Bought into this one today--not much interest in it at the moment but it's internet based and in a growth business. If it performs like ACG or DFD--I'm on to a winner!! Anyone else interested? Extremely positive trading statement now out-company doing well and sp rising. I'm hoping to catch DFD eventually!

Moneyplus
Thanks for the info.
Giggin

Well they won't be paying any tax for a while with 500k+ losses on group B/S.

Net loss before tax of 83,765 for 4 months to 31st October 2005 plus the revenues of 39,232 at the operating company level plus the 3 group directors' salaries totalling 54,000 makes a total operating/overhead cost of 176,997 X 3 = 531,000 for a full year. This suppoprts 6 operational staff (including marketing director at 42k p.a. I have assumed) capable of handling 70 case a month.

With revenues for 4 months to 31st October annualised to 117,000 (how many cases per month does this equal?), there is some way to go before trading break even and even further to pay of the accumulated losses to start paying a dividend.

They have working capital of about 1.2m less costs - net, say about 2 years gross operating/overhead costs, or approx. 2.5 years of net losses at current revenue levels. Will they reach trading breakeven before they run out of capital?

Prudence suggests waiting for the interim accounts to 31st December (due by 31st March) to see how revenues have grown, and how many transactions that represents, since October and what future prospects appear to be at that time.

I sold out of DFD too early albeit after a good profit (and ABM after a small loss!) - now look at them racing away. So this is an area that has worked in the past, and insolvency rates are still accelerating, but how good are the management and how good is their bespoke software and website? The latter is quite comprehensive and friendly, although a little cluttered for my taste on the home page before you get to the meat of what they are trying to sell you.

Hmm . . . interesting - will watch.

Thanks, mp.

sd

Stockdog.
This one could be very interesting as the figures from DEBT, DFD and ACG are, I think, just the tip of the iceberg as the debt problems start to unfold as time goes by.
I have done very well with DEBT and ABM so will watch this carefully.
Giggin

cheers stockdog-welcome your comments, keep watching.

nice little tick up--interest is rising in this one. hope the tip sheets notice it soon.

a few buys today but so far no rise in sp--results in march then hopefully more interest. debts and iva's are racing ahead look at ACG. I stupidly sold far too early on that one.

not as stupidly early as I sold DFD, MP!
quite tempted to dip a toe in, but need to extract a toe's worth from some other share first.

sd

I know the feeling --I'm anxious to pick up some EPY which is rising every day can't decide which to slice CHP or SEO.

MP, tempted to use some rather stagnant SEO money to pick up a few opportunistic profits and then go back into SEO later - we'll see. I'm holding CHP for the PRIMAVERA announcement.

Still probably wait for CLEA resuslts - may miss a few pence on the price, but the risk should be much clearer by then.

sd

Taking the trading update figures from todays finals (per se numbers not informative) and the 4 months trading results from my post #5 above, I have guessed the following

IVA's per month
jul 6, aug 8, sep 9, oct 10, nov 11, dec 12 = the quarterly totals of 23 and 35 respectively as given in the update today.

This gives a number of 33 IVA's for 4 months to Oct 05 making a turnover (as above) of 39,232 = 1,189 per IVA.

Taking the overhead as above of 531,000 pa and adding 4 staff at an average of 30k plus on costs of 25% = 681,000 annual overhead.

To break even we need 681,000 / 1,189 = 573 IVA's p.a or 48 per month, 144 per quarter.

Still some way to go, but let's see if we can keep growing the IVA's by 50% per month.

From Jan to Mar a further 138 serious prospects - let's say 50% mature = 69 for 2.5 months X 6/5 = 83 for the quarter - more than double last quarter and 57.5% of quarterly break even.

More later when I have time. Still not in.

sd

cheers sd-the results haven't moved the sp at all. very up beat comments from the CEO and I like the linkup with john charcol. still very early days to gain much reward from this one but great prospects IMO. anyone else interested out there??

More . . .

Year to June 2006
Assume (wild estimate, but not unrealistic) IVA volume grows by another 50% for last quarter. we have 23 + 35 + 83 + 123 = 264 X 1,189 = 313,896 turnover, less costs of 681,000 = loss for year of 367,104. Even if this is 0.5m they have 1.2 m on the BS from January's fund-raising to support it.

Year to June 2007
Even wilder, assume they grow revenues by 25%, 20%, 15% and 10% in successive quarters to give number of IVA's as 154, 184, 212, 233 = 783 X 1,189 = 930,987 less overhead (10% larger than 2006) of 749,100, gives a profit of 181,887. EPS of 0.07p, thus a 2 year forward PE of 59 - wow, pricey!

Breakeven/Dividends
If they grow net profits by 15% p.a. thereafter they will break even in 2011 - quite some time to wait for the deficit to be cleansed as a prelude to dividends becoming payable. However they could write off the share premium account of 336,766 towards achieving this position a year earlier. 3 year forward EPS of 0.08p and PE of 52, with a PEG of 3.43 is not really exciting enough.

They would need to grow net profits by a lot more than 15% p.a on top of some pretty big increases in 2007 to make a forward rating look attractive. Just how big is the market for best practice IVA solutions to debt. DFD have a monthly rate of 174 , but charging about 2,833 per case (if I read their last update correctly, which was pretty confusing I found). Can CLEA grow its unit value as well as its likely looking case-rate?

I need to get a clearer idea of their forward trajectory before being persuaded currently. Love to hear anyone else's thoughts on the above.

sd

Always interested but:

Rank on alex appauling - over 800k+:

QUOTE: 'ClearDebt is predominantly web-based and mainly attracts its customers through that same medium by way of natural search, search engine optimisation, cost per click, recommendations and email newsletters, although it has begun a more active marketing campaign, as detailed below.'

Since: 'predominantly web-based and mainly attracts its customers through that same medium' they will have to seriously improve their rankings to get anywhere near the required IVA's quoted above IMO...

Diablo

Please explain "Rank on alex appauling - over 800k+:" - I'm unfamiliar with either Alex or what 800k+ means.

Thanks

sd

Stockdog

Alexa.com gives you a reference point for traffic on websites collated from users of alexa's browser tools....

alexa.com

If you visit the site, you are able to see worldwide rankings... try moneyam VS advfn as an example...

Other indicators of potential 'type-in' traffic (people who actually type the name into their browser) are 'overture keyword suggestion'...

inventory.uk.overture.com/d/searchinventory/suggestion/

(indicates the amont of times a particular keyword is typed into search engines - in this case 'clear debt' VS say 'debt consolidation' )... The higher the number of searches, the more probability of type-ins...

Another factor is link popularity... Shows google, msn, yahoo links... High link pop = high chance of surfer visits - in this case under 3000 - should really be 10-20+ times this for any 'half - serious' traffic from this angle ... Domain names are 'dropped' (discarded) every day with much higher link popularity...

http://www.linkpopularity.com/

Finally, google page ranking...

googlerankings.com

Not sure about others but how many of us go past page one or two really?

All these tools help indicate better the facts regarding a sites actual visitors...

When a business says that depends mostly on the web traffic for business, these figures and results are essential to investors... Takes away 'spin'....

Hope that helps... a la - dot com bubble burst...

With spin on debt consolidation and possible dot com revival.... We need to look outside of the box IMO...

666

666 - thanks, still not totally clear, but get the general message which ties in with my own estimation of how fast they have to grow consumated business to cover their costs. I'll still keep watching for the next 6 months to see how they do.

Still regret my stupidity (cupidity?) in selling DFD at 209 - now look at it. Still I made good money on it when I was in. I guess that 's the third emotion of investing isn't it - fear, greed and regret

sd

SD

Debt consolidation is the buzz and I'd think it's set to grow much, much bigger...

Key I've found with any dot coms is to not trust the press releases but try to gauge the facts... Thankfully, we have more data at our disposal tan back in 2000...

This one is worth watching as with all the debt cos...

I'd certainly be looking for increased traffic and good RNS though...

Re: DFD - suppose a lesson learned... Don't be too hard on yourself (easier said than done) ... the market regularly gives good gains.... It's always a dilemma, do I take and run or hold.... I used to hold... Now I take and run because I know another trade is waiting round the corner anyhow...

Key thing I learned is, DON'T case the market... let it come to you....

All the best...

666

I suppose comfort, even from the Devil, is still comfort -thanks!

sd

stockdog: found you! You're as bad as my Westie! Seems that there are some 240m shares in issue so a cap of about 9m. So the key questions are 'when they will make it to profit?' and 'what is the risk of failure?' They claim capacity for 100 IVAs per month which would appear to be turnover of not less than 1m and pbt of around 250K (very much ball-park). Taking valuation from DEBT that could justify cap of 12m and sp of 5p. If they have decent team they shouldn't fail altogether given the expansion of the market. Don't seem that cheap but reckon there is likely to be a run on them at some stage. Onto the watchlist!

Eric

Eric-did you just buy that 30000?? check their website-I thought it quite good though some have called it messy. I'm sticking with this one after also watching BEG rise and rise without buying in-coward or what!!