian

* ALLIED DOMECQ bids hot up as Barcardi boss, Ruben Rodriguez, steps down - The Business

* DIAGEO ready to throw its weight behind the counter-bid for ALLIED DOMECQ by US groups Constellation Brands and Brown-Forman - Observer

* PALADIN RESOURCES, the oil and gas explorer, considering a rival bid for EDINBURGH OIL & GAS, which last week agreed to a 133 mln stg takeover by a Dutch joint venture - Sunday Telegraph

* GLAXOSMITHKLINE spending 157 mln stg to buy Corixa Corp, an American vaccine-technology business - Sunday Times

* Gerald Ronson, chief executive of Heron, understood to be preparing to walk away from a proposed 440 mln stg-plus bid for CREST NICHOLSON - Sunday Times

* Robert Ware, former director at MEPC, secretly lined up to take over as chairman of WYEVALE GARDEN CENTRES by Laxey Partners, the activist investor that is now the group's biggest shareholder - Sunday Times

* IBM to slash 15,000 jobs; Europe will feel the brunt of shareholder backlash - Mail on Sunday

* French oil group Total claims it has convinced people close to Southern Sudan's leader John Garang that the deal WHITE NILE signed last Monday should be overturned - The Business

* BSKYB expected to deliver a strong set of subscriber numbers and profit figures in its third-quarter results on Wednesday - The Business

* German labour laws blocking the sale of Siemens's troubled phonemaking arm - The Business

* Airbus's A350 edging ahead of Boeing's 787 for a 6 bln usd order from Emirates for up to 50 mid-sized jets - The Business

* LAND SECURITIES taking a gamble on the central London office market by starting construction of 360,000 sq ft of office space next to Tate Modern without any tenants lined up - Saturday Times

* Jamie Oliver signs on for another year as a spokesman for J SAINSBURY for 1 mln stg - Saturday FT

* ADVENT GROUP, a Lloyd's of London underwriting business run by two high-profile veterans of the London insurance market, to float on AIM in the next two months for more than 100 mln stg - Sunday Telegraph

* Queue forms to buy Legoland; private equity bidders looking at 400 mln stg deal; fully financed offers expected next month - Saturday FT

* COX, the specialist motorcycle insurer, to recommend shareholders to accept a 297.9 mln stg offer from two private equity firms and Neil Utley, its former chief executive

* SOMERFIELD examining the latest proposals from London & Regional/Nomura and the Baugur/Barclays/Tchenguiz consortium and is expected to get back to the interested parties next week - Saturday FT

* Future agrees to buy 38 magazine titles for 30.5 mln stg from its rival, HIGHBURY HOUSE



SATURDAY PRESS COMMENT

FT

THE LEX COLUMN comments on ALLIED DOMECQ (with licentiousness rife, further bidders, such as DIAGEO, may yet join the fray; for now, however, Allied's shareholders have kept a commendably cool head), Deutsche Bank (behind the veil of of its high costs, Deutsche has some strong (and improving) franchises; these might indeed be capable of a sustainable 25 pct return on equity, implying a one-fifth upside for the shares), Oil risk, Leveraged buy-outs - KLEENEZE (yet to prove itself in the more competitive worlds of TV and internet shopping) - Weekend share watch: WEIR (identified by Dresdner Kleinwort Wasserstein as one of the few UK engineering stocks worth holding, ahead of what it predicts will be a slowdown in many markets), FUN TECHNOLOGIES (cost base is in place and customer numbers are rising; the question is - how long will this remain a one-horse race), CHE (looks a good opportunity, although potential investors may want to wait for clearer proof that management has been spending the capital wisely, which should come next year) - Struggling companies that got back on the rails (ASHTEAD, WS ATKINS, MOTHERCARE, HORNBY, MYTRAVEL, REGENT INNS, LAURA ASHLEY, THORNTONS)



Independent

MARKET REPORT: CORUS (talk of bid from Russian rival), MANGANESE BRONZE (vague rumours of a bid)



Mail

MARKET REPORT: KINGFISHER (Home Depot bid speculation), EMBLAZE (its Mobile division said to be in talks with several network operators about supplying them with handsets), COZART (undisclosed developements, due to be revealed in a few weeks, could provide a much-needed fillip to the shares) - INVESTMENT EXTRA: OCEAN WILSONS (should have further to go); PACIFIC HORIZON (sunshine on the Horizon in Far East)



Telegraph

THE MARKET: HIT ENTERTAINMENT (dealers hope Lions Gate will make an offer by the Takeover Panel's deadline of May 13) - QUESTOR COLUMN: HILTON GROUP (buy), CLINTON CARDS (buy), ROK PROPERTY SOLUTIONS (hold on)



Times

STOCK MARKETS: CORUS (Arcelor confident steel prices will not weaken sharply this year), OXFORD BIOMEDICA (rumours of revived bid interest from Johnson & Johnson) - TEMPUS: Joe Bolger says IT services are expected to deliver the most growth in the IT sector (XANSA, DETICA)



SUNDAY PRESS COMMENT

The Business

THE ALCHEMIST: Clem Chambers tips SOLAR INTEGRATED TECHNOLOGIES - SMALL-CAP INVESTOR: HITACHI CAPITAL (long-term buy) - AIM INVESTOR: AVESCO (buy) - BENCHMARK: Grant Clelland comments on Siemens (Nokia's revival highlights the sicknesss at Siemens), European business, Euro Disney (first signs of a turnaround may be there, but there will be no quick fix)



Mail on Sunday

COMPANIES AND MARKETS: ITV (could be interested in buying budget service Top Up TV, industry sources say), BSKYB (to report an increase of 90,000 subscribers when it unveils its third-quarter results on Wednesday), PROVIDENT RESOURCES (the Irish oil company, backed by Sir Anthony O'Reilly, plans to join AIM next month) - MIDAS: PRINTING.COM (a speculative buy)



Sunday Telegraph

THE MAVERICK: Luke Johnson says shipping is on the crest of a wave (CLARKSONS, BRAEMAR SEASCOPE, FRONTLINE, GLOBAL OCEANIC CARRIERS) - Equity View - BLUE CHIP VALUES: KINGFISHER (sell), ASTRAZENECA (hold on); Look who's trading: GLADSTONE (directors buy stock; while the shares are risky, investors should consider buying on the current weakness); SMALL CAP COMMENT: CARPETRIGHT (sell), CAPITAL RADIO (sell), AXIS-SHIELD (given the strong run in the shares, it is time for investors to bank at least some profits), EGDON RESOURCES (a risky buy) - THE NUMBERS GAME: Tony Jackson comments on SERCO (as a private investor, why would I buy Serco on a yield of 1.1 pct when I can get 2.1 pct on GREGGS?)



Independent on Sunday

Market whispers: SHELL (if dual-listing approved, Shell will see its weighting in the FTSE 100 shoot up from just under 4 pct to well over 7 pct; according to City insiders, fund managers are already selling out of the market's biggest stocks, such as the banks, in readiness to grab a slice of the newly enlarged Shell)



Observer

THROG STREET: Richard Wachman comments on STANDARD LIFE (don't be surprised if the float is pulled and Standard is sold to the highest bidder in a cut-price auction), Toyota (still leader of the pack)



Sunday Times

JUDGMENT DAY: SHOULD YOU BUY SHARES IN AG BARR? Andy Brough, fund manager at Schroders, says wait for the shares to go flat before buying them, and Tim Steer, fund manager at New Star, says buy when the fizz has come out of the share price - INSIDE THE CITY: John Waples comments on LAZARD (pension-fund fracas over Lazard listing), DIAGEO (only a matter of time before Diageo enters the bid battle for ALLIED DOMECQ); MARKET MOLE: SPORTINGBET (M&G's Mike Felton has built up a 600,000-share stake since the start of the year for the M&G Capital unit trust, 100,000 of which were bought last month; however, Dan Nichols sold 150,000 of the Old Mutual UK Select Smaller Companies unit trust's stake in April; Investec's Dan Hanbury has recently sold the Investec UK Small Companies fund's entire stake; vice-chairman Mark Blandford sold 6.5 mln stg of shares at 260 pence) - DIRECTORS' DEALS: DOMINO'S PIZZA)chairman sells 1 mln shares at 275 pence to raise 2.75 mln stg and reduce his holding to just over 9 mln - still a meaty 16.59 pct stake); ATRIUM (two directors sell more than 1 mln shares).

daves dazzlers - 02 May 2005 07:53 - 7 of 13

Morning sunny and bright in north wales.

Greystone - 02 May 2005 22:26 - 8 of 13

Hello traders!

US stocks ended higher on Monday as the market prepared for the Fed's next meeting on interest rates.

The Dow ended up 59.19 points at 10,251.70, posting its first back-to-back gains in more than three weeks. The Nasdaq Composite rose 7 points to 1,928.65 while the S&P500 climbed 5.31 points to 1,162.16.

See you in the morning with UK breaking news.....

G.

Greystone - 03 May 2005 06:31 - 9 of 13

Good morning traders!

In Asia, the Hang Seng has closed marginally better at mid-day, traders cautious ahead of the Fed's interest rate decision later to day. The Tokyo exhchange is closed today.

Off to find some UK news.....

Happy trading!

G.

Greystone - 03 May 2005 06:50 - 10 of 13

SPIRAX SARCO UPGRADED TO 'OUTPERFORM' FROM 'NEUTRAL' BY CSFB

Digger - 03 May 2005 07:25 - 11 of 13

AFX UK at a glance share guide - 4

MARKETS
Hang Seng 13,918.77 up 9.80
Tokyo: Closed

BREAKING NEWS
* Labour extends its poll lead; fall in support of Tories; Blair warns of contest in key marginals; top Conservatives set to call for Howard's resignation - FT
* Trade negotiators from the US and European Union agree to further talks in a bid to end their row over subsidies to rival aircraft makers Boeing and Airbus rather than turn to litigation before the World Trade Organisation - FT
* Baugur-controlled retailer Mosaic Fashions set to become the first foreign company on the Iceland Stock Exchange when it floats next month - FT
* Ofcom examines curbing harmful media content with common labelling plan - FT
* About 4,000 MG Rover workers who lost their jobs after the carmaker went into administration have received redundancy payments averaging 5,000 stg each - FT
* AgCert, an Irish company that taps methane from pig slurry and sells the resulting greenhouse gas credits, due to list on the London Stock Exchange - FT
* John Duffield's New Star Asset Management expected today to take a further step along the road to a stock market listing when the fund manager reports a more than doubling of 2004 operating profit - and forecasts a further increase this year - FT
* Global semiconductor sales increased 13.2 pct in the first quarter, confounding forecasts of a flat year - FT
* Adidas-Salomon to sell its struggling Salomon winter and adventure sports arm to Amer Sports of Finland for about 329 mln stg as the German group focuses on its more profitable clothing and footwear lines - FT
* Ubiquity Software, which develops software for the telecommunications market, plans to list on AIM to raise 20 mln stg of new money - FT
* The first New Zealand company to float on AIM plans to raise 14 mln stg through a placing; Endace has grown out of a research and development project at Waikato University in Hamilton, 80 miles south of Aukland - FT
* LONDON ASIA CAPITAL, the AIM-listed investment company, agrees to act as corporate adviser on two deals in China that will further increase its exposure to the new economic power - FT
* Micro Focus International heading for the largest flotation of a software company since the dotcom bubble burst four years ago; its advisers say its shares will be priced at between 145 pence and 185 pence each, giving it a stock market value of 310 mln stg, based on the mid price of 165 pence - Express

PRESS COMMENT
FT
THE LEX COLUMN comments on Immigrants (popular view that immigrants are lowly paid and a drain on public finances is not borne out by the facts), Neiman Marcus (could well be a while before this shopping trip pays off), Warner Music (if buying Warner's shares, investors should remember that the sunshine ahead remains a forecast, and everybody knows how reliable forecasts can be), MCI - HUVEAUX (this week's election is a boon for John van Kuffeler, chief executive of the AIM-listed group that publishes the political bible Dod's; hits on Epolitix.com, its online service, jumped to 3.6 mln last month)

Express
* DIAGEO (interested in buying ALLIED DOMECQ's Courvoiser cognac and Maker's Mark bourbon, worth a combined 870 mln stg, according to analysts) - THE INVESTMENT STRATEGIST: emerging markets offer a spicy adventure (GARTMORE EMERGING MARKETS OPPORTUNITIES and GENESIS EMERGING MARKETS)

Independent
Small Talk: Stephen Foley comments on SCOTTY (considering plans for a refinancing or a renewed equity fundraising)), VISUAL DEFENCE (floats on Friday), INCAGOLD (raising 1.5 mln stg, valuing it at 5.2 mln stg, with the cash funding the publication of new games), BEDE (speculative investors looking for a risky punt might want to look over Bede), LONDON ASIA CAPITAL (appointed to restructure two Chinese companies)

Druid2 - 03 May 2005 07:29 - 12 of 13

Good morning all. Up day today??

daves dazzlers - 03 May 2005 07:52 - 13 of 13

At least i got the right day tuesday yes,morning all.
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