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Traders Thread - Monday 11th July (TRAD)     

Greystone - 10 Jul 2005 16:37


Greystone - 10 Jul 2005 16:41 - 4 of 11

Greystone - 10 Jul 2005 16:42 - 5 of 11

A Brief Look At The Week Ahead
Following the traumatic events of last week, traders will be looking forward to a week of peace, keen to see if the FTSE can continue its brave push forward. There is plenty to focus on, particularly in the retail segment. The long-awaited sale of Boots' drug division gets under way on Monday when particulars are sent out to those keen to get their hands on this 'jewel in the crown'. CEO, Richard Baker, announced, earlier this year that Boots Healthcare International (BHI) was to be sold off. While the retail side of Boots has suffered from a consumer slowdown and tough trading in recent months, BHI continues to be a jewel in its crown. The City has put a value on the division , which owns Nurofen, Clearasil and Strepsils, of between 1.1bn and 1.4bn. Many big names have been linked with BHI in recent weeks, including Procter & Gamble, Reckitt Benckiser, GlaxoSmithKline, and Johnson & Johnson, as well as various private equity groups. Few in the City are expecting a quick sell-off, with a shortlist of interested parties likely to be drawn up in the coming weeks before a deal is struck towards the end of the year. Boots will not be the only retailer under the spotlight. As well as full-year results from online fashion seller Asos, rumoured to exceed expectations, there will be trading updates from Marks & Spencer, Blacks Leisure, Halfords and Mothercare. Other companies updating on trading or putting out results include Pace Micro, car dealership Reg Vardy and Biofuels International. There is also a number of AGMs scheduled, including Man Group, London Stock Exchange, EMI and BAA, the owner of Heathrow and Gatwick. The airport group also issues a trading statement on Monday. Meanwhile, as markets continue to get back to business as normal following the terrorist attacks, there will be a number of key economic announcements. These include unemployment data, inflation figures for June and an update on the trade balance. It should be another very interesting week. Greystone (Greystone is Alan English, City Editor at MoneyAM.)

Digger - 10 Jul 2005 17:30 - 6 of 11

AFX UK at a glance share guide -

MARKETS
FTSE 100 5,232.2 up 73.9
FTSE 250 7,518.7 up 130.8
DJIA 10,449.14 up 146.85
Nasdaq Comp 2,112.88 up 37.22
S&P 500 1,211.86 up 13.99
Gold 423.25 usd (423.65 usd)
Oil - Brent Aug 58.20 usd (59.28 usd)

BREAKING NEWS - WEEKEND
* Citigroup ponders shelling out 1 bln stg for EGG, the internet bank - Observer
* Apax and Providence Equity Partners considering bidding for the television content arm of TELEWEST, the cable telecoms group which is in merger talks with rival NTL; bankers say that the Telewest content business could be worth between 500 mln stg and 1 bln, though opinons vary widely on the value of the division - Sunday Telegraph
* 'Foreign terrorist cell' was behind London bombings; police believe 'tiny number' of fanatics entered Britain from mainland Europe on false passports - Sunday Telegraph
* Leaked No 10 dossier reveals Al-Qaeda's British recruits - Sunday Times
* Thousands evacuated in Birmingham bomb scare - Sunday Telegraph
* Bidding could hit 1.4 bln stg for jewel in the crown of BOOTS; long-awaited sale of Boots' drug division will get under way tomorrow when particulars are sent out to those keen to get their hands on this lucrative business - Independent on Sunday
* Time Warner, part of a consortium looking at a 6.6 bln stg attempt to acquire ITV, could take a stake of about 30 pct in Britain's biggest commercial broadcaster if a bid goes ahead - Mail on Sunday
* TESCO and Wal-Mart facing expansion trouble in East Europe; data to be released by AT Kearny on Monday will show the markets in Poland, Russia and the Czech Republic - key areas targeted for growth by Tesco for 2005 - are saturated - The Business
* Hertz, the world's leading car rental firm, in the final stage of talks with UK telecoms giant BT about a large IT outsourcing contract for all of its European and UK operations - The Business
* A new national newspaper heahed by Telegraph director Jeremy Deedes and backed by Zac and Ben Goldsmith, sons of the late James Goldsmith, to be launched next spring - Observer
* MARKS & SPENCER is this week expected to report that core sales have dropped again by between 5 and 9 pct after three tough months on the high street - Observer
* BRITISH AIRWAYS chairman Martin Broughton wants the airline's new chief executive, Willie Walsh, to prepare BA for an acquisition-led expansion after he takes full control of the business in the autumn - Sunday Express
* Thames Water misses targets to reduce pipe leaks for the third year in a row - Sunday Telegraph
* Fears growing that the cost of building the facilities for the 2012 Olympic games will soar above the 3.4 bln stg budget - Independent on Sunday
* UK book retailers expect to sell 2 mln copies of Harry Potter and the Half-Blood Prince, the sixth book in author JK Rowling's series about the boy-wizard, within 24 hours of the title's release on Saturday morning; the new title is published in the UK by BLOOMSBURY - Sunday Telegraph
* Airline BMI launches a stinging attack over the state of Heathrow airport, branding it as dirty, untidy and poorly maintained; it has presented the Civil Aviation Authority with a dossier of failures that occurred at BAA-owned airports last year - Independent on Sunday
* UNITED BUSINESS MEDIA close to selling its stake in TV channel Five to German media group RTL for about 200 mln stg - Sunday Express
* 3i GROUP appoints Investec to advise on a flotation or sale of delivery group Target Express; total value of the group thought to be about 250 mln stg - Sunday Express
* 3i GROUP set to bid about 200 mln stg this week for pushchair business Britax - Sunday Express
* Bernie Ecclestone's family trust prepared to sell its remaining 25 pct stake in Formula 1, paving the way for the car manufacturers and teams to secure the ownership they have long sought - The Business
* Advertising chief Martin Sorrell (WPP) gives stark warning that network television channels are under threat as clients divert budgets into non-traditional advertising - The Business
* AMEC launches a push to win 800 mln stg worth of work cleaning up the UK's coal-fired power stations - The Business
* AMEC makes a bid to take over the 1.1 bln stg construction of the Olympic Games site in east London - Sunday Times
* London retailers appear to have lost as much as 200 mln stg after the bomb attacks, as customers stayed at home and shops closed early - Saturday Times
* Baugur withdraws from the consortium hoping to bid for the SOMERFIELD supermarket group a week after the Icelandic investment group's chief executive was charged in his home country with fraud and embezzlement - Saturday FT
* Baugur boss: no more big deals until my name is cleared - Sunday Times
* SOMERFIELD bidders to go ahead without Baugur - Sunday Telegraph
* Argus Retail Group, the division of GUS that owns Argos and Homebase, ousts DIXONS at the top of the 61.5 bln stg home market - Sunday Telegraph
* A key executive has quit Deutsche Asset Management within a day of the group selling its UK fund management arm to ABERDEEN ASSET MANAGEMENT; Peter Harrison has quit after his job was relocated to the US - Saturday FT
* REGENT INNS believed to be preparing to launch a revised 93 mln stg-plus bid this week for rival bar operator URBIUM - Sunday Times
* ASSOCIATED BRITISH FOODS, owner of Primark, hopes to finalise a deal this weekend to buy the Littlewoods chain for about 500 mln stg - Mail on Sunday
* Primark poised to clinch 400 mln stg takeover of Littlewoods' stores - Sunday Telegraph
* Mysterious Swedish investor behind Peak Resources, the company which has the right to buy the best assets of REGAL PETROLEUM, will fly to London this week for crunch talks with the oil and gas company's management - Sunday Telegraph
* DIY giant Focus being reported to Trade Minister Alun Michael after it rips up contracts with suppliers and forces tougher payment terms on them - Mail on Sunday - Mail on Sunday
* ICI seals first deal after for years of sell-offs; it will pay 25.5 mln usd for Celanese, a German emulsion powders business
* WHITE NILE reaches agreement with the Ethiopian government to search for oil in the southern part of the country
* ACAMBIS exits talks to acquire a significant vaccines business, believed to be a division of Baxter International - Saturday Independent
* Peter Hartz, Volkswagen's head of human resources, offers to resign over the scandal that has shed light on the ties between managers, unions and politics at the carmaker - Saturday FT
* Two bidders for MG Rover to discuss teaming up to head off a sale of the carmaker to Nanjing Automobile, the company poised to shift most production to eastern China; David James, the turnround specialist leading a 40 mln stg bid dubbed Project Kimber, and NM Rothschild, representing Shanghai Automotive Industry Corp, agree to consider pooling their resources - Saturday FT
* MG Rover about to fall into Chinese hands after the carmaker's administrators select Nanjing Auto as the preferred bidder - Saturday Mail
* Suitors line up for NCP, operator of almost 600 car parks in Britain, with likely bids near 550 mln stg - Saturday FT
* Sports World pitches in for UMBRO; Lillywhites tycoon, Mike Ashley, has 8 mln stg stake in maker of England strip - Saturday Guardian

SATURDAY PRESS COMMENT
FT
THE LEX COLUMN comments on prime retail space (investors are entitled to ask why retailers have not made their property work harder), Global savings, Morgan Stanley, German governance - PSION (though the shares have already had a reasonable run, they haven't finished yet) - PEACOCK (attractive) - Weekend share watch: ROYAL BANK OF SCOTLAND (counter argument to an earnings-led stock recovery is that RBS's price to book value - on an equity Tier 1 capital basis, a measure of its asset cushion - is the highest among its peers), HANSON (could rise further), ALEXANDRA (a slight discount to JOHNSON SERVICE, its larger peer; further improvement should be fuelled by acquisitions) ANALYST WATCH: JD WETHERSPOON (pub operator's glass half empty; analysts split on prospects as group struggles with rising costs and stronger competition - MONEY & BUSINESS p.23) - FUND MANAGER IN FOCUS: Karen Robertson of Standard Life UK Equity High Income Growth tips o2

Independent
NO PAIN, NO GAIN: Derek Pain comments on bids for MANCHESTER UNITED and JENNINGS BROTHERS (any shareholder still savouring the prospect of holding out should reconsider; there really is no point in being out in the cold) - MARKET REPORT: CABLE & WIRELESS (sector consolidation hopes), ICAP (renewed speculation it will demerge its old-fashioned telephone-broking business), EURODIS ELECTRON (fears that negotiations with an electronics distributor may be off)

Express
MARKET REPORT: PHOTO-ME (prospect that higher security will increase demand for ID cards)

Guardian
Market forces: COLT TELECOM (talk of possible bid from US finance house Fidelity), NORD ANGLIA (talk that Principle Capital, controlled by former Active Value manager Brian Meyerson, is looking to increase its 9.1 pct stake), INCAGOLD (potential of mobile phone content)

Mail
INVESTMENT EXTRA: Brian O'Connor comments on oil stocks (all the signs are that these companies will carry on making big money; gas group BG, at 477 pence, still looks very attractive) - MARKET REPORT: EXEL (whispers yet again of a 950 pence per share cash offer from Deutsche Post), CADBURY SCHWEPPES (excited by rumours that PepsiCo is planning a takeover bid for Danone), SMITHS GROUP (reports of a pending broker's circular), REGUS (continuing speculation about a 120 pence per share private equity bid), PROVIDENT FINANCIAL (Polish government passes a bill which seeks to introduce an interest rate ceiling)

Telegraph
THE MARKET: WIGMORE GROUP (talk that the group could be involved in a reverse takeover) - QUESTOR: MICHAEL PAGE (buy); SMALL CAP VALUES: M&C SAATCHI (look cheap), ERINACEOUS GROUP (be ready to take any profits), TRL ELECTRONICS (buy)

Times
STOCK MARKETS: SMITHS GROUP (hopes of increased demand for its bomb-detection equipment after Thursday's attacks), KINGFISHER (revived takeover rumours), J SAINSBURY (boardroom buying, including Justin King, chief executive, who purchased 60,000 shares), COLT TELECOM (hopes that a strong performance from the German and Portuguese operations could trigger upgrades to forecasts), MARCH NETWORKS (hopes that Thursday's attacks could lead to its surveillance technology being taken up by London Underground), NANOSCIENCE (talk it is to announce a stake in a new venture) - STELLA SHAMOON'S SHARE OF THE MONTH: Dassault Systemes (she buys at 40.10 eur; alternatively, they can be bought in sterling and placed in a tax-free maxi-Isa)

SUNDAY PRESS COMMENT
The Business
THE ALCHEMIST: Clem Chambers says leave online gaming to the high-rollers and put aside some TESCO - INSIDE THE MARKET -GROWTH INVESTOR: PREMIER OIL (offers and attractive risk-reward opportunity); SMALL-CAP INVESTOR: VEGA (buy); AIM INVESTOR: CARDPOINT (buy for the long term) - BENCHMARK: Grant Clelland comments on French utility privatisation, Central banks, Havas (leadership vacuum)

Mail on Sunday
MIDAS: Midas portfolio now sports an average gain of 11.1 pct since the experiment began last November, slightly outperforming the FTSE All-Share's 10.8 pct gain - COMPANIES AND MARKETS: CANACORD CAPITAL (faces its biggest blow to date with the imminent loss of key client oil exploration firm SOCO INTERNATIONAL), MARKS & SPENCER (poised to report its seventh successive quarter of falling sales when chief executive Stuart Rose delivers a trading update at this Wednesday's AGM), DIXONS (to fight AMD chips writ), IPC (understood to be interested in buying Exchange & Mart and Auto Exchange, which have been put up for sale by UNITED BUSINESS MEDIA)
Sunday Express
Firms with look of Olympic winners: MORGAN SINDALL, WSP, WHITE YOUNG GREEN, ENNSTONE, WORKSPACE, MARSHALLS, MOUCHEL PARKMAN, RPS GROUP, BERKELEY GROUP, CREST NICHOLSON (FINANCIAL SUNDAY EXPRESS p.4) -

Observer
THROG STREET: Heather Connon comments on AMVESCAP (hard to think of any buyer who would want to take on all the pieces of the international empire which chief executive Charles Brady has so painstakingly constructed; it could mean that the management buyout which, rumour has it, management at (British operation) Invesco Perpetual have long dreamed of, could become a reality), RHM (should find plenty of appetite for its float)

Independent on Sunday
MARKET MOVER: AMVESCAP (thought to be most attractive to US regional banks looking to build up a presence in the fund management sector)

Sunday Telegraph
EQUITY VIEW - BLUE CHIP VALUES: BP (keep buying), HAMMERSON (those tempted to bank their profits should hang on at least until August); Look who's trading: FKI (chief executive and chairman buy stock; the shares are a risky recovery play); SMALL CAP COMMENT: OXFORD BIOMEDICA (time to bank soem profits), SPICE HOLDINGS (there is further to go), INTERIOR SERVICES (trading on a price/earnings ratio of 16 times, which looks too cheap), BEGBIES TRAYNOR (shares have doubled but we believe there is more to come) - THE NUMBERS GAME: Tony Jackson comments on AGGREKO (it strikes me that the company is a survivor)

Sunday Times
JUDGMENT DAY: SHOULD YOU BUY SHARES IN RADSTONE TECHNOLOGY Andy Brough, fund manager at Schroders, says buy below 270 pence, and Tim Steer, fund manager at New Star, says buy - INSIDE THE CITY: Dominic O'Connell comments on AMVESCAP (take the profits now), EUROTUNNEL (stay away)

Digger - 10 Jul 2005 17:33 - 7 of 11

ITV

Greystone - 11 Jul 2005 06:18 - 8 of 11

Good morning traders!

In Asia this morning, the Hang Seng has closed the first half up 115.41 points at 14,079.88, with the Nikkei trading similarly brightly, up 126.57 points at 11,692.56 when I last checked.

Oil prices dropped below $59 a barrel in Asian trade after Hurricane Dennis, which wreaked havoc in the US, missed Gulf of Mexico refining facilities.

Back with UK news in a moment.........

Happy trading!

G.

Greystone - 11 Jul 2005 06:21 - 9 of 11

NORTHUMBRIAN WATER CUT TO 'UNDERPERFORM' VS 'IN-LINE' AT GOLDMAN SACHS

MINERVA UPGRADED TO 'BUY' AT MERRILL LYNCH

BRADFORD & BINGLEY INITIATED 'NEUTRAL' AT UBS; PRICE TARGET 320P

SCOTTISH & NEWCASTLE UPGRADED TO 'OVERWEIGHT' VS 'EQUAL-WEIGHT' AT LEHMAN

AB FOODS BUYS LITTLEWOODS FOR 409 MLN STG

Digger - 11 Jul 2005 06:54 - 10 of 11

Outlook Shares

Digger - 11 Jul 2005 07:48 - 11 of 11

MARKETS
Tokyo: Nikkei 11,688.21 up 122.22
Hang Seng 14,079.88 up 115.41

BREAKING NEWS - MONDAY
* Blair rejects bomb probe calls; PM believes inquiry would be a diversion from funding culprits; Clarke to urge EU co-operation in fight against terrorism - FT
* Mitsubishi Heavy expresses interest in buying Westinghouse Electric, the US nuclear plant manufacturer, from British Nuclear Fuels, for about 1.15 bln stg - FT
* New orders booked by the UK aerospace industry rose by 28 pct year-on-year in 2004 to 22.6 bln stg, the highest level since 1998 - FT
* Asda may replace Baugur in bid for SOMERFIELD - Guardian
* Union chiefs back Shanghai Automotive's Rover bid - FT
* Former Ford boss, Martin Leach, flies in for MG Rover revival talks - Times
* ITV to sell education arm Granada Learning; it could fetch 80 mln stg
* Macquarie expected to announce the 70 mln stg acquisition if Inmedia Communications, the UK satellite services company - FT

MONDAY PRESS COMMENT
FT
THE LEX COLUMN comments on European M&A, Marketing, Valuing synergies - TESCOM SOFTWARE TESTING SYSTEMS (begins trading on AIM today)
Independent
Small Talk: Stephen Foley comments on SYNERGY HEALTHCARE (8.7 mln stg acquisition of SHILOH could prove controversial), EASIER (rebels fight on), RESEARCH NOW (company is raising a little more than 4 mln stg for expansion), LONGBRIDGE INTERNATIONAL (Noble & Co, reinstalled as adviser, expected to pursue a plan for a reverse takeover of the company and a refinancing), NORD ANGLIA EDUCATION (attracts the attention of Brian Myerson, one half of the old Active Value duo)
Express
THE AIM MARKET: DAWNAY DAY CARPATHIAN (hoping to raise up to 150 mln stg through an AIM listing to invest in shopping centres, supermarkets and retail warehouses in eastern and central Europe), ASIAN CITRUS (floating on AIM towards the end of the month)
Times
SMALLER STOCK TO WATCH: ELY (the Irish sale-and-leaseback company will announce plans early this week to float on AIM) - DEAL OF THE DAY: RESEARCH NOW (the survey information provider to the market research industry is planning to list on AIM)
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